 Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Politics | No | $920 | 92¢ | 97¢ | +$50 |
 Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?Politics | No | $940 | 94¢ | 97¢ | +$26 |
 Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?Politics | No | $153 | 82¢ | 95¢ | +$23 |
 Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?Tech | Yes | $39 | 28¢ | 61¢ | +$46 |
 Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?Politics | Yes | $64 | 26¢ | 25¢ | -$2 |
 Will OpenAI's Astra model debut as #1? (Text Arena)Tech | No | $36 | 79¢ | 87¢ | +$4 |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech | Yes | $21 | 52¢ | 82¢ | +$12 |
 Will OpenAI be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?Tech | No | $28 | 55¢ | 62¢ | +$4 |
 Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,089,000 and $1,125,000 on September 30?Economy | Yes | $27 | 58¢ | 61¢ | +$1 |
 Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?Tech | No | $23 | 51¢ | 50¢ | -$1 |
 Will Meta be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?Tech | Yes | $13 | 18¢ | 29¢ | +$8 |
 Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?Tech | Yes | $7 | 29¢ | 64¢ | +$8 |
 Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher?Tech | No | $13 | 83¢ | 85¢ | +$0 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?Tech | Yes | $10 | 77¢ | 89¢ | +$2 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1505 by December 31, 2026?Tech | Yes | $9 | 54¢ | 63¢ | +$1 |
 Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by September 30, 2026?Tech | No | $9 | 61¢ | 67¢ | +$1 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?Tech | Yes | $9 | 65¢ | 64¢ | -$0 |
 Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $2.75 on September 30, 2026?Tech | Yes | $8 | 22¢ | 24¢ | +$1 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?Tech | Yes | $5 | 52¢ | 89¢ | +$3 |
 Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech | Yes | $7 | 7.8¢ | 6.5¢ | -$1 |
 Will MiniMax have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of September 2026?Tech | Yes | $6 | 64¢ | 69¢ | +$0 |
| Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech | Yes | $4 | 20¢ | 28¢ | +$2 |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.00 and $3.25 on September 30, 2026?Tech | Yes | $3 | 17¢ | 28¢ | +$2 |
 Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 11:15AM-11:20AM ETCrypto | UpResolved | $3 | 54¢ | 100¢ | +$2 |
 Will ByteDance have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of September 2026?Tech | No | $5 | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$0 |
 Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?Tech | Yes | $4 | 88¢ | 94¢ | +$0 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?Tech | Yes | $3 | 68¢ | 92¢ | +$1 |
| Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by November 30, 2026?Tech | Yes | $5 | 92¢ | 87¢ | -$0 |
| Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?Tech | No | $4 | 88¢ | 84¢ | -$0 |
| Will Google be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?Tech | Yes | $3 | 24¢ | 30¢ | +$1 |
 Benedict Wong as Wong?Culture | Yes | $4 | 72¢ | 77¢ | +$0 |
| Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,125,000 and $1,161,000 on September 30?Economy | Yes | $3 | 13¢ | 15¢ | +$0 |
 Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 11?Tech | No | $6 | 37¢ | 23¢ | -$2 |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on September 30, 2026?Tech | Yes | $3 | 18¢ | 24¢ | +$1 |
| Will MiniMax have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026?Tech | Yes | $2 | 37¢ | 69¢ | +$2 |
 ChatGPT Outage by September 15, 2026?Tech | Yes | $3 | 54¢ | 54¢ | -$0 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Tech | Yes | $2 | 7.0¢ | 8.8¢ | +$1 |
| Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of September 2026?Tech | No | $4 | 21¢ | 14¢ | -$1 |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?Tech | No | $2 | 10¢ | 12¢ | +$0 |
 Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?Tech | No | $3 | 43¢ | 42¢ | -$0 |
| Will OpenAI be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?Tech | Yes | $2 | 20¢ | 19¢ | -$0 |
| Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?Tech | Yes | $2 | 17¢ | 16¢ | -$0 |
| Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?Tech | No | $2 | 22¢ | 17¢ | -$1 |
 Will "Day and Night" - Carly Rae Jepsen first week album sales be less than 30k?Culture | No | $2 | 27¢ | 28¢ | +$0 |
| Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of September 2026?Tech | Yes | $4 | 23¢ | 8.3¢ | -$3 |
| Next Kimi K model released by September 30, 2026?Tech | No | $1 | 13¢ | 14¢ | +$0 |
| Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?Tech | Yes | $4 | 54¢ | 21¢ | -$2 |
| Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by September 30, 2026?Tech | No | $4 | 75¢ | 26¢ | -$3 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?Tech | Yes | $12 | 61¢ | 7.3¢ | -$10 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ETCrypto | UpResolved | $3 | 65¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 11:30AM-11:35AM ETCrypto | DownResolved | $3 | 52¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 5:25AM-5:30AM ETCrypto | UpResolved | $2 | 49¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 10:40AM-10:45AM ETCrypto | UpResolved | $3 | 52¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 7:05PM-7:10PM ETCrypto | UpResolved | $3 | 62¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ETCrypto | UpResolved | $3 | 67¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ETCrypto | UpResolved | $3 | 50¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ETCrypto | UpResolved | $2 | 47¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ETCrypto | UpResolved | $3 | 50¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ETCrypto | DownResolved | $2 | 43¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ETCrypto | DownResolved | $3 | 60¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ETCrypto | UpResolved | $4 | 77¢ | 0.0¢ | -$4 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ETCrypto | DownResolved | $3 | 52¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ETCrypto | UpResolved | $0 | 5.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$0 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 10PM ETCrypto | DownResolved | $3 | 47¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 12:00PM-4:00PM ETCrypto | DownResolved | $118 | 32¢ | 0.0¢ | -$118 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ETCrypto | DownResolved | $5 | 52¢ | 0.0¢ | -$5 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 9:40PM-9:45PM ETCrypto | UpResolved | $3 | 53¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ETCrypto | UpResolved | $2 | 31¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ETCrypto | DownResolved | $4 | 78¢ | 0.0¢ | -$4 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ETCrypto | UpResolved | $3 | 65¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ETCrypto | UpResolved | $3 | 56¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 6:20AM-6:25AM ETCrypto | UpResolved | $3 | 62¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ETCrypto | DownResolved | $3 | 52¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ETCrypto | UpResolved | $3 | 51¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ETCrypto | UpResolved | $3 | 53¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 1:40AM-1:45AM ETCrypto | DownResolved | $2 | 47¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ETCrypto | UpResolved | $3 | 58¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 9:25PM-9:30PM ETCrypto | UpResolved | $3 | 53¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ETCrypto | UpResolved | $4 | 75¢ | 0.0¢ | -$4 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ETCrypto | UpResolved | $3 | 61¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ETCrypto | UpResolved | $3 | 51¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ETCrypto | DownResolved | $2 | 49¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
 Game Handicap: TES (-2.5) vs Team Secret Whales (+2.5)eSports | Top EsportsResolved | $299 | 60¢ | 0.0¢ | -$299 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ETCrypto | UpResolved | $2 | 48¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ETCrypto | UpResolved | $3 | 54¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ETCrypto | UpResolved | $3 | 51¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 7:00AM-7:05AM ETCrypto | DownResolved | $3 | 51¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ETCrypto | DownResolved | $1 | 28¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?World Cup | YesResolved | $54 | 35¢ | 0.0¢ | -$54 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 11:00PM-11:05PM ETCrypto | DownResolved | $3 | 50¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 8:00AM-8:05AM ETCrypto | UpResolved | $3 | 58¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ETCrypto | DownResolved | $4 | 72¢ | 0.0¢ | -$4 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ETCrypto | UpResolved | $3 | 56¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ETCrypto | UpResolved | $3 | 62¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ETCrypto | UpResolved | $4 | 20¢ | 0.0¢ | -$4 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ETCrypto | UpResolved | $3 | 55¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ETCrypto | UpResolved | $3 | 58¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ETCrypto | DownResolved | $3 | 52¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ETCrypto | DownResolved | $2 | 46¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 2:00PM-2:05PM ETCrypto | UpResolved | $4 | 75¢ | 0.0¢ | -$4 |