← Whale Watch

vermeshel

Predicting since Jul 202454 markets tradedPolymarket profile ↗

Down $1.1K on Crypto markets since Jul 2024.

Right now: $1.0K across 3 Crypto markets.

All-time PnL
+$0
This year
+$0
Last 30 days
+$0
Portfolio value
$0

Deep stats

Bucko Oracle
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Profit over time

What they are betting now

MarketSideStakeEntryNowPnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?PoliticsNo$87087¢95¢+$75
Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?TechYesResolved$4816¢100¢+$252
Russian strike on a NATO member by March 31?PoliticsNoResolved$18693¢100¢+$14
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February?CryptoNoResolved$199100¢100¢+$1
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?TechYesResolved$3428¢100¢+$89
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?TechYesResolved$3531¢100¢+$79
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?TechYesResolved$3938¢100¢+$64
Russian strike on Poland by June 30?PoliticsNoResolved$4994¢100¢+$3
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026?TechYes$333¢33¢+$0
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?TechOpenAI$526¢11¢-$3
Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?TechYesResolved$014¢100¢+$1
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?CryptoYesResolved$224¢0.0¢-$2
Will OpenAI have the third-best AI model at the end of February 2026?TechYesResolved$103.3¢0.0¢-$10
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?TechYesResolved$202.0¢0.0¢-$20
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 22?CryptoYesResolved$71.7¢0.0¢-$7
Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on Humanity’s Last Exam?TechYesResolved$88.0¢0.0¢-$8
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for math on March 31?TechYesResolved$47.0¢0.0¢-$4
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?TechYesResolved$91.6¢0.0¢-$9
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?TechNoResolved$7013¢0.0¢-$70
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 22?CryptoYesResolved$1.0K20¢0.0¢-$1.0K
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?TechYesResolved$20.2¢0.0¢-$2
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?TechYesResolved$20.2¢0.0¢-$2
Will OpenAI have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026?TechYesResolved$93.1¢0.0¢-$9
Will xAI have the third-best AI model at the end of February 2026?TechYesResolved$33.1¢0.0¢-$3
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February?CryptoYesResolved$66.4¢0.0¢-$6
Will Anthropic have the third-best AI model at the end of February 2026?TechYesResolved$26.2¢0.0¢-$2
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February?CryptoYesResolved$74.3¢0.0¢-$7
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?TechYesResolved$29.5¢0.0¢-$2
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?TechYesResolved$2020¢0.0¢-$20
Will any xAI Grok model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?TechYesResolved$09.0¢0.0¢-$0
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?TechYesResolved$842¢0.0¢-$8
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 22?CryptoYesResolved$10.2¢0.0¢-$1
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?TechYesResolved$115.3¢0.0¢-$11
Gemini 3.5 released by April 30?TechYesResolved$319.1¢0.0¢-$31
Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?TechYesResolved$313.9¢0.0¢-$31
Will OpenAI GPT score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?TechYesResolved$217¢0.0¢-$2

Where the money comes from

Realized + open PnL by category

Crypto-$1.1K
Tech+$230
Politics+$93
Biggest hit
+$122
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 21?
Toughest beat
-$87
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 10?

Recent moves

  • Bought Yes · Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$203mo ago
  • Bought Yes · Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?$483mo ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$23mo ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$03mo ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$53mo ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$33mo ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$33mo ago
  • Bought Yes · Gemini 3.5 released by April 30?$53mo ago
  • Bought Yes · Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?$23mo ago
  • Bought No · Russian strike on a NATO member by March 31?$864mo ago
  • Bought No · Russian strike on a NATO member by March 31?$44mo ago
  • Bought Yes · Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?$04mo ago