 Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027?Tech | Yes | $256 | 33¢ | 35¢ | +$14 |
 Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech | Yes | $142 | 26¢ | 35¢ | +$47 |
 Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech | Yes | $109 | 9.3¢ | 9.5¢ | +$3 |
 Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?Tech | No | $80 | 34¢ | 41¢ | +$15 |
 Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech | No | $38 | 24¢ | 41¢ | +$25 |
| Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?Tech | Yes | $23 | 9.2¢ | 23¢ | +$33 |
 Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1500?Tech | Yes | $50 | 26¢ | 27¢ | +$1 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?Tech | No | $49 | 25¢ | 24¢ | -$3 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech | No | $21 | 17¢ | 31¢ | +$17 |
 Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?Politics | Yes | $35 | 33¢ | 36¢ | +$3 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?Tech | No | $54 | 40¢ | 26¢ | -$19 |
 Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics | No | $100 | 52¢ | 17¢ | -$68 |
 Will Microsoft release a new MAI thinking model by September 30, 2026?Tech | Yes | $15 | 22¢ | 26¢ | +$3 |
 Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech | Yes | $15 | 1.9¢ | 1.9¢ | +$0 |
 Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?Politics | Yes | $50 | 11¢ | 3.2¢ | -$35 |
 Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech | Yes | $17 | 0.8¢ | 0.7¢ | -$3 |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1510?Tech | Yes | $14 | 11¢ | 11¢ | -$1 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?Tech | No | $12 | 6.0¢ | 5.5¢ | -$1 |
| Will Z.ai be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?Tech | Yes | $3 | 3.3¢ | 7.1¢ | +$4 |
| Will OpenAI be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026?Tech | Yes | $1 | 6.0¢ | 32¢ | +$6 |
 Will NTE: Neverness to Everness win Best Mobile Game at the 2026 Game Awards?Other sports | Yes | $12 | 13¢ | 7.1¢ | -$5 |
| Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026?Tech | Yes | $5 | 9.7¢ | 10¢ | +$0 |
 Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech | Yes | $8 | 1.9¢ | 0.7¢ | -$5 |
 Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech | Yes | $7 | 2.0¢ | 0.8¢ | -$4 |
 Will Alibaba be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?Tech | Yes | $22 | 29¢ | 3.3¢ | -$20 |
 Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech | Yes | $9 | 2.3¢ | 0.5¢ | -$7 |
 Will SpaceXAI be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?Tech | Yes | $4 | 2.5¢ | 0.8¢ | -$3 |
 US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Politics | NoResolved | $10 | 4.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$10 |
 Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $10 | 51¢ | 0.0¢ | -$10 |
 Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in June 2026?Politics | NoResolved | $5 | 29¢ | 0.0¢ | -$5 |
 Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?Politics | NoResolved | $14 | 39¢ | 0.0¢ | -$14 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $61 | 3.8¢ | 0.0¢ | -$61 |
| Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026?Tech | NoResolved | $25 | 12¢ | 0.0¢ | -$25 |
 US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Politics | NoResolved | $45 | 42¢ | 0.0¢ | -$45 |
 US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?Politics | YesResolved | $5 | 2.5¢ | 0.0¢ | -$5 |
 US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18?Politics | NoResolved | $35 | 35¢ | 0.0¢ | -$35 |
 Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?Politics | NoResolved | $20 | 14¢ | 0.0¢ | -$20 |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17?Politics | NoResolved | $24 | 43¢ | 0.0¢ | -$24 |
 Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?Politics | YesResolved | $30 | 44¢ | 0.0¢ | -$30 |
 Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by June 30, 2026?Politics | NoResolved | $20 | 24¢ | 0.0¢ | -$20 |
 Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Politics | NoResolved | $11 | 22¢ | 0.0¢ | -$11 |
 Will Trump Insult Xi this week?Politics | YesResolved | $9 | 3.1¢ | 0.0¢ | -$9 |
 Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by September 30, 2026?Politics | NoResolved | $21 | 31¢ | 0.0¢ | -$21 |
 Will Dusan Vlahovic join Besiktas?Soccer (other) | NoResolved | $57 | 38¢ | 0.0¢ | -$57 |
 Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $10 | 13¢ | 0.0¢ | -$10 |
 Will Russia capture Sofiivka by December 31?Politics | NoResolved | $48 | 35¢ | 0.0¢ | -$48 |
 Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?Politics | NoResolved | $20 | 59¢ | 0.0¢ | -$20 |
 Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?Politics | YesResolved | $10 | 6.8¢ | 0.0¢ | -$10 |
 Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by June 30, 2026?Politics | NoResolved | $2 | 21¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
 Will JD Vance attend NATO Summit?Politics | YesResolved | $6 | 12¢ | 0.0¢ | -$6 |
 Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 9?Politics | NoResolved | $9 | 40¢ | 0.0¢ | -$9 |
 Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?World Cup | YesResolved | $10 | 0.3¢ | 0.0¢ | -$10 |
 Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?World Cup | YesResolved | $10 | 1.4¢ | 0.0¢ | -$10 |
| Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $8 | 17¢ | 0.0¢ | -$8 |
 Will Trump speak to Mark Carney in June?Politics | NoResolved | $5 | 10¢ | 0.0¢ | -$5 |
 Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22?Politics | NoResolved | $20 | 26¢ | 0.0¢ | -$20 |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19?Politics | NoResolved | $27 | 30¢ | 0.0¢ | -$27 |
 Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?Politics | NoResolved | $20 | 56¢ | 0.0¢ | -$20 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? Politics | YesResolved | $5 | 2.1¢ | 0.0¢ | -$5 |
 Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30?Politics | NoResolved | $9 | 67¢ | 0.0¢ | -$9 |
 Will Marco Rubio attend NATO Summit?Politics | NoResolved | $7 | 7.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$7 |
| Will OpenAI have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?Tech | YesResolved | $0 | 1.2¢ | 0.0¢ | -$0 |
 Will Russia enter Shevchenko by September 30?Politics | NoResolved | $30 | 6.4¢ | 0.0¢ | -$30 |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?Politics | YesResolved | $10 | 1.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$10 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Politics | NoResolved | $20 | 13¢ | 0.0¢ | -$20 |
| Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?Tech | NoResolved | $262 | 41¢ | 0.0¢ | -$262 |
 Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?Politics | NoResolved | $60 | 30¢ | 0.0¢ | -$60 |
 Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by June 15?Politics | NoResolved | $5 | 18¢ | 0.0¢ | -$5 |
| Will OpenAI have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $7 | 0.5¢ | 0.0¢ | -$7 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Tech | NoResolved | $45 | 15¢ | 0.0¢ | -$45 |
 Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by June 30, 2026?Politics | YesResolved | $5 | 9.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$5 |
| Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19?Tech | NoResolved | $10 | 10¢ | 0.0¢ | -$10 |
 Will Tropical Storm Dolly strengthen to a hurricane?Weather | YesResolved | $10 | 50¢ | 0.0¢ | -$10 |
 Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?World Cup | YesResolved | $10 | 1.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$10 |
 Will Donald Trump attend the G7 Summit?Politics | NoResolved | $10 | 9.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$10 |
 Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Politics | NoResolved | $90 | 21¢ | 0.0¢ | -$90 |
 Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by June 8?Politics | NoResolved | $13 | 13¢ | 0.0¢ | -$13 |
 Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in June?Politics | NoResolved | $5 | 7.8¢ | 0.0¢ | -$5 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?Politics | YesResolved | $50 | 15¢ | 0.0¢ | -$50 |
 Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?Politics | YesResolved | $13 | 18¢ | 0.0¢ | -$13 |
 Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?Tech | NoResolved | $20 | 55¢ | 0.0¢ | -$20 |
 Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June?Politics | NoResolved | $5 | 18¢ | 0.0¢ | -$5 |
 Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31?Politics | NoResolved | $0 | 25¢ | 0.0¢ | -$0 |
| Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Politics | YesResolved | $3 | 0.6¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
 Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?Politics | NoResolved | $30 | 65¢ | 0.0¢ | -$30 |
 Will Kai or Speed die to a piglin?Culture | YesResolved | $62 | 39¢ | 0.0¢ | -$62 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Politics | YesResolved | $6 | 4.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$6 |
| Will Google have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $9 | 0.6¢ | 0.0¢ | -$9 |
 McDonald's CEO out by June 30?Culture | YesResolved | $6 | 4.4¢ | 0.0¢ | -$6 |
 Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?Politics | NoResolved | $10 | 10¢ | 0.0¢ | -$10 |
 Will "Little Brother" be the top US Netflix movie this week?Culture | YesResolved | $20 | 7.5¢ | 0.0¢ | -$20 |
 US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?Politics | YesResolved | $10 | 12¢ | 0.0¢ | -$10 |
| Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of July 2026?Tech | NoResolved | $84 | 11¢ | 0.0¢ | -$84 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?Politics | NoResolved | $20 | 17¢ | 0.0¢ | -$20 |
 Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 16, 2026?Politics | NoResolved | $9 | 18¢ | 0.0¢ | -$9 |
 Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?Politics | YesResolved | $10 | 13¢ | 0.0¢ | -$10 |
 Will Thursday be the most viewed day of Jesse Watters Primetime for the week of August 10 - August 16?Culture | YesResolved | $4 | 9.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$4 |
 Will Cloud9 Win More than 2.5 Matches in VCT 2026 Americas Stage 2eSports | O 2.5Resolved | $6 | 16¢ | 0.0¢ | -$6 |
| Will JD Vance attend the G7 Summit?Politics | YesResolved | $10 | 5.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$10 |
| Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520?Tech | NoResolved | $7 | 10¢ | 0.0¢ | -$7 |