 Will MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1?Culture | Yes | $68 | 65¢ | 89¢ | +$26 |
 Will the Republican Party win the NC-11 House seat?Politics | No | $89 | 62¢ | 57¢ | -$6 |
| Will there be 5 or more ChatGPT outages in July 2026?Tech | Yes | $72 | 85¢ | 62¢ | -$19 |
 Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?Tech | No | $61 | 41¢ | 34¢ | -$10 |
| Will Total Crypto Market Cap hit 2.75T in 2026?Crypto | Yes | $109 | 72¢ | 32¢ | -$61 |
 Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?Tech | No | $45 | 86¢ | 83¢ | -$2 |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Tech | No | $41 | 79¢ | 76¢ | -$2 |
 Will Caterpillar (CAT) beat quarterly earnings?Finance | Yes | $43 | 82¢ | 72¢ | -$6 |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.00 and $3.50 on December 31, 2026?Tech | Yes | $38 | 33¢ | 30¢ | -$3 |
 Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening week in 2026?Culture | No | $35 | 88¢ | 87¢ | -$0 |
 Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?Politics | Yes | $31 | 77¢ | 83¢ | +$2 |
 Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?Politics | No | $29 | 81¢ | 86¢ | +$2 |
| Will the median home value in NYC be between $636,000 and $663,000 on September 30?Economy | No | $34 | 64¢ | 56¢ | -$4 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1?Culture | No | $111 | 42¢ | 11¢ | -$82 |
| Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in July?Economy | No | $28 | 66¢ | 66¢ | -$0 |
 Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $44 | 37¢ | 23¢ | -$16 |
| Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on July 31, 2026?Tech | No | $37 | 89¢ | 65¢ | -$10 |
| Will Raquel Lyra win the Pernambuco Governor election?Politics | No | $40 | 77¢ | 47¢ | -$16 |
| Will PayPal say "Users" during earnings call?Mentions | Yes | $28 | 88¢ | 73¢ | -$5 |
 Will Grab (GRAB) beat quarterly earnings?Finance | No | $26 | 50¢ | 44¢ | -$3 |
| Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $650B by December 31?Finance | Yes | $25 | 42¢ | 38¢ | -$2 |
 Will Mark Sutcliffe win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?Politics | No | $24 | 46¢ | 42¢ | -$2 |
| Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of August 8?Culture | Yes | $17 | 70¢ | 79¢ | +$2 |
| Will the Republican Party win the ME-02 House seat?Politics | No | $20 | 39¢ | 37¢ | -$1 |
| Will Moonshot have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of July 2026?Tech | No | $27 | 27¢ | 20¢ | -$8 |
 Will the People’s Bank of China decrease rates by September 30?Politics | Yes | $22 | 42¢ | 36¢ | -$3 |
| Lam Research (LRCX) Q4 China revenue mix 30%-34%?Finance | Yes | $27 | 51¢ | 35¢ | -$8 |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.30 and $2.60 on July 31, 2026?Tech | Yes | $18 | 66¢ | 65¢ | -$0 |
| Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the top song for 2026?Culture | Yes | $20 | 44¢ | 38¢ | -$3 |
| Will "Day and Night" - Carly Rae Jepsen first week album sales be between 30k and 40k?Culture | No | $19 | 78¢ | 71¢ | -$2 |
 Will Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) beat quarterly earnings?Finance | Yes | $21 | 77¢ | 61¢ | -$5 |
 Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $50B by December 31?Tech | No | $21 | 46¢ | 37¢ | -$4 |
| Will Republicans hold 50–52 Senate seats and 208–222 House seats after the 2026 midterms?Politics | No | $17 | 80¢ | 79¢ | -$0 |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?Politics | No | $20 | 21¢ | 17¢ | -$4 |
| Will “The Traitors” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding reality/competition series?Culture | No | $21 | 40¢ | 30¢ | -$5 |
 Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by September 30?Politics | Yes | $17 | 36¢ | 34¢ | -$1 |
 Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?Tech | No | $15 | 25¢ | 25¢ | -$0 |
 Will Partido Liberal (PL) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?Politics | No | $20 | 38¢ | 29¢ | -$5 |
 Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 10–15%?Politics | No | $17 | 80¢ | 66¢ | -$3 |
| Will Republicans hold 50–52 Senate seats and 208–222 House seats after the 2026 midterms?Politics | Yes | $14 | 22¢ | 21¢ | -$1 |
 Will Marriott (MAR) beat quarterly earnings?Finance | No | $17 | 32¢ | 25¢ | -$4 |
 Will Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) beat quarterly earnings?Finance | Yes | $20 | 39¢ | 24¢ | -$8 |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Tech | Yes | $13 | 24¢ | 23¢ | -$1 |
 Will Ralph Lauren (RL) beat quarterly earnings?Finance | No | $21 | 29¢ | 17¢ | -$9 |
 Will MetLife (MET) beat quarterly earnings?Finance | Yes | $14 | 76¢ | 66¢ | -$2 |
| Will Trump post "Pope" on Truth Social this week?Mentions | Yes | $16 | 30¢ | 23¢ | -$4 |
| Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 10, 2026?Tech | No | $16 | 31¢ | 23¢ | -$4 |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.60 and $2.90 on July 31, 2026?Tech | Yes | $14 | 37¢ | 30¢ | -$3 |
| Will Hyatt Hotels (H) Q2 system-wide hotels RevPAR be above $156?Finance | Yes | $12 | 55¢ | 51¢ | -$1 |
| Will Kaitlin Olson – “Hacks” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actress in a comedy series?Culture | Yes | $11 | 44¢ | 44¢ | -$0 |
 Will the Ornn H100 Index hit $2.00 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?Tech | No | $24 | 75¢ | 32¢ | -$14 |
 Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026?Tech | Yes | $10 | 64¢ | 63¢ | -$0 |
 Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of July 2026?Tech | Yes | $11 | 21¢ | 17¢ | -$2 |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?Tech | Yes | $12 | 22¢ | 17¢ | -$3 |
 Will TKO Group (TKO) beat quarterly earnings?Finance | Yes | $11 | 52¢ | 43¢ | -$2 |
 Will Uber Technologies (UBER) beat quarterly earnings?Finance | No | $16 | 31¢ | 17¢ | -$8 |
 Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the September interest rate announcement?Economy | No | $12 | 19¢ | 13¢ | -$4 |
 Will ZoomInfo Technologies (GTM) beat quarterly earnings?Finance | No | $10 | 21¢ | 18¢ | -$2 |
 Will William Azaroff win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?Politics | Yes | $10 | 35¢ | 29¢ | -$2 |
| Will Trump say "Drill Baby Drill" during Michigan remarks?Mentions | No | $8 | 59¢ | 57¢ | -$0 |
| Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $0.70T on July 31?Economy | Yes | $9 | 40¢ | 33¢ | -$2 |
 Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?Tech | Yes | $15 | 29¢ | 14¢ | -$8 |
 Will Apollo Global Management (APO) beat quarterly earnings?Finance | No | $11 | 33¢ | 23¢ | -$3 |
| Will "Oil" or "Gas" be in the headlines this week?Mentions | No | $14 | 44¢ | 23¢ | -$7 |
| Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 700m and 800m by August 31?Culture | No | $10 | 74¢ | 53¢ | -$3 |
| Will Airbnb (ABNB) Q2 gross booking value be above $26.4B?Finance | No | $8 | 37¢ | 34¢ | -$1 |
| Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026?Politics | Yes | $8 | 36¢ | 32¢ | -$1 |
 Will Allstate (ALL) beat quarterly earnings?Finance | No | $9 | 18¢ | 13¢ | -$3 |
 Will Bola Oyebamiji win the 2026 Osun State gubernatorial elections?Politics | No | $8 | 75¢ | 56¢ | -$2 |
| Will Russia capture Kucheriv Yar by October 31?Politics | Yes | $10 | 49¢ | 28¢ | -$4 |
 Will StoneX Group (SNEX) beat quarterly earnings?Finance | No | $6 | 30¢ | 28¢ | -$0 |
 Will Warsh say "Balance Sheet" during July Press Conference?Mentions | No | $6 | 17¢ | 16¢ | -$1 |
 Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 27?Weather | Yes | $3 | 28¢ | 51¢ | +$2 |
 Will Procter & Gamble (PG) beat quarterly earnings?Finance | No | $7 | 14¢ | 11¢ | -$2 |
| Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?Politics | Yes | $8 | 22¢ | 14¢ | -$3 |
| Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Tech | Yes | $7 | 14¢ | 9.5¢ | -$2 |
 Will Katharina Pötter win the next Osnabrück mayoral election?Politics | No | $8 | 39¢ | 24¢ | -$3 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 35% or higher?Tech | No | $32 | 24¢ | 3.5¢ | -$27 |
 Will Consolidated Edison (ED) beat quarterly earnings?Finance | No | $5 | 33¢ | 30¢ | -$1 |
| Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of August 8?Culture | No | $12 | 56¢ | 22¢ | -$7 |
 Will Booking Holdings (BKNG) beat quarterly earnings?Finance | No | $6 | 24¢ | 19¢ | -$1 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 50 million views on week 1?Culture | Yes | $17 | 32¢ | 8.3¢ | -$12 |
| Will Republicans hold 50–52 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms?Politics | Yes | $5 | 23¢ | 21¢ | -$1 |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Tech | Yes | $9 | 18¢ | 8.0¢ | -$5 |
 Will DuPont de Nemours (DD) beat quarterly earnings?Finance | No | $12 | 23¢ | 8.0¢ | -$8 |
 Will New York Times (NYT) beat quarterly earnings?Finance | No | $8 | 25¢ | 13¢ | -$4 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?Tech | No | $10 | 23¢ | 9.0¢ | -$6 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 27?Weather | Yes | $3 | 20¢ | 25¢ | +$1 |
 Will Expedia Group (EXPE) beat quarterly earnings?Finance | No | $11 | 52¢ | 17¢ | -$7 |
 Will Frontdoor (FTDR) beat quarterly earnings?Finance | No | $9 | 41¢ | 17¢ | -$5 |
 Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 27?Weather | Yes | $3 | 35¢ | 38¢ | +$0 |
 Will Marcye Scott win the 2026 GA-13 special election?Politics | No | $8 | 54¢ | 22¢ | -$5 |
 Will Dropbox (DBX) beat quarterly earnings?Finance | No | $8 | 39¢ | 16¢ | -$5 |
| Will Neuralink's valuation hit (LOW) $37.5B by July 31?Finance | Yes | $14 | 24¢ | 5.3¢ | -$11 |
 Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on July 27?Weather | Yes | $3 | 14¢ | 14¢ | -$0 |
 Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting?Economy | No | $3 | 64¢ | 63¢ | -$0 |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?Tech | Yes | $7 | 13¢ | 5.5¢ | -$4 |
 Will Mitchell Berman be the WI-01 Democratic nominee?Politics | No | $4 | 18¢ | 14¢ | -$1 |
| Will another artist be #1 in global fine art auction turnover for 2026?Culture | No | $3 | 48¢ | 45¢ | -$0 |
 No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting?Economy | Yes | $3 | 89¢ | 85¢ | -$0 |
Sold Yes · Putin meets with Iranian officials by August 31?$039m ago