ToadToad

Predicting since Oct 2024164 markets tradedPolymarket profile ↗

Up $1.7K on Finance markets since Oct 2024.

Right now: $1.6K riding on US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?.

Biggest hit: +$1.4K on Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?.

All-time PnL

+$0

This year

+$0

Last 30 days

+$0

Portfolio value

Deep stats

Bucko Oracle

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Profit over time

What they are betting now

Market	Side	Stake	Entry	Now	PnL
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?Politics	Yes	$2	2.2¢	2.3¢	+$0
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Tech	Yes	$32	13¢	0.5¢	-$31
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?Tech	NoResolved	$4	3.7¢	0.0¢	-$4
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Politics	NoResolved	$1.6K	62¢	0.0¢	-$1.6K
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?World Cup	YesResolved	$50	33¢	0.0¢	-$50
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?Politics	NoResolved	$2	3.0¢	0.0¢	-$2
Will Marcelo attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?Culture	YesResolved	$144	31¢	0.0¢	-$144
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026?Politics	NoResolved	$5	3.5¢	0.0¢	-$5
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by June 5?Politics	NoResolved	$2	1.0¢	0.0¢	-$2
GPT-5.6 released by July 24, 2026?Tech	NoResolved	$0	7.8¢	0.0¢	-$0
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?Politics	YesResolved	$91	15¢	0.0¢	-$91
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Politics	NoResolved	$7	7.0¢	0.0¢	-$7
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Politics	NoResolved	$4	0.7¢	0.0¢	-$4
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5World Cup	OverResolved	$10	51¢	0.0¢	-$10
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?Tech	YesResolved	$4	21¢	0.0¢	-$4
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?Politics	NoResolved	$10	0.5¢	0.0¢	-$10
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?World Cup	YesResolved	$20	63¢	0.0¢	-$20
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by July 15?Politics	NoResolved	$2	3.0¢	0.0¢	-$2
Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2026?Crypto	NoResolved	$2	0.4¢	0.0¢	-$2
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Politics	NoResolved	$20	7.0¢	0.0¢	-$20
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?Tech	NoResolved	$2	12¢	0.0¢	-$2
England vs. Argentina: Team to AdvanceWorld Cup	EnglandResolved	$35	54¢	0.0¢	-$35
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by June 2?Politics	YesResolved	$6	4.1¢	0.0¢	-$6
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?Politics	YesResolved	$0	0.5¢	0.0¢	-$0
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026?Crypto	NoResolved	$1	0.4¢	0.0¢	-$1

Where the money comes from

Realized + open PnL by category

Finance+$1.7K

Tech+$1.4K

Politics-$914

Culture-$144

World Cup-$115

Crypto+$14

Champions League+$2

Premier League+$1

Biggest hit

+$1.4K

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?

Toughest beat

-$1.2K

Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $90+ in March?

Recent moves

Sold No · Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?$276d ago
Sold No · Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?$6386d ago
Sold No · Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?$4709d ago
Cashed out No · Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026?$114d ago
Bought Yes · Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?$2114d ago
Bought Yes · Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?$1314d ago
Bought Yes · Will Marcelo attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?$111mo ago
Bought Yes · Will Marcelo attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?$1381mo ago
Sold No · Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?$2231mo ago
Cashed out No · Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026?$11mo ago
Bought England · England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$152mo ago
Bought England · England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$202mo ago