 Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?Politics | No | $224 | 24¢ | 50¢ | +$241 |
 Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?Tech | No | $393 | 18¢ | 12¢ | -$137 |
 Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?Politics | No | $238 | 34¢ | 11¢ | -$164 |
 Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?Tech | Yes | $104 | 46¢ | 26¢ | -$46 |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?Tech | No | $3 | 54¢ | 75¢ | +$1 |
 Anthropic acquired before 2027?Tech | No | $2 | 60¢ | 97¢ | +$1 |
 Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?Tech | No | $1 | 67¢ | 95¢ | +$0 |
 Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31?Tech | YesResolved | $25 | 2.3¢ | 0.0¢ | -$25 |
 Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 30% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?Tech | NoResolved | $3 | 3.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
 Will Google have the top AI model on September 30?Tech | NoResolved | $222 | 19¢ | 0.0¢ | -$222 |
| Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?Tech | YesResolved | $123 | 34¢ | 0.0¢ | -$123 |
 X Money launch in 2025?Tech | YesResolved | $26 | 23¢ | 0.0¢ | -$26 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $10 | 0.3¢ | 0.0¢ | -$10 |
| Will Google have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?Tech | YesResolved | $155 | 38¢ | 0.0¢ | -$155 |
 Will Yann LeCun leave Meta this year?Tech | NoResolved | $176 | 31¢ | 0.0¢ | -$176 |
 Will Z.ai have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?Tech | YesResolved | $19 | 1.1¢ | 0.0¢ | -$19 |
 Will Grok have a MacOS desktop app live by December 31?Tech | YesResolved | $5 | 13¢ | 0.0¢ | -$5 |
 Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model by June 30?Tech | NoResolved | $256 | 79¢ | 0.0¢ | -$256 |
| Will OpenAI GPT score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Tech | NoResolved | $8 | 57¢ | 0.0¢ | -$8 |
 Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?Tech | NoResolved | $7.6K | 92¢ | 0.0¢ | -$7.6K |
 Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $143 | 13¢ | 0.0¢ | -$143 |
 Will Mistral have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?Tech | YesResolved | $13 | 0.3¢ | 0.0¢ | -$13 |
| GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?Tech | NoResolved | $314 | 10¢ | 0.0¢ | -$314 |
 Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 21?Tech | YesResolved | $40 | 4.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$40 |
 SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?Tech | NoResolved | $64 | 34¢ | 0.0¢ | -$64 |
 Will xAI have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?Tech | YesResolved | $16 | 2.3¢ | 0.0¢ | -$16 |
| Will xAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?Tech | YesResolved | $5 | 0.5¢ | 0.0¢ | -$5 |
| Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $13 | 10.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$13 |
| Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on December 31?Tech | YesResolved | $34 | 0.1¢ | 0.0¢ | -$34 |
| Will xAI have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $45 | 16¢ | 0.0¢ | -$45 |
 Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?Tech | YesResolved | $9 | 0.3¢ | 0.0¢ | -$9 |
 Will Moonshot have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?Tech | YesResolved | $5 | 1.2¢ | 0.0¢ | -$5 |
 Will OpenAI have the second best AI model on September 30?Tech | YesResolved | $18 | 14¢ | 0.0¢ | -$18 |
 Will Claude 5 be released by February 6, 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $268 | 36¢ | 0.0¢ | -$268 |
 OpenAI becomes a for-profit in 2025?Tech | NoResolved | $1.2K | 76¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1.2K |
 Fact Check: Is Tyler Robinson queer?Politics | NoResolved | $154 | 29¢ | 0.0¢ | -$154 |
 Will another person/thing be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?Culture | NoResolved | $19 | 2.2¢ | 0.0¢ | -$19 |
| Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30?Tech | YesResolved | $437 | 13¢ | 0.0¢ | -$437 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $415 | 60¢ | 0.0¢ | -$415 |
| Will Mistral have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $3 | 0.6¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
 Will Grok 4.20 not be released by January 31, 2026?Tech | NoResolved | $481 | 85¢ | 0.0¢ | -$481 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?Tech | YesResolved | $239 | 20¢ | 0.0¢ | -$239 |
| Will Z.ai be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $2 | 0.5¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
| Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $340b and $350b on August 31?Economy | YesResolved | $4 | 7.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$4 |
| Will Alibaba have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?Tech | YesResolved | $20 | 1.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$20 |
| Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $340b and $350b on August 31?Economy | NoResolved | $30 | 71¢ | 0.0¢ | -$30 |
| Will Mistral be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $1 | 0.3¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
| GPT-5.3 released by February 14, 2026?Tech | NoResolved | $4.1K | 44¢ | 0.0¢ | -$4.1K |
 Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 20 2025?Tech | YesResolved | $154 | 3.4¢ | 0.0¢ | -$154 |
| Will Claude 5 be released by February 14, 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $2.1K | 84¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2.1K |
| Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Tech | YesResolved | $312 | 27¢ | 0.0¢ | -$312 |
| Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 16?Tech | YesResolved | $371 | 89¢ | 0.0¢ | -$371 |
 Will the Las Vegas Aces win the 2025 WNBA Championship?Other sports | NoResolved | $7 | 87¢ | 0.0¢ | -$7 |
| Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $419 | 70¢ | 0.0¢ | -$419 |
| Will Alibaba have the second best AI model on September 30?Tech | NoResolved | $125 | 55¢ | 0.0¢ | -$125 |
 Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 13?Tech | NoResolved | $6 | 22¢ | 0.0¢ | -$6 |
 OpenAI browser in 2025?Tech | NoResolved | $19 | 19¢ | 0.0¢ | -$19 |
| Will GPT-5 be released by August 5?Tech | YesResolved | $149 | 8.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$149 |
| Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?Tech | YesResolved | $596 | 50¢ | 0.0¢ | -$596 |
| Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $14 | 8.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$14 |
 Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?Politics | NoResolved | $300 | 30¢ | 0.0¢ | -$300 |
 OpenAI social app in 2025?Tech | NoResolved | $235 | 57¢ | 0.0¢ | -$235 |
| Will xAI have the second best AI model on September 30?Tech | YesResolved | $44 | 17¢ | 0.0¢ | -$44 |
| Will Alibaba be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $0 | 0.4¢ | 0.0¢ | -$0 |
| Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of December 2025?Tech | YesResolved | $142 | 6.2¢ | 0.0¢ | -$142 |
Cashed out Yes · Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?$16K1d ago
Cashed out No · Will xAI release a dLLM by June 30?$52d ago