 Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?Weather | Yes | $358 | 71¢ | 76¢ | +$26 |
 Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics | No | $297 | 93¢ | 94¢ | +$3 |
 Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Politics | No | $201 | 96¢ | 97¢ | +$2 |
 Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics | No | $159 | 81¢ | 85¢ | +$6 |
 No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?Economy | Yes | $133 | 93¢ | 96¢ | +$3 |
 Iran Nuke before 2027?Politics | No | $136 | 95¢ | 95¢ | -$0 |
 Trump out as President before 2027?Politics | No | $122 | 94¢ | 95¢ | +$1 |
 Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Politics | No | $120 | 92¢ | 93¢ | +$1 |
 Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?Politics | No | $97 | 85¢ | 89¢ | +$4 |
 Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Politics | No | $91 | 91¢ | 94¢ | +$3 |
 Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Formula 1 | Yes | $72 | 76¢ | 85¢ | +$9 |
 Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Politics | No | $76 | 88¢ | 87¢ | -$1 |
 Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics | No | $71 | 84¢ | 87¢ | +$2 |
 Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics | Yes | $70 | 87¢ | 87¢ | -$0 |
 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy | Yes | $60 | 86¢ | 93¢ | +$5 |
 Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Politics | Yes | $59 | 71¢ | 76¢ | +$4 |
 Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Politics | No | $54 | 74¢ | 80¢ | +$4 |
 Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Politics | Yes | $54 | 83¢ | 84¢ | +$0 |
 Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics | Yes | $48 | 69¢ | 75¢ | +$4 |
 US recession by end of 2026?Economy | No | $45 | 91¢ | 93¢ | +$1 |
 Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics | Yes | $46 | 95¢ | 95¢ | +$0 |
 Will Russia invade another country in 2026?Politics | No | $42 | 93¢ | 94¢ | +$0 |
| Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026?Politics | No | $42 | 96¢ | 94¢ | -$1 |
 Will annual inflation be 3.4% in August?Economy | Yes | $35 | 45¢ | 48¢ | +$2 |
 Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?Economy | Yes | $74 | 82¢ | 40¢ | -$38 |
 Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?Politics | Yes | $35 | 88¢ | 90¢ | +$1 |
 Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?Politics | No | $34 | 97¢ | 97¢ | +$0 |
 Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto | No | $32 | 90¢ | 96¢ | +$2 |
 Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?Economy | No | $33 | 94¢ | 94¢ | -$0 |
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?Politics | No | $33 | 98¢ | 97¢ | -$0 |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026?Economy | No | $32 | 92¢ | 94¢ | +$0 |
 Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?Politics | Yes | $30 | 94¢ | 93¢ | -$0 |
 Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?Politics | No | $37 | 81¢ | 63¢ | -$8 |
 Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Politics | No | $28 | 94¢ | 94¢ | -$0 |
 Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?Culture | Yes | $28 | 92¢ | 94¢ | +$0 |
| No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?Economy | Yes | $36 | 73¢ | 54¢ | -$9 |
| Bank of England rate hike in 2026?Economy | Yes | $17 | 49¢ | 75¢ | +$9 |
 Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?Economy | Yes | $26 | 87¢ | 86¢ | -$0 |
 Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?Economy | Yes | $23 | 42¢ | 47¢ | +$2 |
 Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics | Yes | $25 | 83¢ | 83¢ | +$0 |
 Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?Politics | No | $23 | 93¢ | 92¢ | -$0 |
 Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?Politics | Yes | $23 | 93¢ | 93¢ | -$0 |
 Cuban regime falls in 2026?Politics | No | $22 | 88¢ | 89¢ | +$0 |
 Will Juraj Droba win the 2026 Bratislava Region gubernatorial election?Politics | Yes | $22 | 89¢ | 83¢ | -$2 |
 Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?Crypto | No | $19 | 93¢ | 97¢ | +$1 |
 Will Katharina Pötter win the next Osnabrück mayoral election?Politics | Yes | $17 | 68¢ | 75¢ | +$2 |
 Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics | Yes | $12 | 36¢ | 54¢ | +$6 |
 Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?Politics | Yes | $18 | 92¢ | 93¢ | +$0 |
| Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?Politics | No | $18 | 91¢ | 92¢ | +$0 |
 Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics | Yes | $15 | 33¢ | 38¢ | +$2 |
 Will Anton Danko win the 2026 Poprad mayoral election?Politics | Yes | $15 | 62¢ | 70¢ | +$2 |
 Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics | Yes | $16 | 82¢ | 83¢ | +$0 |
 Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics | No | $18 | 92¢ | 75¢ | -$3 |
 US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?Politics | No | $14 | 95¢ | 97¢ | +$0 |
 Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?Economy | No | $17 | 70¢ | 57¢ | -$3 |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026?Economy | No | $14 | 94¢ | 95¢ | +$0 |
 US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Politics | No | $14 | 94¢ | 95¢ | +$0 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto | No | $14 | 91¢ | 95¢ | +$1 |
 Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Politics | No | $14 | 94¢ | 95¢ | +$0 |
 Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?Politics | No | $14 | 93¢ | 93¢ | +$0 |
 Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at <$6,000 in December?Finance | No | $14 | 91¢ | 92¢ | +$0 |
 Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% in September?Economy | No | $15 | 97¢ | 92¢ | -$1 |
| Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?Economy | Yes | $14 | 32¢ | 31¢ | -$1 |
 Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 1.1% and 1.5%?Politics | No | $13 | 84¢ | 90¢ | +$1 |
 Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?Politics | Yes | $13 | 87¢ | 87¢ | -$0 |
 Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in August?Economy | Yes | $12 | 49¢ | 50¢ | +$0 |
 Fed rate hike in 2026?Economy | No | $23 | 38¢ | 21¢ | -$10 |
 Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026?Politics | No | $12 | 84¢ | 88¢ | +$0 |
 Will Joint List win 12 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Politics | No | $10 | 96¢ | 98¢ | +$0 |
 Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Pernambuco?Politics | Yes | $10 | 97¢ | 97¢ | -$0 |
 Will AfD win 36 or more seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Politics | No | $9 | 89¢ | 97¢ | +$1 |
 Will the Democratic Party win the LA-02 House seat?Politics | Yes | $9 | 94¢ | 99¢ | +$0 |
 New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms?Politics | No | $10 | 96¢ | 96¢ | -$0 |
| Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.80% before 2027?Economy | No | $10 | 95¢ | 94¢ | -$0 |
 Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?Economy | No | $31 | 80¢ | 24¢ | -$22 |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?Politics | No | $8 | 80¢ | 94¢ | +$1 |
 Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Politics | No | $9 | 93¢ | 94¢ | +$0 |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?Economy | No | $9 | 91¢ | 90¢ | -$0 |
 Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?Politics | No | $9 | 94¢ | 96¢ | +$0 |
 Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?Tech | Yes | $9 | 87¢ | 90¢ | +$0 |
 Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?Politics | No | $7 | 74¢ | 89¢ | +$2 |
 Will Matúš Vallo win the 2026 Bratislava mayoral election?Politics | Yes | $9 | 85¢ | 88¢ | +$0 |
 US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Politics | No | $9 | 85¢ | 87¢ | +$0 |
 No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the October 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $9 | 87¢ | 86¢ | -$0 |
 Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics | Yes | $8 | 79¢ | 85¢ | +$1 |
 Will the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026?Economy | Yes | $11 | 61¢ | 48¢ | -$2 |
 Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?Politics | No | $8 | 83¢ | 85¢ | +$0 |
 Will the Moderate Party (M) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?Politics | No | $8 | 82¢ | 82¢ | +$0 |
 Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?Economy | No | $9 | 93¢ | 77¢ | -$2 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?Politics | No | $7 | 98¢ | 98¢ | +$0 |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in August?Economy | Yes | $7 | 35¢ | 36¢ | +$0 |
 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $7 | 69¢ | 67¢ | -$0 |
 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Politics | Yes | $7 | 67¢ | 67¢ | -$0 |
 Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Politics | Yes | $6 | 60¢ | 66¢ | +$1 |
 Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?Politics | Yes | $6 | 51¢ | 56¢ | +$1 |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in August?Economy | Yes | $6 | 12¢ | 13¢ | +$0 |
| Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Economy | Yes | $5 | 25¢ | 31¢ | +$1 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at >$8,000 in December?Finance | No | $6 | 60¢ | 61¢ | +$0 |
 Will Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win between 30% and 33% of all valid votes?Politics | Yes | $14 | 21¢ | 9.0¢ | -$8 |
| Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Economy | Yes | $13 | 41¢ | 18¢ | -$8 |
Sold Yes · Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?$521m ago