← Whale Watch

Apprehensive-Conformation

Predicting since Nov 202175 markets tradedPolymarket profile ↗
All-time PnL
+$0
This year
+$0
Last 30 days
+$0
Portfolio value
$0

Deep stats

Bucko Oracle
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Profit over time

What they are betting now

MarketSideStakeEntryNowPnL
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?PoliticsYes$8020¢21¢+$2
Costco increases hotdog price before 2027?EconomyNo$5094¢93¢-$1
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?TechYes$5920¢8.0¢-$35
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?TechYes$4013¢2.9¢-$31
Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch?CryptoYes$102.0¢1.7¢-$2
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?TechYes$5021¢1.7¢-$46
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?PoliticsYes$50.6¢0.4¢-$2
Will John Ratcliffe be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?PoliticsYesResolved$50.9¢0.0¢-$5
Will Jimmy Kimmel apologize by Friday?CultureYesResolved$628¢0.0¢-$6
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026?CryptoYesResolved$100.1¢0.0¢-$10
Will the U.S. invade Afghanistan in 2025?PoliticsYesResolved$54.7¢0.0¢-$5
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025?PoliticsYesResolved$100.1¢0.0¢-$10
Will Taylor Swift be the #2 searched person on Google this year?TechYesResolved$50.1¢0.0¢-$5
Israel strikes Iran by October 3?PoliticsYesResolved$10.6¢0.0¢-$1
Will BigFuture School be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 31?TechYesResolved$20.1¢0.0¢-$2
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?PoliticsYesResolved$30.1¢0.0¢-$3
US strikes Afghanistan by October 31?PoliticsYesResolved$551.1¢0.0¢-$55
Israel strikes Iran by October 31?PoliticsYesResolved$202.0¢0.0¢-$20
Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords in 2025?PoliticsYesResolved$44.0¢0.0¢-$4
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30?TechYesResolved$3732¢0.0¢-$37
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 73°F or below on October 6?WeatherYesResolved$00.1¢0.0¢-$0
Iran Nuke in 2025?PoliticsYesResolved$63.2¢0.0¢-$6
Will Mohammed bin Salman wear a suit and tie by Thursday?PoliticsYesResolved$243.9¢0.0¢-$24
Will Israel strike Yemen 5 or more times by October 31?PoliticsYesResolved$12.0¢0.0¢-$1
Trump vetoes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025?PoliticsYesResolved$43.5¢0.0¢-$4
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?PoliticsYesResolved$40.1¢0.0¢-$4
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?PoliticsYesResolved$61.7¢0.0¢-$6
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?PoliticsYesResolved$20.1¢0.0¢-$2
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31?PoliticsYesResolved$4020¢0.0¢-$40
Will SBF appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?CryptoYesResolved$201.0¢0.0¢-$20
Will the Government shutdown end October 1-2?PoliticsYesResolved$50.1¢0.0¢-$5
Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31?CryptoYesResolved$178.0¢0.0¢-$17
Will Donald Trump be the next leader out in 2025?PoliticsYesResolved$212.9¢0.0¢-$21
Will CZ return to Binance by December 31?CryptoYesResolved$3618¢0.0¢-$36
Will Trump’s approval rating be <42.5% on October 3?PoliticsYesResolved$00.7¢0.0¢-$0
Next BLS jobs report by Oct 3, 2025, 8:30 AM ET?PoliticsYesResolved$00.5¢0.0¢-$0
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025?PoliticsYesResolved$200.2¢0.0¢-$20

Where the money comes from

Realized + open PnL by category

Politics-$169
Tech-$157
Crypto-$47
Culture+$13
Economy+$7
Mentions+$5
Other-$2
Weather-$0
Biggest hit
+$98
Trump strikes another drug boat by Oct 15?
Toughest beat
-$93
Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration in 2025?

Recent moves

  • Bought Yes · Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?$8022d ago
  • Cashed out No · Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by June 30?$30424d ago
  • Cashed out No · Will Trump say "Gay" in June?$1025d ago
  • Bought No · Costco increases hotdog price before 2027?$501mo ago
  • Bought No · Will Trump say "Gay" in June?$51mo ago
  • Cashed out Yes · MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?$1671mo ago
  • Cashed out No · Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?$4001mo ago
  • Bought Yes · MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?$1511mo ago
  • Bought Yes · Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by June 30?$151mo ago
  • Bought No · Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by June 30?$3001mo ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30?$381mo ago
  • Sold Yes · Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$12mo ago