 Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics | No | $20 | 58¢ | 57¢ | -$0 |
| Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $0.70T on July 31?Economy | Yes | $1 | 5.0¢ | 36¢ | +$6 |
| Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $9B by July 31?Finance | No | $4 | 65¢ | 98¢ | +$2 |
 Iran leadership change by August 31?Politics | No | $6 | 92¢ | 95¢ | +$0 |
 Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Soccer (other) | No | $5 | 91¢ | 91¢ | -$0 |
| Will Warsh say "Task Force" 20+ times during July Press Conference?Mentions | No | $3 | 55¢ | 77¢ | +$1 |
| Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by July 31?Finance | No | $4 | 90¢ | 99¢ | +$0 |
 Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 27?Weather | Yes | $4 | 27¢ | 28¢ | +$0 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C or below on July 27?Weather | Yes | $3 | 17¢ | 24¢ | +$1 |
| Will Toby Doeden win the South Dakota Governor primary runoff by 5–10%?Politics | No | $3 | 67¢ | 95¢ | +$1 |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Politics | No | $4 | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$0 |
 Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?Politics | No | $4 | 96¢ | 96¢ | +$0 |
 Will Stripe have the third highest private market valuation on July 31?Tech | No | $1 | 16¢ | 54¢ | +$2 |
| Will Larry Rhoden win the South Dakota Governor primary runoff by less than 5%?Politics | No | $2 | 58¢ | 92¢ | +$1 |
 Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026?Finance | No | $3 | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$0 |
 Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Tech | No | $3 | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$0 |
| Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $39B by July 31?Finance | No | $3 | 80¢ | 86¢ | +$0 |
| Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,220,000 and $1,242,000 on September 30?Economy | No | $3 | 90¢ | 89¢ | -$0 |
| Will Madonna's monthly listeners figure hit 60m by August 31?Culture | No | $3 | 94¢ | 95¢ | +$0 |
 Will Stephen Lynch be the Democratic nominee for MA-08?Politics | No | $3 | 49¢ | 48¢ | -$0 |
 Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?Economy | Yes | $3 | 7.1¢ | 7.0¢ | -$0 |
 Will the Bank of Israel cut by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?Economy | No | $2 | 64¢ | 74¢ | +$0 |
 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?Politics | Yes | $2 | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$1 |
 Will Antonio Zanardi Landi be the next High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2026?Politics | No | $2 | 75¢ | 98¢ | +$1 |
 Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 24?Weather | No | $1 | 56¢ | 100¢ | +$1 |
| Mastercard (MA) Q2 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis) 9.5%+?Finance | No | $1 | 55¢ | 96¢ | +$1 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?Politics | Yes | $2 | 62¢ | 75¢ | +$0 |
 Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026?Economy | No | $2 | 87¢ | 88¢ | +$0 |
 Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026?Tech | Yes | $2 | 82¢ | 97¢ | +$0 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 26?Weather | No | $1 | 60¢ | 100¢ | +$1 |
 Will Labour Party win the popular vote in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election by 10-15%?Politics | No | $2 | 77¢ | 91¢ | +$0 |
 Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on July 27?Weather | Yes | $2 | 30¢ | 34¢ | +$0 |
 Will Strava’s market cap be between $7B and $10B at market close on IPO day?Tech | Yes | $1 | 9.8¢ | 22¢ | +$1 |
| Will Trump say "Toyota" during Michigan remarks?Mentions | Yes | $2 | 52¢ | 55¢ | +$0 |
 Will National Party win the popular vote in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election by 0-5%?Politics | No | $2 | 75¢ | 83¢ | +$0 |
 Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Tech | No | $2 | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$0 |
| Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?Tech | No | $2 | 92¢ | 99¢ | +$0 |
 Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?Politics | Yes | $2 | 47¢ | 50¢ | +$0 |
| Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 200m and 220m?Culture | No | $2 | 92¢ | 98¢ | +$0 |
| Will Trump say "Toyota" during Michigan remarks?Mentions | No | $2 | 49¢ | 46¢ | -$0 |
| Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,176,000 on September 30?Economy | No | $3 | 83¢ | 59¢ | -$1 |
| US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?Politics | No | $2 | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$0 |
 Will NYC have between 2 and 3 inches of precipitation in July?Weather | No | $2 | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 |
 Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 34°C on July 27?Weather | Yes | $2 | 6.4¢ | 6.7¢ | +$0 |
| Will National Party win the popular vote in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election by 10% or more?Politics | No | $2 | 89¢ | 92¢ | +$0 |
 Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $48 in July?Finance | No | $2 | 97¢ | 99¢ | +$0 |
 Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?Politics | No | $2 | 94¢ | 95¢ | +$0 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on July 25?Weather | No | $2 | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 |
| Will the median home value in NYC be less than $555,000 on September 30?Economy | No | $2 | 95¢ | 97¢ | +$0 |
 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in July?Finance | No | $2 | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 |
 Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.20 in July?Finance | No | $2 | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 |
 US strike on Cuba by December 31?Politics | No | $2 | 68¢ | 68¢ | -$0 |
| Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?Tech | Yes | $2 | 87¢ | 86¢ | -$0 |
 Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on July 27?Weather | No | $1 | 71¢ | 100¢ | +$1 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on July 27?Weather | No | $1 | 71¢ | 100¢ | +$1 |
| Will Raquel Lyra win the Pernambuco Governor election?Politics | No | $1 | 34¢ | 48¢ | +$1 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on July 27?Weather | No | $1 | 71¢ | 99¢ | +$1 |
 Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on July 27?Weather | No | $1 | 53¢ | 75¢ | +$1 |
 Will SpaceXAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of August 2026?Tech | No | $1 | 70¢ | 97¢ | +$1 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Politics | No | $2 | 87¢ | 84¢ | -$0 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on July 27?Weather | No | $1 | 69¢ | 94¢ | +$1 |
 No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the August 2026 meeting?Politics | No | $0 | 6.0¢ | 32¢ | +$2 |
| Will Brayden Myer be the Wisconsin Secretary of State Republican nominee?Politics | No | $1 | 74¢ | 99¢ | +$0 |
| Mastercard (MA) Q2 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis) 8.5%-9.5%?Finance | No | $1 | 62¢ | 83¢ | +$0 |
| Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $524,000 and $530,000 on September 30?Economy | No | $2 | 90¢ | 86¢ | -$0 |
| Will Core PCE YoY be 3.6% in June?Economy | No | $1 | 52¢ | 99¢ | +$1 |
 Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of July?Tech | No | $1 | 50¢ | 94¢ | +$1 |
| Will Brittany Allen – “The Pitt” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actress in a drama series?Culture | No | $2 | 97¢ | 92¢ | -$0 |
| Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by between 2.5 and 2.9% in 2026?Economy | No | $1 | 69¢ | 92¢ | +$0 |
 Will Moonshot have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of August 2026?Tech | No | $1 | 28¢ | 37¢ | +$0 |
| Will Merritt Wever – “The Gilded Age” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actress in a drama series?Culture | No | $2 | 97¢ | 90¢ | -$0 |
| Will Core PCE YoY be 3.9% or more in June?Economy | No | $1 | 53¢ | 97¢ | +$1 |
| Will Andy Warhol be #1 in global fine art auction turnover for 2026?Culture | No | $1 | 78¢ | 98¢ | +$0 |
| Will Core PCE MoM be 0.0% or less in June?Economy | No | $1 | 54¢ | 97¢ | +$1 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 24?Weather | Yes | $1 | 57¢ | 100¢ | +$1 |
| Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $536,000 and $542,000 on September 30?Economy | No | $2 | 93¢ | 83¢ | -$0 |
| Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 240m and 260m?Culture | No | $1 | 51¢ | 91¢ | +$1 |
 Will NYC Mayor post 60-79 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?Politics | No | $1 | 85¢ | 98¢ | +$0 |
 Will Marie Gluesenkamp Perez earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?Politics | No | $1 | 56¢ | 93¢ | +$1 |
| Will Joseph Chaplik win the AZ-01 Republican primary by more than 10%?Politics | No | $1 | 60¢ | 100¢ | +$1 |
| Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $330,000 and $335,000 on September 30?Economy | No | $2 | 98¢ | 80¢ | -$0 |
| Will Jeff Hiller – “Pluribus” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a drama series?Culture | No | $1 | 57¢ | 93¢ | +$1 |
| Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $3.00 and $4.00 on July 31, 2026?Tech | No | $1 | 56¢ | 91¢ | +$1 |
 Will "The Hawk: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week?Culture | No | $1 | 87¢ | 98¢ | +$0 |
 Will Laura Evans win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?Politics | No | $1 | 62¢ | 100¢ | +$1 |
 Will xAI have the #2 AI model at the end of July 2026?Tech | No | $1 | 63¢ | 100¢ | +$1 |
 Will Carnita Atwater win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Democratic primary election?Politics | No | $1 | 89¢ | 94¢ | +$0 |
 Will Seattle have between 2 and 2.5 inches of precipitation in July?Weather | No | $1 | 87¢ | 96¢ | +$0 |
| Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $40B by July 31?Finance | Yes | $1 | 19¢ | 20¢ | +$0 |
 Will Robert Alferink win the next Osnabrück mayoral election?Politics | No | $1 | 88¢ | 96¢ | +$0 |
 Will Brent Hennrich earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?Politics | No | $1 | 84¢ | 98¢ | +$0 |
| Will Jio Platforms be the largest Indian company?;Economy | No | $1 | 89¢ | 95¢ | +$0 |
 Will Alfred Lemmo be the MI-08 Republican nominee?Politics | No | $1 | 93¢ | 98¢ | +$0 |
| Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?Politics | No | $1 | 40¢ | 43¢ | +$0 |
 Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in July?Finance | Yes | $1 | 5.0¢ | 7.5¢ | +$1 |
| Vertiv (VRT) Q2 adjusted operating margin 24%-26%?Finance | No | $1 | 88¢ | 93¢ | +$0 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 26?Weather | No | $1 | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$0 |
| Will Strava’s market cap be between $3B and $4B at market close on IPO day?Tech | Yes | $1 | 19¢ | 29¢ | +$0 |
| Lam Research (LRCX) Q4 China revenue mix 30%-34%?Finance | No | $1 | 62¢ | 65¢ | +$0 |
 Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027?Politics | No | $1 | 96¢ | 96¢ | -$0 |
Bought No · Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?$11m ago
Bought No · Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?$12m ago
Sold Yes · Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on July 26?$19m ago
Sold No · Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 26?$130m ago