 Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics | No | $389 | 76¢ | 80¢ | +$15 |
 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $407 | 83¢ | 82¢ | -$3 |
 Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics | No | $320 | 90¢ | 92¢ | +$6 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Politics | No | $142 | 99¢ | 99¢ | -$0 |
 Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?Politics | No | $132 | 94¢ | 96¢ | +$3 |
 US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?Politics | No | $120 | 85¢ | 94¢ | +$12 |
 Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics | Yes | $111 | 55¢ | 56¢ | +$4 |
 Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics | Yes | $109 | 83¢ | 87¢ | +$5 |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics | No | $100 | 37¢ | 42¢ | +$13 |
 Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Politics | No | $111 | 95¢ | 96¢ | +$0 |
 Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Politics | No | $108 | 96¢ | 97¢ | +$1 |
 Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics | Yes | $105 | 60¢ | 63¢ | +$4 |
 Trump out as President before 2027?Politics | No | $106 | 93¢ | 94¢ | +$1 |
 Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Politics | No | $114 | 72¢ | 66¢ | -$10 |
| Trump out as President by July 31?Politics | No | $96 | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 |
 Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?Politics | Yes | $94 | 94¢ | 96¢ | +$2 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Politics | No | $94 | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$1 |
 Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?Politics | No | $81 | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$1 |
 Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics | Yes | $70 | 79¢ | 82¢ | +$2 |
 Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics | No | $70 | 81¢ | 80¢ | -$1 |
 Will GameStop acquire eBay?Finance | No | $65 | 87¢ | 88¢ | +$0 |
 Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics | Yes | $65 | 79¢ | 79¢ | +$0 |
 New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? Culture | No | $66 | 95¢ | 95¢ | -$0 |
 Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Politics | No | $59 | 92¢ | 93¢ | +$0 |
 Iran Nuke before 2027?Politics | No | $59 | 95¢ | 95¢ | -$0 |
 Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?Politics | No | $58 | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$0 |
 Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?Politics | No | $53 | 86¢ | 95¢ | +$5 |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by July 31? Culture | No | $55 | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 |
 Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?Politics | No | $54 | 96¢ | 97¢ | +$1 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Politics | No | $53 | 92¢ | 95¢ | +$2 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Politics | No | $56 | 85¢ | 84¢ | -$1 |
 Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?Politics | No | $50 | 94¢ | 95¢ | +$0 |
 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?Politics | Yes | $40 | 74¢ | 89¢ | +$8 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?Politics | No | $44 | 90¢ | 95¢ | +$2 |
 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousePolitics | Yes | $45 | 43¢ | 44¢ | +$0 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?Politics | No | $42 | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 |
 US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Politics | No | $42 | 89¢ | 88¢ | -$1 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Politics | No | $39 | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$0 |
 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy | Yes | $35 | 80¢ | 85¢ | +$2 |
 Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics | No | $36 | 84¢ | 87¢ | +$1 |
 Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Politics | No | $32 | 86¢ | 99¢ | +$5 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Politics | No | $34 | 85¢ | 88¢ | +$1 |
 China x Japan military clash before 2027?Politics | No | $36 | 94¢ | 93¢ | -$1 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?Politics | Yes | $32 | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$3 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Politics | No | $33 | 71¢ | 73¢ | +$1 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Politics | No | $32 | 64¢ | 68¢ | +$2 |
 Fed rate hike in 2026?Economy | Yes | $35 | 67¢ | 64¢ | -$2 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Politics | No | $33 | 75¢ | 73¢ | -$1 |
 Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics | No | $31 | 90¢ | 92¢ | +$0 |
| Iran leadership change by July 31?Politics | No | $30 | 96¢ | 99¢ | +$1 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Politics | No | $29 | 79¢ | 83¢ | +$2 |
 Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?Weather | Yes | $35 | 64¢ | 55¢ | -$5 |
 Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics | No | $28 | 95¢ | 96¢ | +$0 |
 Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics | Yes | $27 | 41¢ | 43¢ | +$2 |
 Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Weather | No | $28 | 97¢ | 97¢ | -$0 |
 Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?Politics | No | $28 | 95¢ | 95¢ | -$0 |
 Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?Politics | Yes | $25 | 89¢ | 96¢ | +$2 |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?Politics | No | $23 | 78¢ | 88¢ | +$3 |
 Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Politics | No | $26 | 90¢ | 92¢ | +$0 |
 US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?Politics | No | $26 | 96¢ | 96¢ | -$0 |
 Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics | Yes | $25 | 23¢ | 24¢ | +$0 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics | Yes | $25 | 20¢ | 20¢ | +$0 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?Politics | Yes | $19 | 57¢ | 76¢ | +$6 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?Politics | Yes | $21 | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$3 |
 Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics | Yes | $20 | 4.3¢ | 4.9¢ | +$3 |
 US strike on Cuba by December 31?Politics | No | $22 | 68¢ | 68¢ | -$0 |
 Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics | Yes | $19 | 26¢ | 27¢ | +$1 |
 Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?Politics | Yes | $20 | 95¢ | 96¢ | +$0 |
 Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics | Yes | $19 | 12¢ | 13¢ | +$1 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Politics | Yes | $20 | 51¢ | 49¢ | -$1 |
| Will Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?Mentions | No | $18 | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$1 |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics | Yes | $17 | 7.4¢ | 8.5¢ | +$2 |
 Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Soccer (other) | No | $18 | 90¢ | 96¢ | +$1 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?Politics | Yes | $14 | 55¢ | 71¢ | +$4 |
 Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Politics | Yes | $22 | 78¢ | 65¢ | -$4 |
 Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Politics | Yes | $19 | 82¢ | 77¢ | -$1 |
 Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Tech | No | $17 | 80¢ | 81¢ | +$0 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $23 | 54¢ | 42¢ | -$5 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?Politics | No | $17 | 82¢ | 84¢ | +$0 |
 Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?Politics | No | $16 | 77¢ | 83¢ | +$1 |
 US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?Politics | No | $17 | 78¢ | 79¢ | +$0 |
 Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Politics | No | $13 | 73¢ | 94¢ | +$4 |
 Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?Politics | No | $16 | 84¢ | 88¢ | +$1 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Politics | Yes | $15 | 50¢ | 56¢ | +$2 |
 Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics | Yes | $16 | 38¢ | 38¢ | -$0 |
 Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics | Yes | $15 | 14¢ | 14¢ | +$1 |
 Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?Politics | No | $16 | 97¢ | 97¢ | +$0 |
 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?Finance | No | $14 | 92¢ | 94¢ | +$0 |
 Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?Politics | No | $14 | 97¢ | 98¢ | +$0 |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?Politics | No | $14 | 97¢ | 97¢ | +$0 |
 NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics | Yes | $11 | 23¢ | 28¢ | +$2 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?Politics | No | $13 | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$0 |
 US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Politics | Yes | $10 | 52¢ | 60¢ | +$2 |
 Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?Politics | No | $12 | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$0 |
 Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?Politics | No | $11 | 83¢ | 87¢ | +$0 |
 Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?Finance | No | $11 | 92¢ | 94¢ | +$0 |
 Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?Economy | No | $12 | 88¢ | 83¢ | -$1 |
 Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Politics | No | $11 | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$0 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics | Yes | $11 | 45¢ | 44¢ | -$0 |
 IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31?Politics | No | $11 | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 |
Sold Yes · Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$033s ago
Bought Yes · Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria by September 30, 2026?$016m ago