 Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics | Yes | $505 | 37¢ | 51¢ | +$193 |
 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $505 | 82¢ | 84¢ | +$12 |
 Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?Economy | Yes | $392 | 85¢ | 98¢ | +$59 |
 Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?Economy | Yes | $285 | 71¢ | 66¢ | -$21 |
 Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the September meeting?Economy | No | $138 | 21¢ | 32¢ | +$72 |
 Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%?Politics | Yes | $168 | 42¢ | 47¢ | +$18 |
 Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?Economy | Yes | $137 | 44¢ | 51¢ | +$20 |
 Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?Politics | Yes | $149 | 39¢ | 41¢ | +$7 |
 Will the South African Reserve Bank make no change to the repo rate after the September meeting?Economy | Yes | $156 | 43¢ | 33¢ | -$40 |
 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $99 | 33¢ | 37¢ | +$11 |
 Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics | Yes | $103 | 56¢ | 54¢ | -$3 |
| Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the November meeting?Economy | No | $77 | 57¢ | 66¢ | +$11 |
| Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.50% and 5.99%?Politics | Yes | $136 | 20¢ | 7.5¢ | -$85 |
 Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.00% in September?Economy | No | $29 | 19¢ | 23¢ | +$6 |
 Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.1% before 2027?Economy | No | $24 | 30¢ | 36¢ | +$4 |
| Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?Economy | No | $27 | 72¢ | 67¢ | -$2 |
 Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.67% in September?Economy | Yes | $27 | 6.3¢ | 4.5¢ | -$8 |
| Will the South African Reserve Bank increase the repo rate after the September meeting?Economy | Yes | $21 | 73¢ | 66¢ | -$2 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% in September?Economy | Yes | $24 | 9.2¢ | 6.0¢ | -$8 |
| Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 6.00% and 6.49%?Politics | Yes | $20 | 3.5¢ | 2.5¢ | -$6 |
| Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the November meeting?Economy | Yes | $15 | 6.2¢ | 5.7¢ | -$1 |
 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in September?Finance | Yes | $14 | 28¢ | 22¢ | -$3 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.64% in September?Economy | Yes | $11 | 7.0¢ | 5.0¢ | -$3 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?Economy | No | $32 | 14¢ | 3.2¢ | -$25 |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Politics | Yes | $66 | 11¢ | 1.1¢ | -$59 |
 Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision?Politics | Yes | $3 | 27¢ | 18¢ | -$1 |
 Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?World Cup | YesResolved | $11 | 57¢ | 0.0¢ | -$11 |
 Will the May 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?Economy | YesResolved | $32 | 32¢ | 0.0¢ | -$32 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Politics | YesResolved | $38 | 18¢ | 0.0¢ | -$38 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Politics | YesResolved | $128 | 25¢ | 0.0¢ | -$128 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Politics | YesResolved | $51 | 51¢ | 0.0¢ | -$51 |
| Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the July meeting?Economy | YesResolved | $322 | 77¢ | 0.0¢ | -$322 |
| Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?World Cup | YesResolved | $5 | 6.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$5 |
 Will Core CPI MoM be 0.4% in August?Economy | YesResolved | $11 | 2.9¢ | 0.0¢ | -$11 |
 Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Politics | YesResolved | $1 | 2.9¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
| Will Core CPI MoM be 0.6% or more in August?Economy | YesResolved | $3 | 0.4¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
 Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-04?Premier League | YesResolved | $64 | 55¢ | 0.0¢ | -$64 |
 Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in April 2026 be between 2.2% and 2.4%?Economy | YesResolved | $25 | 8.3¢ | 0.0¢ | -$25 |
 S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 7?Finance | UpResolved | $11 | 7.2¢ | 0.0¢ | -$11 |
| Will the June 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?Economy | YesResolved | $20 | 51¢ | 0.0¢ | -$20 |
| Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?Politics | YesResolved | $32 | 25¢ | 0.0¢ | -$32 |
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?World Cup | YesResolved | $16 | 16¢ | 0.0¢ | -$16 |
| Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?World Cup | YesResolved | $2 | 2.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
 Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference?Mentions | YesResolved | $2 | 20¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
| Will Warsh say "Job" 15+ times during June Press Conference?Mentions | YesResolved | $5 | 47¢ | 0.0¢ | -$5 |
| Will the South African Reserve Bank make no change to the repo rate after the May meeting?Economy | YesResolved | $116 | 29¢ | 0.0¢ | -$116 |
| Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in April 2026 be between 3.1% and 3.3%?Economy | YesResolved | $12 | 5.3¢ | 0.0¢ | -$12 |
 Will Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.3% and 0.5%?Economy | NoResolved | $10 | 25¢ | 0.0¢ | -$10 |
 Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in April?Economy | YesResolved | $14 | 24¢ | 0.0¢ | -$14 |
| No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?Politics | YesResolved | $25 | 25¢ | 0.0¢ | -$25 |
 Will the US add between 150k and 200k jobs in April?Economy | YesResolved | $7 | 14¢ | 0.0¢ | -$7 |
| Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the August meeting?Economy | YesResolved | $14 | 2.2¢ | 0.0¢ | -$14 |
| Will the August 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?Economy | NoResolved | $7 | 55¢ | 0.0¢ | -$7 |
 Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026?Tech | NoResolved | $68 | 4.8¢ | 0.0¢ | -$68 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?Finance | NoResolved | $20 | 10¢ | 0.0¢ | -$20 |
 US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Politics | YesResolved | $33 | 0.2¢ | 0.0¢ | -$33 |
 Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the May meeting?Economy | YesResolved | $0 | 2.3¢ | 0.0¢ | -$0 |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06?World Cup | YesResolved | $10 | 23¢ | 0.0¢ | -$10 |
 Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?Politics | YesResolved | $9 | 17¢ | 0.0¢ | -$9 |
| Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting?Economy | YesResolved | $10 | 6.8¢ | 0.0¢ | -$10 |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Politics | NoResolved | $13 | 1.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$13 |
 Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?World Cup | YesResolved | $13 | 2.9¢ | 0.0¢ | -$13 |
 Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?Economy | YesResolved | $7 | 7.7¢ | 0.0¢ | -$7 |
| Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting?Economy | YesResolved | $98 | 14¢ | 0.0¢ | -$98 |
| Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after August 2026 meeting?Economy | YesResolved | $21 | 32¢ | 0.0¢ | -$21 |
| Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?Economy | YesResolved | $4 | 19¢ | 0.0¢ | -$4 |
 Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $2 | 0.1¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
| Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?Politics | NoResolved | $12 | 26¢ | 0.0¢ | -$12 |
| Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?Economy | NoResolved | $9 | 19¢ | 0.0¢ | -$9 |
| Will the May 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%?Economy | YesResolved | $25 | 12¢ | 0.0¢ | -$25 |
| Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in April 2026 be between 2.8% and 3.0%?Economy | YesResolved | $23 | 12¢ | 0.0¢ | -$23 |
| Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23?World Cup | YesResolved | $2 | 1.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?Finance | YesResolved | $35 | 35¢ | 0.0¢ | -$35 |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in May?Economy | YesResolved | $14 | 10¢ | 0.0¢ | -$14 |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in May?Economy | YesResolved | $10 | 10¢ | 0.0¢ | -$10 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $55 in July?Finance | YesResolved | $12 | 5.3¢ | 0.0¢ | -$12 |
| Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in August?Economy | YesResolved | $14 | 35¢ | 0.0¢ | -$14 |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in April?Economy | YesResolved | $4 | 17¢ | 0.0¢ | -$4 |
 Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the May Meeting?Politics | YesResolved | $133 | 5.1¢ | 0.0¢ | -$133 |
 Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?World Cup | YesResolved | $2 | 0.4¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
| Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $4 | 0.2¢ | 0.0¢ | -$4 |
 US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?Politics | YesResolved | $41 | 43¢ | 0.0¢ | -$41 |
| Will the August 2026 unemployment rate be 4.0%?Economy | YesResolved | $11 | 15¢ | 0.0¢ | -$11 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July?Finance | YesResolved | $88 | 18¢ | 0.0¢ | -$88 |
| Will Core CPI MoM be 0.5% in August?Economy | YesResolved | $6 | 0.7¢ | 0.0¢ | -$6 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in July?Finance | YesResolved | $3 | 1.5¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
 Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?World Cup | YesResolved | $22 | 3.6¢ | 0.0¢ | -$22 |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?World Cup | YesResolved | $5 | 54¢ | 0.0¢ | -$5 |
| Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in August?Economy | YesResolved | $9 | 21¢ | 0.0¢ | -$9 |
| Will the August 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?Economy | YesResolved | $18 | 31¢ | 0.0¢ | -$18 |