 Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?Economy | Yes | $392 | 53¢ | 80¢ | +$197 |
 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $476 | 79¢ | 83¢ | +$20 |
 Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the July meeting?Economy | Yes | $375 | 64¢ | 79¢ | +$91 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Politics | No | $386 | 82¢ | 83¢ | +$3 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Politics | No | $221 | 63¢ | 47¢ | -$58 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $165 | 66¢ | 56¢ | -$25 |
| Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $100 | 69¢ | 76¢ | +$10 |
 Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the September interest rate announcement?Economy | Yes | $100 | 85¢ | 92¢ | +$8 |
 Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.50% and 4.99%?Politics | Yes | $88 | 23¢ | 26¢ | +$13 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $100 | 61¢ | 41¢ | -$34 |
| Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%?Politics | Yes | $47 | 39¢ | 39¢ | +$0 |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Politics | Yes | $50 | 18¢ | 16¢ | -$7 |
 Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?Economy | Yes | $190 | 59¢ | 13¢ | -$149 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Politics | No | $36 | 71¢ | 71¢ | -$0 |
 Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting?Economy | Yes | $72 | 28¢ | 7.1¢ | -$53 |
| Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the August meeting?Economy | Yes | $14 | 2.2¢ | 2.3¢ | +$0 |
| Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after August 2026 meeting?Economy | Yes | $21 | 32¢ | 9.2¢ | -$15 |
| Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 6.50% and 6.99%?Politics | Yes | $7 | 8.5¢ | 2.5¢ | -$5 |
 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July?Finance | Yes | $88 | 18¢ | 0.3¢ | -$87 |
 Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Tech | Yes | $4 | 0.2¢ | 0.1¢ | -$3 |
 Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?World Cup | YesResolved | $11 | 57¢ | 0.0¢ | -$11 |
 Will the May 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?Economy | YesResolved | $32 | 32¢ | 0.0¢ | -$32 |
| Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?World Cup | YesResolved | $5 | 6.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$5 |
 Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-04?Premier League | YesResolved | $70 | 60¢ | 0.0¢ | -$70 |
 Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in April 2026 be between 2.2% and 2.4%?Economy | YesResolved | $25 | 8.3¢ | 0.0¢ | -$25 |
 S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 7?Finance | UpResolved | $11 | 7.2¢ | 0.0¢ | -$11 |
| Will the June 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?Economy | YesResolved | $20 | 51¢ | 0.0¢ | -$20 |
 Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?Politics | YesResolved | $32 | 25¢ | 0.0¢ | -$32 |
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?World Cup | YesResolved | $16 | 16¢ | 0.0¢ | -$16 |
| Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?World Cup | YesResolved | $2 | 2.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
| Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference?Mentions | YesResolved | $2 | 20¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
| Will Warsh say "Job" 15+ times during June Press Conference?Mentions | YesResolved | $5 | 47¢ | 0.0¢ | -$5 |
 Will the South African Reserve Bank make no change to the repo rate after the May meeting?Economy | YesResolved | $113 | 28¢ | 0.0¢ | -$113 |
| Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in April 2026 be between 3.1% and 3.3%?Economy | YesResolved | $12 | 5.3¢ | 0.0¢ | -$12 |
 Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in April?Economy | YesResolved | $14 | 24¢ | 0.0¢ | -$14 |
 No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?Politics | YesResolved | $25 | 25¢ | 0.0¢ | -$25 |
 Will the US add between 150k and 200k jobs in April?Economy | YesResolved | $7 | 14¢ | 0.0¢ | -$7 |
 US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Politics | YesResolved | $33 | 0.2¢ | 0.0¢ | -$33 |
| Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the May meeting?Economy | YesResolved | $0 | 2.3¢ | 0.0¢ | -$0 |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06?World Cup | YesResolved | $10 | 23¢ | 0.0¢ | -$10 |
 Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?Politics | YesResolved | $9 | 17¢ | 0.0¢ | -$9 |
| Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting?Economy | YesResolved | $10 | 6.8¢ | 0.0¢ | -$10 |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Politics | NoResolved | $13 | 1.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$13 |
 Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?World Cup | YesResolved | $13 | 2.9¢ | 0.0¢ | -$13 |
 Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?Economy | YesResolved | $7 | 7.7¢ | 0.0¢ | -$7 |
| Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting?Economy | YesResolved | $98 | 14¢ | 0.0¢ | -$98 |
| Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?Economy | YesResolved | $4 | 19¢ | 0.0¢ | -$4 |
| Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $2 | 0.1¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
| Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?Politics | NoResolved | $12 | 26¢ | 0.0¢ | -$12 |
| Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?Economy | NoResolved | $9 | 19¢ | 0.0¢ | -$9 |
| Will the May 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%?Economy | YesResolved | $25 | 12¢ | 0.0¢ | -$25 |
| Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in April 2026 be between 2.8% and 3.0%?Economy | YesResolved | $23 | 12¢ | 0.0¢ | -$23 |
| Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23?World Cup | YesResolved | $2 | 1.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in May?Economy | YesResolved | $14 | 10¢ | 0.0¢ | -$14 |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in May?Economy | YesResolved | $10 | 10¢ | 0.0¢ | -$10 |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in April?Economy | YesResolved | $4 | 17¢ | 0.0¢ | -$4 |
 Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the May Meeting?Politics | YesResolved | $132 | 5.1¢ | 0.0¢ | -$132 |
 Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?World Cup | YesResolved | $2 | 0.4¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
 US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?Politics | YesResolved | $41 | 43¢ | 0.0¢ | -$41 |
 Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?World Cup | YesResolved | $22 | 3.6¢ | 0.0¢ | -$22 |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?World Cup | YesResolved | $5 | 54¢ | 0.0¢ | -$5 |