 Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?Economy | Yes | $783 | 76¢ | 79¢ | +$35 |
| Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?Politics | Yes | $55 | 16¢ | 95¢ | +$272 |
 Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?Politics | Yes | $164 | 55¢ | 69¢ | +$44 |
| Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?Economy | Yes | $161 | 16¢ | 17¢ | +$9 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $181 | 66¢ | 60¢ | -$18 |
 No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the August 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $161 | 75¢ | 72¢ | -$7 |
| Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $103 | 59¢ | 81¢ | +$38 |
 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $108 | 42¢ | 52¢ | +$23 |
 No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting?Economy | Yes | $133 | 89¢ | 85¢ | -$5 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $115 | 45¢ | 42¢ | -$9 |
| Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting?Politics | Yes | $94 | 31¢ | 31¢ | +$0 |
 Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the September meeting?Economy | Yes | $75 | 44¢ | 49¢ | +$7 |
| Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?Economy | Yes | $77 | 45¢ | 48¢ | +$5 |
| Will Republicans win 2 Senate and Governor elections in states won by Kamala?Politics | Yes | $48 | 24¢ | 41¢ | +$31 |
| Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?Economy | Yes | $77 | 81¢ | 80¢ | -$2 |
| Will Claude go down 9-11 times in July?Tech | Yes | $17 | 20¢ | 84¢ | +$54 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $51 | 18¢ | 25¢ | +$17 |
| Will Republicans win 3 Senate and Governor elections in states won by Kamala?Politics | Yes | $45 | 23¢ | 27¢ | +$7 |
 Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 0% and 1%?Economy | Yes | $26 | 28¢ | 55¢ | +$25 |
 Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Politics | Yes | $51 | 28¢ | 26¢ | -$3 |
 No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?Economy | Yes | $57 | 76¢ | 64¢ | -$9 |
| Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $36 | 18¢ | 23¢ | +$11 |
 Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 0.6% and 1.0%?Politics | Yes | $37 | 35¢ | 43¢ | +$8 |
 Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the September decision?Politics | Yes | $38 | 76¢ | 89¢ | +$6 |
 No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $43 | 97¢ | 98¢ | +$1 |
| Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 1.1% and 1.5%?Politics | Yes | $22 | 21¢ | 42¢ | +$22 |
| Will Republicans win 1 Senate and Governor election in states won by Kamala?Politics | Yes | $52 | 27¢ | 22¢ | -$9 |
| Will United Russia win between 310 and 324 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Politics | Yes | $31 | 17¢ | 23¢ | +$12 |
 Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates by September 30?Politics | Yes | $58 | 83¢ | 61¢ | -$15 |
| Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Politics | Yes | $49 | 27¢ | 23¢ | -$7 |
| Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 1% and 2%?Economy | Yes | $40 | 42¢ | 44¢ | +$1 |
| Will there be 5 or more ChatGPT outages in July 2026?Tech | Yes | $15 | 25¢ | 61¢ | +$22 |
| Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $57 | 34¢ | 20¢ | -$24 |
 Will the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be between 36 and 39 inclusive?Politics | Yes | $33 | 61¢ | 60¢ | -$0 |
 Will Trump deport 400-500k people?Politics | Yes | $26 | 44¢ | 50¢ | +$4 |
 Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 4.50%?Economy | Yes | $43 | 51¢ | 35¢ | -$13 |
| Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Politics | Yes | $31 | 17¢ | 16¢ | -$3 |
| Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?Economy | Yes | $39 | 3.8¢ | 2.8¢ | -$11 |
 Will two people dissent the July Fed decision?Economy | Yes | $12 | 15¢ | 33¢ | +$16 |
| Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 7?Politics | Yes | $24 | 39¢ | 47¢ | +$5 |
 Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?Economy | Yes | $15 | 21¢ | 40¢ | +$13 |
| Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting?Economy | Yes | $16 | 21¢ | 37¢ | +$12 |
 Will voter turnout be between 76% and 78% in the 2026 New Zealand general election?Politics | Yes | $28 | 33¢ | 32¢ | -$1 |
 Will Waymo operate in 16-19 cities on December 31 2026?Tech | Yes | $30 | 33¢ | 28¢ | -$4 |
| Will the People’s Bank of China decrease rates by September 30?Politics | Yes | $10 | 14¢ | 36¢ | +$15 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $23 | 8.4¢ | 8.5¢ | +$0 |
| Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 3.00% and 3.74%?Economy | Yes | $16 | 19¢ | 27¢ | +$7 |
| Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?Economy | Yes | $21 | 30¢ | 33¢ | +$2 |
| Will there be exactly 4 ChatGPT outages in July 2026?Tech | Yes | $12 | 19¢ | 38¢ | +$11 |
| Will no one dissent the July Fed decision?Economy | Yes | $39 | 46¢ | 27¢ | -$17 |
| Will one person dissent the July Fed decision?Economy | Yes | $19 | 23¢ | 26¢ | +$3 |
 Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?Politics | Yes | $22 | 45¢ | 44¢ | -$0 |
| Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Economy | Yes | $22 | 37¢ | 33¢ | -$2 |
 Will South Korea’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.7% and 2.9%?Economy | Yes | $10 | 20¢ | 38¢ | +$9 |
| Will voter turnout be between 78% and 80% in the 2026 New Zealand general election?Politics | Yes | $21 | 25¢ | 22¢ | -$3 |
| Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Economy | Yes | $9 | 16¢ | 31¢ | +$9 |
| Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 3.75% and 4.49%?Economy | Yes | $14 | 18¢ | 22¢ | +$4 |
| Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m?Culture | Yes | $1 | 4.7¢ | 67¢ | +$16 |
 Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026?Tech | Yes | $15 | 52¢ | 56¢ | +$1 |
 Will the Reserve Bank of India make no change to the policy repo rate after the August Meeting?Economy | Yes | $15 | 60¢ | 67¢ | +$2 |
| Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $0.70T and $0.80T on July 31?Economy | Yes | $16 | 46¢ | 47¢ | +$0 |
 Will the National Party win 35-39 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?Politics | Yes | $13 | 28¢ | 36¢ | +$3 |
| Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 11?Politics | Yes | $14 | 23¢ | 27¢ | +$2 |
| Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?Economy | Yes | $19 | 32¢ | 27¢ | -$4 |
| Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting?Economy | Yes | $13 | 14¢ | 16¢ | +$2 |
| Will the National Party win 40-44 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?Politics | Yes | $14 | 31¢ | 33¢ | +$1 |
 Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?Weather | Yes | $17 | 24¢ | 21¢ | -$2 |
 Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 60% or more?Politics | Yes | $10 | 26¢ | 36¢ | +$4 |
| Will South Korea’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.4% and 2.6%?Economy | Yes | $13 | 26¢ | 28¢ | +$1 |
| Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 40% and 60%?Politics | Yes | $14 | 36¢ | 35¢ | -$0 |
| Will United Russia win between 295 and 309 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Politics | Yes | $10 | 5.5¢ | 7.5¢ | +$4 |
 Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%?Politics | Yes | $12 | 34¢ | 39¢ | +$2 |
| Will Waymo operate in fewer than 12 cities on December 31 2026?Tech | Yes | $8 | 9.2¢ | 16¢ | +$6 |
| Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?Politics | Yes | $201 | 58¢ | 3.9¢ | -$188 |
| Will Claude go down 12+ times in July?Tech | Yes | $4 | 4.8¢ | 16¢ | +$9 |
| Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after August 2026 meeting?Economy | Yes | $14 | 9.0¢ | 8.9¢ | -$0 |
| Will Waymo operate in 20-23 cities on December 31 2026?Tech | Yes | $14 | 16¢ | 14¢ | -$1 |
 Will the Labour Party win 35-39 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?Politics | Yes | $11 | 24¢ | 29¢ | +$2 |
| Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $0.70T on July 31?Economy | Yes | $12 | 34¢ | 36¢ | +$1 |
| Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.4m & 4.6m square kilometers?Weather | Yes | $7 | 10¢ | 18¢ | +$5 |
| Will the Labour Party win 40-44 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?Politics | Yes | $10 | 26¢ | 31¢ | +$2 |
 Will voter turnout be between 53% and 56% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?Politics | Yes | $12 | 30¢ | 29¢ | -$0 |
| Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.2m & 4.4m square kilometers?Weather | Yes | $15 | 21¢ | 16¢ | -$3 |
| Will Republicans win 0 Senate and Governor elections in states won by Kamala?Politics | Yes | $28 | 15¢ | 5.8¢ | -$17 |
| Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 1.50% and 2.24%?Economy | Yes | $2 | 2.4¢ | 13¢ | +$9 |
| Will voter turnout be less than 76% in the 2026 New Zealand general election?Politics | Yes | $10 | 12¢ | 13¢ | +$1 |
| Will the National Party win 30-34 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?Politics | Yes | $7 | 16¢ | 25¢ | +$4 |
| Will US GDP growth in 2026 be greater than 2.5%?Economy | Yes | $17 | 24¢ | 16¢ | -$6 |
| Will Trump deport 300-400k people?Politics | Yes | $10 | 17¢ | 18¢ | +$0 |
 Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 4.00% and 4.49%?Economy | Yes | $6 | 25¢ | 42¢ | +$4 |
| Will voter turnout be between 80% and 82% in the 2026 New Zealand general election?Politics | Yes | $11 | 12¢ | 12¢ | -$0 |
| Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?Tech | Yes | $9 | 30¢ | 34¢ | +$1 |
| Will three people dissent the July Fed decision?Economy | Yes | $10 | 12¢ | 12¢ | -$0 |
| Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.0m & 4.2m square kilometers?Weather | Yes | $13 | 20¢ | 15¢ | -$3 |
| Will Waymo operate in 24-27 cities on December 31 2026?Tech | Yes | $10 | 12¢ | 12¢ | -$1 |
| Will South Korea’s 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 3.0%?Economy | Yes | $9 | 18¢ | 20¢ | +$1 |
| Will the Labour Party win 45-49 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?Politics | Yes | $9 | 21¢ | 21¢ | +$0 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $10 | 4.0¢ | 3.7¢ | -$1 |
| Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meeting?Politics | Yes | $36 | 12¢ | 3.0¢ | -$27 |
 Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be 1600.00 or higher at the end of December 2026?Politics | Yes | $10 | 67¢ | 62¢ | -$1 |