← Whale Watch

lava-lava

Predicting since Nov 2022975 markets tradedPolymarket profile ↗

Up $937K on Politics markets since Nov 2022.

Right now: $13K riding on Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?.

Biggest hit: +$119K on Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?.

All-time PnL
+$0
This year
+$0
Last 30 days
+$0
Portfolio value
$0

Deep stats

Bucko Oracle
Loading…

Profit over time

What they are betting now

MarketSideStakeEntryNowPnL
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?PoliticsNo$13K80¢89¢+$1.4K
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?WeatherNo$7.2K90¢97¢+$509
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?PoliticsYes$6.2K57¢56¢-$26
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?PoliticsNo$5.4K77¢87¢+$715
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?PoliticsNo$5.3K87¢96¢+$490
US strike on Cuba by December 31?PoliticsNo$4.3K61¢68¢+$485
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$4.3K84¢92¢+$383
Iran nuclear test before 2027?PoliticsNo$3.9K89¢93¢+$178
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?PoliticsNo$3.4K90¢97¢+$250
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?PoliticsNo$2.4K71¢97¢+$860
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?PoliticsNo$2.1K64¢92¢+$919
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$1.8K78¢70¢-$189
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?PoliticsNo$1.4K42¢44¢+$42
NATO article 5 before 2027?PoliticsNo$1.2K78¢92¢+$219
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?PoliticsYes$40012¢38¢+$860
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?PoliticsYes$97844¢44¢-$11
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?PoliticsNo$78983¢79¢-$43
Blue wave in 2026?PoliticsYes$53958¢75¢+$159
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousePoliticsYes$42133¢44¢+$134
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?PoliticsNo$38465¢93¢+$159
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?PoliticsYes$38888¢98¢+$46
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?OtherNo$35574¢87¢+$63
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?PoliticsNo$33458¢61¢+$14
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?PoliticsYes$2.0K24¢3.2¢-$1.7K
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?PoliticsYes$11942¢63¢+$57
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?PoliticsYes$12724¢31¢+$41
Blue tsunami in 2026?PoliticsYes$4629¢45¢+$24
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?PoliticsYes$3636¢33¢-$4
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?PoliticsYes$2952¢51¢-$1
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 12% and 14%?PoliticsYes$173.9¢5.9¢+$8
Will Jeannette Jara win at least 32% of votes in the first round?PoliticsYesResolved$1.3K24¢0.0¢-$1.3K
Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by 15% or more?PoliticsYesResolved$64312¢0.0¢-$643
Will turnout be more than 69% in the Czech election?PoliticsYesResolved$2074.9¢0.0¢-$207
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5World CupUnderResolved$30030¢0.0¢-$300
Will André Ventura win between 24% and 26% of votes in the first round?PoliticsYesResolved$602.0¢0.0¢-$60
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?PoliticsNoResolved$33330¢0.0¢-$333
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?World CupNoResolved$44044¢0.0¢-$440
Will Arco win Best Animated Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?CultureYesResolved$331.0¢0.0¢-$33
Will António José Seguro win between 20% and 22% of votes in the first round?PoliticsYesResolved$26.0¢0.0¢-$2
Will Party for Freedom win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?PoliticsYesResolved$80316¢0.0¢-$803
Will an election be called instead of appointing a Prime Minister?PoliticsYesResolved$68164¢0.0¢-$681
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?PoliticsNoResolved$4448.0¢0.0¢-$444
Spread: Norway (-1.5)World CupNorwayResolved$14014¢0.0¢-$140
Will ANO get between 33% and 36% of the vote in the Czech election?PoliticsNoResolved$872¢0.0¢-$8
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 30–40%?PoliticsNoResolved$2.2K41¢0.0¢-$2.2K
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?CultureYesResolved$601.8¢0.0¢-$60
Will JA21 win 13 or more seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?PoliticsYesResolved$28.0¢0.0¢-$2
Will MDG win the fourth most seats in the Norway election?PoliticsYesResolved$95525¢0.0¢-$955
Will SPD get between 7% and 10% of the vote in the Czech election?PoliticsNoResolved$31582¢0.0¢-$315
Will Partido Popular (PP) win the 2026 Castilla y León Regional Election?PoliticsNoResolved$1083.2¢0.0¢-$108
Will SPD get less than 7% of the vote in the Czech election?PoliticsYesResolved$451.5¢0.0¢-$45
Will Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?CultureNoResolved$1.1K31¢0.0¢-$1.1K
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?World CupNoResolved$16016¢0.0¢-$160
Will the Red Bloc win by 12–15 seats?PoliticsYesResolved$8019¢0.0¢-$80
Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be less than 5%?PoliticsNoResolved$2.3K35¢0.0¢-$2.3K
Christian Democratic Party (KrF) wins 4% or more of vote in Norwegian election?PoliticsNoResolved$10729¢0.0¢-$107
Will Johannes Kaiser win at least 19% of votes in the first round?PoliticsYesResolved$1.1K28¢0.0¢-$1.1K
Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win more than 20% of votes in the first round?PoliticsYesResolved$461.6¢0.0¢-$46
Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 0–5%?PoliticsYesResolved$11011¢0.0¢-$110
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 46% and 48%?PoliticsYesResolved$47913¢0.0¢-$479
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?PoliticsNoResolved$113¢0.0¢-$1
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 15%+?PoliticsYesResolved$2593.4¢0.0¢-$259
Will Kast win by 10% to 15%?PoliticsYesResolved$1522.3¢0.0¢-$152
Will Jara win by 3-6%?PoliticsYesResolved$1.4K49¢0.0¢-$1.4K
Will Greece be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?CultureYesResolved$61155¢0.0¢-$611
Will SPOLU get between 20% and 23% of the vote in the Czech election?PoliticsYesResolved$1.6K36¢0.0¢-$1.6K
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5)World CupKorea RepublicResolved$33033¢0.0¢-$330
Will Ciucu win by 6-9%?PoliticsYesResolved$37.0¢0.0¢-$3
Will Quiroga win by 7-12%?PoliticsYesResolved$439.2¢0.0¢-$43
Will José Antonio Kast win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?PoliticsYesResolved$2.6K48¢0.0¢-$2.6K
France vs. Spain: O/U 1.5World CupUnderResolved$3979.9¢0.0¢-$397
Will José Antonio Kast come in third in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?PoliticsYesResolved$32913¢0.0¢-$329
Will SPOLU get between 17% and 20% of the vote in the Czech election?PoliticsYesResolved$1.6K34¢0.0¢-$1.6K
Will Paloma Valencia & Iván Cepeda Castro advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?PoliticsYesResolved$7217¢0.0¢-$72
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?PoliticsYesResolved$1.0K4.4¢0.0¢-$1.0K
Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?PoliticsYesResolved$12829¢0.0¢-$128
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5World CupUnderResolved$56056¢0.0¢-$560
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?World CupNoResolved$18018¢0.0¢-$180
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by at least 5%?PoliticsNoResolved$83020¢0.0¢-$830
Will gas hit (High) $4.50 by March 31?PoliticsYesResolved$1328¢0.0¢-$13
Will Daniel Baluta finish second in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?PoliticsYesResolved$75527¢0.0¢-$755
Will Australia win on 2026-07-03?World CupYesResolved$29029¢0.0¢-$290
Will Evelyn Matthei come in second in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?PoliticsYesResolved$110.3¢0.0¢-$11
Will Ciucu win by at least 12%?PoliticsNoResolved$33991¢0.0¢-$339
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?CultureNoResolved$1.5K23¢0.0¢-$1.5K
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?CultureYesResolved$3344.6¢0.0¢-$334
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win <25 seats in the Slovenian National Assembly in this election?PoliticsYesResolved$631¢0.0¢-$6
Will Jacob Elordi win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?CultureYesResolved$470.7¢0.0¢-$47
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?World CupYesResolved$7003.5¢0.0¢-$700
Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?PoliticsYesResolved$84527¢0.0¢-$845
Zohran Mamdani gets the most first-choice votes in the 2025 New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?PoliticsNoResolved$2.6K67¢0.0¢-$2.6K
Will turnout in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election be at least 46%?PoliticsYesResolved$714¢0.0¢-$7
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?World CupNoResolved$45045¢0.0¢-$450
Will Daniel Băluță get between 15% and 20% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?PoliticsYesResolved$6199.3¢0.0¢-$619
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?PoliticsYesResolved$800.8¢0.0¢-$80
World Championships: Finland vs. CzechiaHockey (other)CzechiaResolved$27825¢0.0¢-$278
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06?Champions LeagueYesResolved$32229¢0.0¢-$322
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?PoliticsYesResolved$344¢0.0¢-$3
Will André Ventura win more than 26% of votes in the first round?PoliticsYesResolved$512¢0.0¢-$5
Will the red bloc win more than 92 seats in the Norwegian election?PoliticsYesResolved$65718¢0.0¢-$657

Where the money comes from

Realized + open PnL by category

Politics+$937K
Other+$12K
Economy-$4.4K
Culture+$3.0K
Crypto+$1.5K
Finance-$1.3K
Hockey (other)-$911
Weather+$509
World Cup+$401
Champions League-$322
Premier League-$131
Tech+$49
Biggest hit
+$119K
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?
Toughest beat
-$110K
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?

Recent moves

  • Bought No · Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?$55d ago
  • Bought No · Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?$1005d ago
  • Bought No · Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?$9338d ago
  • Bought England · England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$27510d ago
  • Cashed out No · Will Slovakia pass the 2026 referendum question cancelling the lifetime annuity for politicians?$8310d ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?$3710d ago