← Whale Watch

1walrus

Predicting since Dec 20251,160 markets tradedPolymarket profile ↗

Up $7.9K on Politics markets since Dec 2025.

Right now: $50K across 2 Politics markets.

Biggest hit: +$4.2K on Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on March 31?.

All-time PnL
+$0
This year
+$0
Last 30 days
+$0
Portfolio value
$0

Deep stats

Bucko Oracle
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Profit over time

What they are betting now

MarketSideStakeEntryNowPnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?PoliticsNo$25K50¢80¢+$15K
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?PoliticsYes$25K50¢20¢-$15K
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?TechNo$16950¢82¢+$108
Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?TechYes$13038¢67¢+$98
Will the SpaceX Starship launch from Florida by December 31, 2026?TechYes$22460¢52¢-$31
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?TechYes$9431¢62¢+$92
Will there be at least 5000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?WeatherYes$5640¢90¢+$69
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $0.80T and $0.90T on July 31?EconomyYes$14714¢11¢-$32
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?PoliticsYes$2228¢83¢+$44
Christopher Luxon out by September 30?PoliticsYes$7128¢27¢-$5
Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?TechYes$5611¢11¢+$1
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $0.90T and $1.00T on July 31?EconomyYes$16111¢3.4¢-$114
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?EconomyNo$3486¢91¢+$2
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.00T and $1.10T on July 31?EconomyYes$1218.8¢2.4¢-$89
Will an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31?CultureNo$2248¢57¢+$4
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $0.70T on July 31?EconomyNo$2663¢63¢+$0
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $0.70T and $0.80T on July 31?EconomyYes$1940¢45¢+$2
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?PoliticsNo$1576¢93¢+$3
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$4812¢4.3¢-$31
Will there be at least 10000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?WeatherYes$118.4¢8.3¢-$0
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.10T and $1.20T on July 31?EconomyYes$1239.0¢0.7¢-$114
Another Blue Origin rocket explodes by Oct 31?TechYes$58.0¢10¢+$1
Will any FaZe member come out as a furry by July 31?eSportsYes$156.0¢2.3¢-$9
Will Tom Tiffany win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Republican primary election?PoliticsYes$369¢99¢+$1
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Soccer (other)No$783¢56¢-$2
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $1.20T on July 31?EconomyYes$488.7¢0.7¢-$44
Will there be exactly 2 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?WeatherYes$910¢4.2¢-$6
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?PoliticsYes$524¢14¢-$2
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?EconomyYes$414¢9.0¢-$1
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Soccer (other)No$159¢96¢+$1
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?TechNoResolved$681.5¢0.0¢-$68
Will OpenAI have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?TechYesResolved$101.9¢0.0¢-$10
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$3021¢0.0¢-$30
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$20.3¢0.0¢-$2
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?PoliticsNoResolved$67.9¢0.0¢-$6
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $660b and $670b on May 31?EconomyYesResolved$8910¢0.0¢-$89
Will Figure's F.03 robots run between 50 and 100 hours without failure?TechYesResolved$154.3¢0.0¢-$15
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $650b and $660b on May 31?EconomyYesResolved$8011¢0.0¢-$80
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?PoliticsNoResolved$71.2¢0.0¢-$7
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$1022¢0.0¢-$10
Epstein suicide note released by May 31?PoliticsYesResolved$1516¢0.0¢-$15
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 17?WeatherYesResolved$09.1¢0.0¢-$0
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on May 17?WeatherYesResolved$09.1¢0.0¢-$0
Will "Ghost" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?MentionsYesResolved$110.7¢0.0¢-$11
World Cup: Largest Margin of Victory Record Broken?World CupYesResolved$105.0¢0.0¢-$10
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 15?TechYesResolved$57.4¢0.0¢-$5
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $1.00T on June 30?EconomyYesResolved$145.0¢0.0¢-$14
Will Z.ai have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?TechYesResolved$61.4¢0.0¢-$6
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $630b and $640b on May 31?EconomyYesResolved$217.0¢0.0¢-$21
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SX?TechYesResolved$04.0¢0.0¢-$0
Will Ant Middleton summit Everest in between 5 and 6 days?CultureYesResolved$2114¢0.0¢-$21
Will Kyle Schwarber win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?MLBYesResolved$4483¢0.0¢-$44
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 17?WeatherYesResolved$09.1¢0.0¢-$0
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?TechYesResolved$24546¢0.0¢-$245
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 17?WeatherYesResolved$09.1¢0.0¢-$0
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $620b and $630b on May 31?EconomyYesResolved$247.0¢0.0¢-$24
Will OpenAI have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?TechYesResolved$11.8¢0.0¢-$1
Another RFK Jr animal rescue by June 30?CultureYesResolved$2029¢0.0¢-$20
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on May 31?EconomyYesResolved$7111¢0.0¢-$71
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?TechNoResolved$260.5¢0.0¢-$26
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on May 17?WeatherYesResolved$50.1¢0.0¢-$5
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530?TechNoResolved$99.0¢0.0¢-$9
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?World CupNoResolved$533¢0.0¢-$5
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?PoliticsNoResolved$00.1¢0.0¢-$0
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?TechYesResolved$04.0¢0.0¢-$0
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPACE?TechYesResolved$04.0¢0.0¢-$0
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?TechYesResolved$6212¢0.0¢-$62
Will the US strike 7 countries in 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$52.7¢0.0¢-$5
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$417¢0.0¢-$4
Will Rodri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?World CupNoResolved$193¢0.0¢-$1
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 12, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$81.4¢0.0¢-$8
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $670b and $680b on May 31?EconomyYesResolved$6712¢0.0¢-$67
Will Ant Middleton summit Everest in between 4 and 5 days?CultureYesResolved$120¢0.0¢-$1
US x China tariff agreement by May 31?PoliticsYesResolved$2164¢0.0¢-$21
Will SpaceX have exactly 11 launches in May?TechYesResolved$230¢0.0¢-$2
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 17?WeatherNoResolved$10.3¢0.0¢-$1
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?PoliticsYesResolved$20.8¢0.0¢-$2
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $MARS?TechYesResolved$04.0¢0.0¢-$0
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 6, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$43.5¢0.0¢-$4
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 17?WeatherYesResolved$09.1¢0.0¢-$0
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 17?WeatherYesResolved$09.1¢0.0¢-$0
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?PoliticsYesResolved$183.5¢0.0¢-$18
World Cup: Highest Scoring Match Record Broken?World CupYesResolved$30.6¢0.0¢-$3
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $610b and $620b on May 31?EconomyYesResolved$84.0¢0.0¢-$8
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 14?PoliticsNoResolved$71.3¢0.0¢-$7
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $680b and $690b on May 31?EconomyYesResolved$13112¢0.0¢-$131
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?PoliticsYesResolved$1212¢0.0¢-$12
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31?TechNoResolved$815¢0.0¢-$8
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?FinanceNoResolved$204.0¢0.0¢-$20
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 17?WeatherYesResolved$09.1¢0.0¢-$0
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?TechYesResolved$04.0¢0.0¢-$0
Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County?MentionsYesResolved$4729¢0.0¢-$47
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?TechYesResolved$718.0¢0.0¢-$71
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 17?WeatherYesResolved$09.1¢0.0¢-$0
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by June 30?TechNoResolved$98.4¢0.0¢-$9
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPC?TechYesResolved$04.0¢0.0¢-$0
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$234.5¢0.0¢-$23
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on May 17?WeatherYesResolved$150¢0.0¢-$1
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?TechYesResolved$3015¢0.0¢-$30
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX?TechYesResolved$04.0¢0.0¢-$0

Where the money comes from

Realized + open PnL by category · still crunching older history, totals will deepen

Politics+$7.9K
Economy+$3.8K
Culture+$1.8K
Mentions+$1.5K
Tech+$718
Other+$399
Other sports+$352
eSports+$301
Crypto+$294
Boxing+$280
Finance+$224
NBA-$221
Biggest hit
+$4.2K
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on March 31?
Toughest beat
-$1.4K
US forces enter Iran by April 30?

Recent moves

  • Bought Yes · Will the SpaceX Starship launch from Florida by December 31, 2026?$110h ago
  • Cashed out Yes · Chicago Air Quality Index below 100 by July 21, 2026?$261d ago
  • SPLIT Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$50K1d ago
  • Cashed out Yes · Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode?$20K1d ago
  • Cashed out No · Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy booster?$2.2K1d ago
  • Bought Yes · Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode?$1941d ago
  • Bought Yes · Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode?$971d ago
  • Bought Yes · Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode?$491d ago
  • Bought Yes · Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode?$981d ago
  • Bought Yes · Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode?$1961d ago
  • Bought Yes · Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode?$981d ago
  • Bought Yes · Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode?$831d ago