← Whale Watch

groth

Predicting since Apr 2025399 markets tradedPolymarket profile ↗

Up $100K on Politics markets since Apr 2025.

Right now: $22K across 3 Politics markets.

Biggest hit: +$14K on Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?.

All-time PnL
+$0
This year
+$0
Last 30 days
+$0
Portfolio value
$0

Deep stats

Bucko Oracle
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Profit over time

What they are betting now

MarketSideStakeEntryNowPnL
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?PoliticsNo$13K77¢85¢+$1.3K
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?PoliticsNo$12K96¢99¢+$425
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?PoliticsNo$8.7K80¢92¢+$1.2K
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?PoliticsNo$9.2K92¢95¢+$371
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?PoliticsNo$5.9K79¢93¢+$1.0K
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?PoliticsNo$5.5K72¢86¢+$1.0K
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?PoliticsYes$4.3K35¢44¢+$1.0K
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?PoliticsNo$4.9K85¢90¢+$254
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?PoliticsNo$2.9K66¢94¢+$1.2K
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?PoliticsYes$2.5K42¢57¢+$934
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?PoliticsNo$2.0K50¢66¢+$613
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?CryptoYes$48916¢64¢+$1.5K
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?PoliticsNo$1.5K33¢43¢+$440
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?PoliticsYes$1.4K62¢69¢+$176
Fed rate hike in 2026?EconomyYes$1.3K59¢68¢+$190
Will Nigel Farage get second place in the Clacton by-election?PoliticsNo$1.4K91¢97¢+$84
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?PoliticsYes$1.2K56¢63¢+$143
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?EconomyYes$1.0K53¢67¢+$251
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$80053¢68¢+$220
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?PoliticsYes$96985¢88¢+$25
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?PoliticsNo$80374¢88¢+$150
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?PoliticsYes$45022¢47¢+$480
Will gas hit $4.25 (High) by July 31?PoliticsNo$69976¢90¢+$119
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?PoliticsYes$59186¢100¢+$95
Iran full airspace closure by July 27?PoliticsNo$51977¢97¢+$138
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?PoliticsYes$31031¢58¢+$270
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?PoliticsNo$56556¢57¢+$9
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?PoliticsYes$31725¢45¢+$249
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$58077¢75¢-$19
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?PoliticsYesResolved$45090¢100¢+$50
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?PoliticsYes$47094¢99¢+$26
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?TechYes$2378.7¢18¢+$254
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?TechYes$29839¢63¢+$183
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$45243¢46¢+$29
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?FinanceNo$47595¢94¢-$6
Will GameStop acquire eBay?FinanceNo$39078¢88¢+$48
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?PoliticsNo$42084¢85¢+$3
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?TechNo$25721¢34¢+$150
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in July?FinanceNo$35597¢100¢+$10
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by July 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$29396¢99¢+$10
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?PoliticsNo$26178¢79¢+$2
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$23711¢12¢+$0
Will gas hit $3.70 (Low) by July 31?PoliticsNo$22093¢97¢+$11
Will gas hit $4.50 (High) by July 31?PoliticsNo$21595¢97¢+$5
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?PoliticsYes$1948.0¢8.5¢+$12
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31PoliticsYes$21936¢32¢-$30
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?FinanceYes$33033¢18¢-$149
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?PoliticsYes$7620¢48¢+$104
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?EconomyYes$15821¢17¢-$30
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by August 31?PoliticsNo$6963¢96¢+$37
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?PoliticsYes$1015.5¢5.5¢-$1
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in July?FinanceNo$9797¢99¢+$3
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?PoliticsNo$11022¢17¢-$24
Will there be 40 or more average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31?PoliticsYes$193.0¢13¢+$64
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?FinanceNo$5980¢99¢+$14
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$17728¢8.5¢-$123
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?PoliticsYes$4788¢96¢+$4
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?PoliticsYes$2866.0¢0.9¢-$246
Will 260 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 20-July 26?PoliticsYes$124.2¢12¢+$22
Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?PoliticsNo$244.5¢5.1¢+$3
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?EconomyYes$1926¢27¢+$0
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?PoliticsYes$337.0¢4.1¢-$14
Will 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$8211¢2.6¢-$63
Will fewer than 220 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 20-July 26?PoliticsYes$210¢64¢+$11
Will there be between 31 and 33 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31?PoliticsNo$1169¢62¢-$1
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?FinanceNo$990¢97¢+$1
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.15T by July 31?FinanceNo$110¢87¢+$8
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by July 31?FinanceNo$689¢99¢+$1
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?PoliticsNo$334¢67¢+$3
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?PoliticsNo$488¢99¢+$1
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?TechYes$20.3¢0.7¢+$2
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?PoliticsNo$146¢87¢+$1
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $71 on July 7?FinanceNoResolved$03.0¢0.0¢-$0
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$593.9¢0.0¢-$59
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 21?PoliticsYesResolved$513.1¢0.0¢-$51
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?PoliticsYesResolved$4079.2¢0.0¢-$407
Will Trump accuse Iran of election interference by July 16?PoliticsYesResolved$015¢0.0¢-$0
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?PoliticsNoResolved$2.4K73¢0.0¢-$2.4K
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June?FinanceYesResolved$414.8¢0.0¢-$41
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June?FinanceYesResolved$9836¢0.0¢-$98

Where the money comes from

Realized + open PnL by category

Politics+$100K
Finance+$17K
Crypto+$1.6K
Tech+$841
Economy+$411
Other sports+$66
World Cup+$60
Other-$12
Biggest hit
+$14K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Toughest beat
-$5.4K
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?

Recent moves

  • Bought No · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$2832h ago
  • Bought No · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$2832h ago
  • Bought Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$4304h ago
  • Bought Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$4304h ago
  • Bought Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?$7814h ago
  • Bought No · Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?$2584h ago
  • Bought Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?$1255h ago
  • Bought Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?$1.0K5h ago
  • Sold No · Will gas hit $4.25 (High) by July 31?$15h ago
  • Sold No · Iran full airspace closure by July 31?$19510h ago
  • Sold No · Iran full airspace closure by July 31?$36811h ago
  • Sold No · Iran full airspace closure by July 31?$16011h ago