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Predicting since Oct 2025190 markets tradedPolymarket profile ↗

Up $55K on Politics markets since Oct 2025.

Right now: $27K riding on Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?.

Biggest hit: +$12K on Starmer out by June 30, 2026?.

All-time PnL

+$0

This year

+$0

Last 30 days

+$0

Portfolio value

Deep stats

Bucko Oracle

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Profit over time

What they are betting now

Market	Side	Stake	Entry	Now	PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Politics	No	$27K	82¢	84¢	+$490
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Politics	No	$12K	77¢	72¢	-$894
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?Politics	No	$11K	87¢	84¢	-$431
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics	No	$5.3K	71¢	80¢	+$634
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?Politics	Yes	$5.4K	50¢	31¢	-$2.1K
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?Politics	Yes	$2.1K	86¢	88¢	+$48
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Politics	No	$2.0K	93¢	93¢	+$0
Iran full airspace closure by July 27?Politics	No	$1.5K	97¢	98¢	+$10
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026?Politics	Yes	$2.1K	33¢	20¢	-$832
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Politics	Yes	$600	32¢	49¢	+$316
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Politics	No	$916	68¢	66¢	-$34
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?Politics	No	$685	66¢	57¢	-$85
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?Politics	Yes	$263	82¢	81¢	-$4
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics	No	$147	49¢	42¢	-$21
Iran leadership change by September 30?Politics	No	$84	84¢	89¢	+$5
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics	No	$75	75¢	80¢	+$5
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics	Yes	$48	5.0¢	5.1¢	+$1
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?Politics	Yes	$456	7.1¢	0.5¢	-$424
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Politics	No	$16	79¢	80¢	+$0
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?Politics	No	$8	81¢	95¢	+$1
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?Politics	No	$8	77¢	94¢	+$2
Will Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?Politics	Yes	$3	51¢	100¢	+$2
Iran Nuke before 2027?Politics	No	$5	95¢	95¢	+$0
Will Brian Mundubile win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?Politics	No	$4	87¢	89¢	+$0
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?World Cup	NoResolved	$1.2K	74¢	0.0¢	-$1.2K
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 1?Politics	YesResolved	$50	5.3¢	0.0¢	-$50
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 2?Politics	YesResolved	$25	5.0¢	0.0¢	-$25
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Politics	NoResolved	$804	80¢	0.0¢	-$804
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 30?Politics	YesResolved	$66	5.7¢	0.0¢	-$66
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Politics	NoResolved	$1.2K	80¢	0.0¢	-$1.2K
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 3?Politics	YesResolved	$100	6.4¢	0.0¢	-$100

Where the money comes from

Realized + open PnL by category

Politics+$55K

Boxing+$1.7K

World Cup-$1.0K

Finance+$161

Economy+$1

Biggest hit

+$12K

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Toughest beat

-$2.9K

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

Recent moves

Bought No · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$5781h ago
Sold Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?$5993h ago
Bought Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$2.1K12h ago
Bought Yes · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$60013h ago
Bought No · US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$50013h ago
Bought No · Iran full airspace closure by July 27?$1.5K13h ago
Bought No · Iran full airspace closure by July 31?$2.0K13h ago
Sold No · Iran full airspace closure by August 31?$5.6K1d ago
Sold No · Iran full airspace closure by August 31?$381d ago
Sold No · Iran full airspace closure by August 31?$1.1K1d ago
Sold No · Iran full airspace closure by August 31?$31d ago
Bought No · Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$5.3K3d ago