← Whale Watch

Zarshka

Predicting since Jun 20241,809 markets tradedPolymarket profile ↗

Up $4.3K on Crypto markets since Jun 2024.

Right now: $8.5K riding on Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?.

Biggest hit: +$4.2K on Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?.

All-time PnL
+$0
This year
+$0
Last 30 days
+$0
Portfolio value
$0

Deep stats

Bucko Oracle
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Profit over time

What they are betting now

MarketSideStakeEntryNowPnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?PoliticsNo$8.5K74¢84¢+$1.2K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?PoliticsNo$6.5K72¢73¢+$100
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?PoliticsNo$2.4K24¢42¢+$1.8K
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?PoliticsNo$2.5K83¢80¢-$84
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?PoliticsNo$2.4K99¢99¢+$3
Luigi Mangione out of custody before 2027?PoliticsNo$2.3K96¢96¢-$12
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $180B by December 31?TechYes$91091¢96¢+$47
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?WeatherNo$88895¢98¢+$29
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousePoliticsYes$75138¢44¢+$119
Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?PoliticsYes$38441¢86¢+$416
Blue wave in 2026?PoliticsYes$49070¢75¢+$35
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?PoliticsNo$49182¢76¢-$33
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?PoliticsYes$58539¢30¢-$135
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?PoliticsNo$31062¢66¢+$18
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?WeatherYes$98629¢9.5¢-$663
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?CryptoNo$22157¢84¢+$103
Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?PoliticsNo$30361¢64¢+$17
Will François Ruffin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?PoliticsNo$24062¢76¢+$51
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?PoliticsNo$26553¢57¢+$21
Tshisekedi out as President of the DRC by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$23089¢93¢+$11
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?PoliticsNo$14447¢79¢+$96
Will Bernard Cazeneuve be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?PoliticsNo$26187¢79¢-$24
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?PoliticsYes$568.0¢31¢+$163
Natural Disaster in 2026?WeatherYes$43347¢22¢-$233
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?PoliticsNo$17386¢88¢+$2
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?CryptoNo$8040¢82¢+$84
US strike on Colombia by December 31?PoliticsNo$15175¢75¢-$1
Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?PoliticsNo$14739¢38¢-$4
US strike on Cuba by December 31?PoliticsNo$16181¢68¢-$26
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?PoliticsNo$16482¢66¢-$33
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election?PoliticsYes$3560.7¢0.3¢-$225
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals?NBAYes$1956.1¢3.9¢-$72
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?PoliticsNo$20451¢31¢-$82
Will Marine Tondelier be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?PoliticsNo$9760¢73¢+$21
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?PoliticsYes$20425¢14¢-$88
Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?PoliticsNo$9266¢69¢+$4
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?PoliticsNo$8888¢96¢+$8
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?PoliticsYes$11055¢48¢-$15
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$7979¢92¢+$13
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?PoliticsYes$8080¢92¢+$12
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?PoliticsNo$8080¢91¢+$11
US strike on Mexico by December 31?PoliticsNo$8787¢88¢+$1
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?TechNo$8080¢81¢+$1
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?PoliticsNo$7070¢81¢+$11
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?PoliticsNo$4040¢76¢+$36
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals?NBAYes$703.5¢3.6¢+$3
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?PoliticsYes$952.7¢2.1¢-$23
Maduro guilty of all counts?PoliticsNo$4941¢60¢+$23
Nguesso out as President of the Republic of the Congo by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$6783¢87¢+$3
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?TechNo$8080¢69¢-$11
Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026?PoliticsNo$7492¢86¢-$5
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?PoliticsNo$5973¢86¢+$10
Will Fabien Roussel be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?PoliticsNo$20641¢13¢-$141
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?PoliticsNo$5555¢63¢+$7
Will GMGN launch a token by December 31, 2026?CryptoYes$28452¢11¢-$227
Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?PoliticsNo$38076¢12¢-$322
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?PoliticsYes$10552¢25¢-$56
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?FinanceYes$5829¢19¢-$20
Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $140B by December 31?TechNo$2577¢94¢+$5
Will Chris Stigall be the Republican nominee for MO-06?PoliticsNo$4848¢30¢-$19
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Soccer (other)No$3385¢75¢-$4
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-02 House seat?PoliticsYes$6343¢18¢-$37
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026?PoliticsYes$5959¢27¢-$33
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?PoliticsNo$3737¢23¢-$14
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026?CryptoYes$2624¢20¢-$4
Will Daylight launch a token by December 31, 2026?CryptoYes$5670¢23¢-$38
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-06 House seat?PoliticsYes$7878¢8.5¢-$70
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?FinanceYes$1414¢6.7¢-$7
Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?PoliticsNo$3171¢14¢-$25
Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?PoliticsNo$1680¢25¢-$11
Will Aaron Rodgers retire before next season?NFLYes$5368¢1.4¢-$52
Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01?World CupYesResolved$10827¢0.0¢-$108
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?NBAYesResolved$14014¢0.0¢-$140
Will Colombia be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?World CupNoResolved$18261¢0.0¢-$182
Will Dan Hooker fight Paddy Pimblett next?UFC / MMAYesResolved$14169¢0.0¢-$141
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?PoliticsNoResolved$68733¢0.0¢-$687
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$46046¢0.0¢-$460
Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$909.0¢0.0¢-$90
Will Truist Financial (TFC) beat quarterly earnings?FinanceNoResolved$10142¢0.0¢-$101
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?PoliticsNoResolved$6565¢0.0¢-$65
Will PNC (PNC) beat quarterly earnings?FinanceNoResolved$22337¢0.0¢-$223
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?PoliticsNoResolved$3.8K50¢0.0¢-$3.8K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$31031¢0.0¢-$310
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$55055¢0.0¢-$550
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?World CupYesResolved$459.0¢0.0¢-$45
US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31?PoliticsYesResolved$5454¢0.0¢-$54
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?PoliticsNoResolved$25050¢0.0¢-$250
Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" during the White House Easter Egg Roll?MentionsNoResolved$4982¢0.0¢-$49
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?PoliticsNoResolved$35836¢0.0¢-$358
Will Trump say "Farmer" during the White House Easter Egg Roll?MentionsNoResolved$4473¢0.0¢-$44
Will Netflix Inc (NFLX) beat quarterly earnings?FinanceNoResolved$9712¢0.0¢-$97
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election?PoliticsNoResolved$6969¢0.0¢-$69
Will LedgerX self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?TechNoResolved$5050¢0.0¢-$50
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$1470¢0.0¢-$14
Will JPMorgan Chase (JPM) beat quarterly earnings?FinanceNoResolved$10513¢0.0¢-$105
Will Breece Hall be traded?NFLYesResolved$22048¢0.0¢-$220
Will Bank of America (BAC) beat quarterly earnings?FinanceNoResolved$14426¢0.0¢-$144
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-30?World CupYesResolved$707.0¢0.0¢-$70
Will PepsiCo Inc (PEP) beat quarterly earnings?FinanceNoResolved$14529¢0.0¢-$145
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027?PoliticsNoResolved$5050¢0.0¢-$50

Where the money comes from

Realized + open PnL by category · still crunching older history, totals will deepen

Crypto+$4.3K
Tennis-$3.6K
Finance-$2.9K
College Hoops-$1.9K
Champions League-$1.8K
UFC / MMA+$1.6K
World Cup-$1.5K
Tech-$1.4K
Weather-$1.3K
NBA-$1.1K
Mentions+$1.1K
Premier League-$880
Biggest hit
+$4.2K
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?
Toughest beat
-$2.1K
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 9?

Recent moves

  • Sold No · Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $140B by December 31?$15413h ago
  • Bought No · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$36020h ago
  • Bought No · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$36520h ago
  • Bought No · Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $140B by December 31?$222h ago
  • Sold No · Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $140B by December 31?$4022h ago
  • Bought No · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$37023h ago
  • Bought No · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$2891d ago
  • Bought No · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$861d ago
  • Bought No · Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $140B by December 31?$282d ago
  • Sold No · Will Declan Rice win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$132d ago
  • Cashed out Yes · Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?$5003d ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals?$703d ago