Polymarket Resolution Rules Checklist
Last verified: 2026-06-18 PDT
Polymarket resolution rules are the contract. The title gets attention, the price gets screenshots, but the resolution language decides who gets paid when the event settles. If you read only the headline, you are not analyzing the market. You are guessing what the contract might mean.
This checklist is built for serious prediction-market research. It works for sports, weather, politics, macro, crypto, culture, entertainment, and one-off viral events. The examples change, but the process stays the same: read the wording, verify the source, translate price into probability, size the downside, and journal the reasoning.
What resolution rules are
Resolution rules explain how a market will determine the winning outcome. They can include:
- ▸the exact event that must happen;
- ▸the deadline and timezone;
- ▸the source used for confirmation;
- ▸whether revisions count;
- ▸what happens if an event is delayed, canceled, renamed, or disputed;
- ▸whether early resolution is possible;
- ▸precision rules for numbers, temperatures, dates, or percentages.
A prediction market is only as clear as its criteria. Some markets are straightforward. Others require careful reading because one word can change the outcome.
The Bucko resolution checklist
| Step | What to check | What to write down |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Market question | The exact title, copied word for word |
| 2 | Outcome definition | What must happen for Yes and No |
| 3 | Deadline | Date, time, and timezone if listed |
| 4 | Source | Official source, data page, or stated authority |
| 5 | Edge cases | Delays, revisions, ties, cancellations, ambiguity |
| 6 | Price | Best executable bid/ask, not just midpoint |
| 7 | Liquidity | Size available near entry and likely exit |
| 8 | Risk | Maximum loss and position cap |
| 9 | Review trigger | What new fact would make you update |
| 10 | Postmortem | What happened, what you missed, what improved |
This turns a trade idea into a research process. It also creates an audit trail for later review.
Example: title vs contract
A title might say, "Will Candidate X win?" That sounds simple. But the description may specify a particular office, party nomination, official certification source, recount treatment, replacement-candidate scenario, or deadline. If you miss those details, your thesis may be about a different event than the one being traded.
The same applies to weather and sports. A market may use one airport station, one league source, one tournament body, one data provider, or a specific publication cutoff. The headline is not enough.
Why this matters for price
Price is a probability estimate only after you understand the contract. A 0.30 Yes price on a broad-sounding headline may actually be expensive if the rule is narrow. A 0.70 price may not be as safe as it looks if the source is uncertain or the market has a messy edge case.
Use this formula:
Good research = contract clarity + evidence quality + executable price + controlled size.
If any part is weak, write that down before you act.
Common resolution mistakes
- ▸Reading social media instead of the source. The listed source controls the market.
- ▸Ignoring timezone. Date boundaries can decide markets.
- ▸Forgetting revisions. Some data can change after first publication.
- ▸Assuming intent. Markets resolve by wording, not by what traders thought it meant.
- ▸Skipping the postmortem. Without review, the same mistake repeats.
Bucko workflow
Use Bucko as the place to store screenshots, source links, thesis notes, entry assumptions, guardrails, and post-resolution reviews. A clean journal helps separate a good process with a bad outcome from a weak process that got lucky.
Polymarket CTA
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Sources and last-verified notes
- ▸Polymarket docs, market data overview and CLOB overview, last verified 2026-06-18.
- ▸Polymarket Gamma API active-market sample, last checked 2026-06-18, showed market descriptions can include resolution sources, precision, timing, and revision language.
- ▸User-provided Bucko/Polymarket partner offer: code BUCKO, $50 deposit bonus for eligible U.S. app downloads.