 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Politics | No | $27K | 67¢ | 72¢ | +$1.8K |
 Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?Politics | No | $24K | 93¢ | 96¢ | +$715 |
 Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics | No | $23K | 90¢ | 92¢ | +$290 |
 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $20K | 81¢ | 82¢ | +$326 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics | No | $14K | 47¢ | 43¢ | -$1.3K |
 Fed rate hike in 2026?Economy | Yes | $8.5K | 67¢ | 69¢ | +$159 |
 US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Politics | No | $7.4K | 63¢ | 68¢ | +$647 |
 US strike on Cuba by December 31?Politics | No | $6.0K | 56¢ | 68¢ | +$1.3K |
 Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics | Yes | $7.5K | 67¢ | 56¢ | -$1.2K |
 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?Politics | No | $5.1K | 92¢ | 96¢ | +$171 |
 Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Politics | No | $4.0K | 74¢ | 94¢ | +$1.1K |
 Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?Economy | No | $5.2K | 91¢ | 83¢ | -$468 |
| Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?Economy | Yes | $2.8K | 48¢ | 61¢ | +$755 |
 Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Politics | No | $3.3K | 77¢ | 84¢ | +$285 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?Politics | No | $5.8K | 47¢ | 27¢ | -$2.5K |
 US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?Politics | Yes | $1.9K | 13¢ | 23¢ | +$1.4K |
 Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Politics | No | $2.8K | 68¢ | 66¢ | -$103 |
 UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?Politics | Yes | $2.4K | 29¢ | 31¢ | +$102 |
 Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics | Yes | $2.2K | 72¢ | 79¢ | +$201 |
 Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Politics | No | $2.0K | 56¢ | 63¢ | +$232 |
 Iran leadership change by July 31?Politics | No | $2.0K | 94¢ | 99¢ | +$101 |
| Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?Politics | No | $2.0K | 87¢ | 94¢ | +$154 |
 Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?Politics | Yes | $1.7K | 74¢ | 86¢ | +$268 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Politics | Yes | $692 | 17¢ | 50¢ | +$1.3K |
 Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics | Yes | $2.4K | 29¢ | 24¢ | -$421 |
| Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?Politics | No | $2.2K | 27¢ | 24¢ | -$299 |
| US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?Politics | Yes | $1.0K | 25¢ | 44¢ | +$735 |
 Will no one dissent the July Fed decision?Economy | No | $1.6K | 66¢ | 73¢ | +$175 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?Politics | Yes | $5.2K | 20¢ | 6.5¢ | -$3.5K |
 US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Politics | No | $1.7K | 59¢ | 55¢ | -$125 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Politics | Yes | $2.3K | 28¢ | 19¢ | -$801 |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 31?Politics | No | $1.1K | 55¢ | 69¢ | +$299 |
 Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics | Yes | $3.4K | 32¢ | 12¢ | -$2.0K |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Politics | No | $1.3K | 74¢ | 76¢ | +$30 |
 Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?Weather | Yes | $399 | 18¢ | 55¢ | +$822 |
 Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?Economy | Yes | $1.2K | 60¢ | 61¢ | +$10 |
 GTA VI released before November 2026?Culture | No | $1.1K | 89¢ | 97¢ | +$102 |
 Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics | Yes | $1.9K | 34¢ | 20¢ | -$797 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics | No | $1.1K | 94¢ | 96¢ | +$25 |
| Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Economy | Yes | $716 | 50¢ | 68¢ | +$249 |
 Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?Politics | Yes | $810 | 35¢ | 41¢ | +$117 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $1.4K | 62¢ | 41¢ | -$493 |
| Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?Weather | Yes | $327 | 17¢ | 42¢ | +$487 |
 Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Finance | Yes | $432 | 23¢ | 43¢ | +$355 |
| Iran invades Kuwait by July 31?Politics | No | $766 | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$7 |
 Will Nigel Farage get second place in the Clacton by-election?Politics | No | $750 | 94¢ | 96¢ | +$17 |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?Politics | Yes | $405 | 16¢ | 27¢ | +$294 |
 Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?Politics | No | $413 | 55¢ | 93¢ | +$285 |
 Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?Politics | No | $483 | 67¢ | 95¢ | +$197 |
 Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto | Yes | $542 | 28¢ | 35¢ | +$135 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Politics | Yes | $696 | 41¢ | 36¢ | -$94 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics | Yes | $712 | 32¢ | 27¢ | -$113 |
 Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics | No | $650 | 71¢ | 64¢ | -$66 |
 US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?Politics | Yes | $410 | 59¢ | 66¢ | +$44 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?Politics | Yes | $545 | 3.6¢ | 3.0¢ | -$94 |
 Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics | Yes | $847 | 1.0¢ | 0.5¢ | -$402 |
 Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics | Yes | $27 | 0.5¢ | 8.8¢ | +$415 |
 Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Politics | No | $464 | 65¢ | 59¢ | -$41 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Politics | No | $358 | 68¢ | 79¢ | +$57 |
| Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics | No | $341 | 71¢ | 80¢ | +$42 |
 Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy | No | $339 | 94¢ | 97¢ | +$13 |
 Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics | No | $201 | 50¢ | 80¢ | +$118 |
 Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?Politics | No | $321 | 35¢ | 34¢ | -$14 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Politics | No | $260 | 83¢ | 92¢ | +$26 |
 Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics | Yes | $222 | 6.4¢ | 8.2¢ | +$61 |
 Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics | No | $273 | 91¢ | 90¢ | -$5 |
 Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?Politics | No | $246 | 79¢ | 79¢ | -$1 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?Crypto | Yes | $300 | 15¢ | 12¢ | -$70 |
 Will the Republicans win the Idaho governor race in 2026?Politics | Yes | $227 | 94¢ | 94¢ | -$1 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Politics | Yes | $756 | 22¢ | 6.5¢ | -$537 |
| Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Politics | Yes | $232 | 25¢ | 23¢ | -$18 |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics | Yes | $202 | 49¢ | 43¢ | -$27 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?Politics | Yes | $282 | 12¢ | 7.5¢ | -$110 |
 Anthropic IPO before 2027?Tech | Yes | $187 | 75¢ | 68¢ | -$18 |
 Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?Politics | No | $158 | 90¢ | 95¢ | +$10 |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?Politics | Yes | $191 | 30¢ | 25¢ | -$35 |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?Politics | Yes | $676 | 52¢ | 12¢ | -$520 |
 Will Vivek Ramaswamy announce a presidential run before 2027?Politics | No | $147 | 88¢ | 94¢ | +$9 |
 Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Politics | No | $127 | 75¢ | 92¢ | +$28 |
| Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Politics | Yes | $116 | 12¢ | 16¢ | +$34 |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Politics | Yes | $406 | 40¢ | 14¢ | -$258 |
 2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?Politics | No | $132 | 93¢ | 99¢ | +$8 |
 Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?Politics | Yes | $21 | 6.5¢ | 41¢ | +$111 |
 Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?Politics | Yes | $132 | 18¢ | 18¢ | -$4 |
 Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics | Yes | $68 | 1.6¢ | 2.9¢ | +$54 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Politics | Yes | $356 | 1.9¢ | 0.7¢ | -$234 |
 Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?Tech | Yes | $95 | 59¢ | 74¢ | +$23 |
| Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026?Politics | Yes | $21 | 6.5¢ | 36¢ | +$93 |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?Politics | No | $106 | 88¢ | 91¢ | +$3 |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 15?Politics | No | $75 | 58¢ | 77¢ | +$25 |
| Iran full airspace closure by July 27?Politics | No | $77 | 77¢ | 97¢ | +$20 |
 Will Donald Trump visit India in 2026?Politics | Yes | $685 | 66¢ | 9.0¢ | -$591 |
 OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?Tech | No | $77 | 77¢ | 93¢ | +$16 |
 Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Politics | Yes | $219 | 22¢ | 9.0¢ | -$128 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto | Yes | $67 | 21¢ | 26¢ | +$14 |
| Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?Politics | Yes | $134 | 5.7¢ | 3.5¢ | -$53 |
 Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026?Crypto | Yes | $333 | 16¢ | 3.6¢ | -$255 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto | Yes | $599 | 75¢ | 9.5¢ | -$523 |
| Will United Russia win between 310 and 324 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Politics | Yes | $43 | 14¢ | 23¢ | +$27 |
| Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto | Yes | $404 | 22¢ | 3.7¢ | -$335 |
Sold No · Will Nigel Farage up his vote share in Clacton?$134m ago