← Whale Watch

Valen9

Predicting since Jan 2026697 markets tradedPolymarket profile ↗

Up $298K on Politics markets since Jan 2026.

Right now: $156K across 2 Politics markets.

Biggest hit: +$241K on US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?.

All-time PnL
+$0
This year
+$0
Last 30 days
+$0
Portfolio value
$0

Deep stats

Bucko Oracle
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Profit over time

What they are betting now

MarketSideStakeEntryNowPnL
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?PoliticsNo$83K93¢95¢+$1.6K
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?PoliticsNo$73K98¢99¢+$811
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?PoliticsNo$52K87¢81¢-$3.9K
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?PoliticsYes$40K81¢81¢+$205
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?PoliticsYes$33K82¢86¢+$1.5K
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?PoliticsNo$29K67¢69¢+$1.3K
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?PoliticsNo$25K82¢86¢+$1.1K
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?PoliticsNo$21K80¢95¢+$3.7K
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?PoliticsNo$23K72¢73¢+$278
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?PoliticsNo$22K96¢96¢+$94
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?PoliticsNo$16K91¢99¢+$1.4K
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$15K77¢88¢+$2.1K
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$15K96¢99¢+$487
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?PoliticsNo$13K90¢99¢+$1.3K
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?PoliticsNo$13K88¢88¢-$73
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?PoliticsNo$10K78¢99¢+$2.6K
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?PoliticsNo$11K93¢96¢+$365
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?PoliticsNo$9.8K88¢93¢+$557
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?PoliticsNo$9.3K92¢99¢+$719
Will GameStop acquire eBay?FinanceNo$8.5K85¢88¢+$200
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?PoliticsNo$7.8K90¢98¢+$686
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?PoliticsYes$8.5K83¢79¢-$390
Iran leadership change by December 31?PoliticsNo$8.4K84¢80¢-$450
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?PoliticsYes$4.2K22¢41¢+$3.6K
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?PoliticsNo$6.5K81¢94¢+$1000
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?PoliticsYes$3.2K21¢50¢+$4.2K
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?PoliticsNo$6.5K89¢99¢+$675
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?PoliticsYes$4.4K72¢99¢+$1.6K
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?PoliticsNo$5.7K97¢99¢+$144
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$6.2K72¢68¢-$358
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026PoliticsYes$4.6K58¢74¢+$1.2K
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?PoliticsNo$5.7K92¢93¢+$47
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$4.9K93¢99¢+$329
Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?PoliticsNo$4.5K91¢99¢+$418
Iran leadership change by July 31?PoliticsNo$4.9K98¢99¢+$58
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?PoliticsNo$4.5K23¢24¢+$83
Iran leadership change by September 30?PoliticsNo$4.5K90¢89¢-$75
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?PoliticsNo$4.3K97¢99¢+$90
Fed rate hike in 2026?EconomyYes$3.2K65¢69¢+$170
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?PoliticsNo$2.4K48¢63¢+$705
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?PoliticsNo$2.3K78¢87¢+$255
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$9.9K26¢6.5¢-$7.4K
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?PoliticsNo$2.0K67¢79¢+$360
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?PoliticsYes$3.0K31¢22¢-$882
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?PoliticsNo$1.9K98¢100¢+$35
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026?CultureNo$1.5K72¢76¢+$64
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?PoliticsNo$65065¢63¢-$25
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?PoliticsYes$34845¢61¢+$124
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?PoliticsNo$42673¢76¢+$18
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?PoliticsYes$54027¢13¢-$280
Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?PoliticsYes$27027¢25¢-$25
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?PoliticsYes$10517¢22¢+$28
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?PoliticsYes$1400.7¢0.7¢-$10
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?TechNo$10888¢90¢+$2
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?PoliticsYes$12439¢31¢-$27
Will Laurence Fox get second place in the Clacton by-election?PoliticsYes$815.6¢3.8¢-$27
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? PoliticsNo$5198¢99¢+$1
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?PoliticsNo$1673¢99¢+$6
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31?PoliticsYes$70014¢0.3¢-$685
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$4676.8¢0.0¢-$467
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?PoliticsNoResolved$412¢0.0¢-$4
Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30?PoliticsYesResolved$5414.0¢0.0¢-$541
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$4.9K9.5¢0.0¢-$4.9K
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 22, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$1002.0¢0.0¢-$100
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$8.9K4.4¢0.0¢-$8.9K
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?PoliticsYesResolved$5.3K19¢0.0¢-$5.3K
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?PoliticsYesResolved$1641.3¢0.0¢-$164
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$3384.3¢0.0¢-$338
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$37.5¢0.0¢-$3
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$4760.8¢0.0¢-$476
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$2.3K7.1¢0.0¢-$2.3K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$3.8K9.5¢0.0¢-$3.8K
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$1.5K11¢0.0¢-$1.5K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$2061.7¢0.0¢-$206
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31?PoliticsNoResolved$2.4K61¢0.0¢-$2.4K
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$2102.1¢0.0¢-$210
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$22K6.3¢0.0¢-$22K
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?PoliticsNoResolved$27K87¢0.0¢-$27K
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?PoliticsYesResolved$982¢0.0¢-$9
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$5.4K18¢0.0¢-$5.4K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$2001.0¢0.0¢-$200
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$9.1K13¢0.0¢-$9.1K
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?PoliticsNoResolved$24K63¢0.0¢-$24K
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?PoliticsYesResolved$2107.0¢0.0¢-$210
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?PoliticsYesResolved$23K49¢0.0¢-$23K
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?PoliticsNoResolved$468¢0.0¢-$4

Where the money comes from

Realized + open PnL by category

Politics+$298K
Crypto+$30K
NFL+$21K
Mentions+$6.7K
World Cup+$6.4K
Culture+$5.4K
Olympics+$4.8K
Boxing-$4.2K
Tech-$3.4K
Hockey (other)-$839
Finance+$243
Economy+$175
Biggest hit
+$241K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Toughest beat
-$84K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Recent moves

  • Bought No · NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$3.4K5m ago
  • Bought Yes · Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.2K31m ago
  • Sold No · Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$548m ago
  • Sold No · Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$51h ago
  • Sold No · Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$51h ago
  • Bought Yes · IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?$1051h ago
  • Bought No · Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?$4161h ago
  • Sold No · Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$51h ago
  • Sold No · Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?$12K1h ago
  • Sold No · Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$32h ago
  • Bought Yes · Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?$4202h ago
  • Sold No · Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$53h ago