 Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics | Yes | $100 | 25¢ | 47¢ | +$87 |
 Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics | Yes | $852 | 43¢ | 6.5¢ | -$725 |
 Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics | Yes | $115 | 54¢ | 50¢ | -$8 |
 Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech | No | $60 | 36¢ | 40¢ | +$7 |
 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousePolitics | No | $58 | 58¢ | 51¢ | -$8 |
 Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics | Yes | $169 | 49¢ | 14¢ | -$122 |
 Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics | No | $47 | 18¢ | 17¢ | -$3 |
 Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Politics | Yes | $30 | 55¢ | 74¢ | +$10 |
 Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Politics | No | $47 | 71¢ | 57¢ | -$9 |
 US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics | No | $35 | 64¢ | 68¢ | +$2 |
 US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?Politics | Yes | $42 | 64¢ | 55¢ | -$6 |
| Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?Politics | Yes | $34 | 26¢ | 28¢ | +$2 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Politics | No | $28 | 50¢ | 66¢ | +$9 |
 Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?Tech | Yes | $33 | 74¢ | 82¢ | +$3 |
 Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 15?Tech | No | $7 | 20¢ | 97¢ | +$28 |
 Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?Tech | No | $15 | 27¢ | 65¢ | +$20 |
 Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Politics | Yes | $37 | 26¢ | 24¢ | -$3 |
 Colorado Rockies vs. New York YankeesMLB | New York Yankees | $33 | 75¢ | 75¢ | -$0 |
 Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?Politics | No | $14 | 42¢ | 99¢ | +$19 |
 Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?Tech | No | $34 | 67¢ | 65¢ | -$1 |
 Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?Politics | No | $31 | 32¢ | 32¢ | -$0 |
 Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics | No | $82 | 41¢ | 15¢ | -$52 |
 US-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026?Politics | No | $24 | 74¢ | 90¢ | +$5 |
 Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?Tech | No | $17 | 39¢ | 66¢ | +$12 |
 Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?Politics | No | $20 | 61¢ | 86¢ | +$8 |
| Houston Astros vs. Tampa Bay RaysMLB | Tampa Bay Rays | $27 | 62¢ | 62¢ | -$0 |
 Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics | No | $19 | 34¢ | 49¢ | +$8 |
| New York Mets vs. New York YankeesMLB | New York Yankees | $25 | 58¢ | 59¢ | +$0 |
 Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?Tech | Yes | $18 | 54¢ | 74¢ | +$6 |
 Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics | Yes | $25 | 50¢ | 49¢ | -$1 |
 Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics | No | $25 | 50¢ | 48¢ | -$1 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?Tech | Yes | $35 | 60¢ | 35¢ | -$15 |
 Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1490?Tech | No | $15 | 45¢ | 62¢ | +$6 |
| Seattle Mariners vs. AthleticsMLB | Seattle Mariners | $19 | 59¢ | 61¢ | +$0 |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?Tech | Yes | $21 | 65¢ | 59¢ | -$2 |
 Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?Politics | Yes | $25 | 15¢ | 12¢ | -$6 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee BrewersMLB | Milwaukee Brewers | $19 | 62¢ | 64¢ | +$0 |
| Colorado Rockies vs. Detroit TigersMLB | Detroit Tigers | $19 | 58¢ | 57¢ | -$0 |
 Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Politics | No | $22 | 40¢ | 35¢ | -$3 |
| San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco GiantsMLB | San Diego Padres | $18 | 55¢ | 55¢ | -$0 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue JaysMLB | Toronto Blue Jays | $18 | 55¢ | 55¢ | -$0 |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics | Yes | $19 | 10¢ | 9.5¢ | -$1 |
 US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Politics | No | $32 | 72¢ | 40¢ | -$14 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota TwinsMLB | Cleveland Guardians | $17 | 51¢ | 51¢ | -$0 |
| Chicago White Sox vs. St. Louis CardinalsMLB | Chicago White Sox | $17 | 51¢ | 51¢ | -$0 |
 Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?Politics | Yes | $22 | 21¢ | 16¢ | -$5 |
 Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?Politics | Yes | $18 | 33¢ | 30¢ | -$2 |
 Will DeepSeek be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?Politics | Yes | $17 | 30¢ | 30¢ | -$0 |
 Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics | Yes | $39 | 37¢ | 14¢ | -$24 |
 Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics | Yes | $19 | 38¢ | 28¢ | -$5 |
 Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by December 31, 2026?Politics | Yes | $24 | 21¢ | 12¢ | -$10 |
| Houston Astros vs. Philadelphia PhilliesMLB | Philadelphia Phillies | $14 | 62¢ | 63¢ | +$0 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech | Yes | $4 | 6.0¢ | 19¢ | +$9 |
 Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026?Culture | No | $11 | 34¢ | 38¢ | +$1 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs. Washington NationalsMLB | Washington Nationals | $12 | 56¢ | 56¢ | -$0 |
 Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?Politics | Yes | $23 | 53¢ | 27¢ | -$11 |
 Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by September 30, 2026?Politics | Yes | $19 | 35¢ | 22¢ | -$7 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago White SoxMLB | Chicago White Sox | $11 | 52¢ | 51¢ | -$0 |
 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Politics | No | $16 | 47¢ | 33¢ | -$5 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs. Atlanta BravesMLB | Tampa Bay Rays | $11 | 48¢ | 48¢ | -$0 |
| Texas Rangers vs. Seattle MarinersMLB | Texas Rangers | $10 | 46¢ | 47¢ | +$0 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics | Yes | $10 | 24¢ | 24¢ | +$0 |
 Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Politics | No | $12 | 22¢ | 16¢ | -$3 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta BravesMLB | Philadelphia Phillies | $9 | 40¢ | 40¢ | -$0 |
 Will Xiaomi be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?Politics | Yes | $8 | 15¢ | 16¢ | +$0 |
 Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?Politics | Yes | $6 | 18¢ | 26¢ | +$2 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech | Yes | $5 | 8.0¢ | 11¢ | +$2 |
 Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?Tech | No | $17 | 20¢ | 8.5¢ | -$10 |
 Will Iran target Qatar by September 30, 2026?Politics | Yes | $18 | 54¢ | 22¢ | -$11 |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026?Tech | No | $27 | 41¢ | 11¢ | -$20 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Tech | No | $9 | 16¢ | 13¢ | -$2 |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1510?Tech | Yes | $13 | 19¢ | 10¢ | -$6 |
 Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics | Yes | $8 | 8.6¢ | 7.2¢ | -$1 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by September 30, 2026?Tech | Yes | $9 | 16¢ | 11¢ | -$3 |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?Politics | Yes | $4 | 19¢ | 28¢ | +$2 |
 Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics | Yes | $3 | 15¢ | 20¢ | +$1 |
| Kansas City Royals vs. Boston Red SoxMLB | Boston Red Sox | $4 | 63¢ | 61¢ | -$0 |
 US government bans an open source AI model in 2026?Politics | Yes | $29 | 52¢ | 6.5¢ | -$25 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Miami MarlinsMLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | $3 | 64¢ | 68¢ | +$0 |
 Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York YankeesMLB | Tampa Bay Rays | $3 | 43¢ | 43¢ | -$0 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago CubsMLB | Chicago Cubs | $3 | 54¢ | 52¢ | -$0 |
| Texas Rangers vs. Arizona DiamondbacksMLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | $3 | 50¢ | 53¢ | +$0 |
 Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech | Yes | $1 | 0.6¢ | 0.8¢ | +$0 |
 US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Politics | Yes | $11 | 28¢ | 5.0¢ | -$9 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Tech | Yes | $2 | 3.0¢ | 2.8¢ | -$0 |
| New York Mets vs. Miami MarlinsMLB | Miami MarlinsResolved | $12 | 55¢ | 0.0¢ | -$12 |
| Houston Astros vs. Philadelphia PhilliesMLB | Philadelphia PhilliesResolved | $19 | 59¢ | 0.0¢ | -$19 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs. Boston Red SoxMLB | Boston Red SoxResolved | $32 | 58¢ | 0.0¢ | -$32 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago White SoxMLB | Chicago White SoxResolved | $3 | 56¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Kansas City RoyalsMLB | Arizona DiamondbacksResolved | $12 | 53¢ | 0.0¢ | -$12 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Francisco GiantsMLB | St. Louis CardinalsResolved | $11 | 50¢ | 0.0¢ | -$11 |
| Washington Nationals vs. San Diego PadresMLB | Washington NationalsResolved | $4 | 37¢ | 0.0¢ | -$4 |