← Whale Watch

politicalsavant

Predicting since Oct 20242,029 markets tradedPolymarket profile ↗

Down $16K on Politics markets since Oct 2024.

Right now: $1.8K riding on Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?.

Biggest hit: +$2.0K on Will Trump say 'Elon' or 'Musk' during the 2025 State of the Union?.

All-time PnL
+$0
This year
+$0
Last 30 days
+$0
Portfolio value
$0

Deep stats

Bucko Oracle
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Profit over time

What they are betting now

MarketSideStakeEntryNowPnL
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?PoliticsNo$1.8K75¢77¢+$37
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?PoliticsYes$1.5K39¢43¢+$141
Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?PoliticsYes$85053¢59¢+$83
Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026?PoliticsYes$65364¢84¢+$203
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?PoliticsNo$67360¢76¢+$169
Will Bobby Witt Jr. win the 2026 American League MVP Award?MLBNo$50372¢97¢+$172
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year?Premier LeagueYes$53417¢22¢+$134
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?PoliticsYes$56883¢94¢+$69
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?PoliticsNo$55132¢37¢+$70
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?TechYes$43429¢31¢+$24
Will Cristopher Sánchez lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?MLBNo$39284¢96¢+$55
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?PoliticsYes$53956¢46¢-$99
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?WeatherYes$42084¢88¢+$17
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?NBANo$20249¢100¢+$212
Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?PoliticsNo$40164¢64¢+$0
Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?PoliticsYes$36642¢44¢+$15
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?PoliticsNo$34736¢36¢-$2
Will Cam Schlittler win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?MLBNo$33246¢47¢+$5
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?PoliticsNo$31790¢93¢+$8
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?PoliticsYes$3208.4¢8.1¢-$14
Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026?PoliticsYes$58232¢16¢-$303
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?PoliticsNo$23934¢35¢+$4
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?PoliticsNo$18045¢56¢+$46
Will Jim Oberweis be the Republican nominee for FL-19?PoliticsNo$22890¢80¢-$25
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?PoliticsNo$17380¢83¢+$5
Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026?PoliticsYes$17342¢43¢+$2
Will Dylan Cease win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?MLBYes$9422¢38¢+$73
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?PoliticsNo$15075¢74¢-$3
Will the Smithsonian Women’s History Museum become law this year?PoliticsNo$11386¢94¢+$9
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?PoliticsYes$15639¢24¢-$61
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?PoliticsNo$8057¢56¢-$1
Will $2.50 Coin become law this year?PoliticsNo$7485¢89¢+$3
Will Jacob Misiorowski strike out the most batters during the 2026 MLB regular season?MLBYes$5752¢70¢+$19
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?PoliticsYes$16831¢14¢-$92
Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?PoliticsYes$6861¢67¢+$7
Will Will Venable win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year?MLBYes$5739¢51¢+$17
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?PoliticsYes$37117¢3.4¢-$299
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?EconomyYes$11013¢8.5¢-$38
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?PoliticsNo$8138¢34¢-$10
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?PoliticsYes$6577¢81¢+$3
Will Matt Little be the Democratic nominee for MN-02?PoliticsYes$6782¢76¢-$5
Will Movsar Evloev be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026?UFC / MMANo$5657¢63¢+$6
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?WeatherYes$16856¢17¢-$118
Will the SELF DRIVE Act become law this year?PoliticsNo$5191¢82¢-$6
Will Paul Skenes strike out the most batters during the 2026 MLB regular season?MLBYes$545.4¢4.4¢-$10
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?PoliticsYes$5339¢33¢-$9
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?PoliticsNo$3256¢66¢+$6
Will the SHOWER Act become law this year?PoliticsNo$3383¢93¢+$4
Will Export-control chip security become law this year?PoliticsNo$2457¢80¢+$9
Will Walt Weiss win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?MLBYes$2917¢18¢+$2
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?PoliticsYes$2246¢48¢+$1
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?PoliticsYes$2335¢33¢-$1
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?PoliticsNo$2417¢14¢-$5
Will Russell Fry be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?PoliticsYes$196.6¢6.0¢-$2
Will Tram Nguyen be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?PoliticsYes$1526¢28¢+$1
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?PoliticsNo$1529¢27¢-$1
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?TechNo$145.1¢4.8¢-$1
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?WeatherYes$5930¢6.6¢-$46
Will "Digger" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?CultureNo$1227¢28¢+$1
Will the Democratic Party win the CT-04 House seat?PoliticsYes$1293¢94¢+$0
Will Credit-card routing competition become law this year?PoliticsNo$990¢94¢+$0
Will Michael B. Jordan be named People's Sexiest Man Alive in 2026?CultureNo$881¢91¢+$1
Will Yordan Alvarez lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season?MLBYes$511¢17¢+$3
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?CryptoYes$711¢12¢+$1
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?TechYes$9041¢2.6¢-$84
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?PoliticsYes$575¢82¢+$0
Will Alexander Volkanovski be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026?UFC / MMANo$542¢46¢+$0
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?PoliticsNo$579¢78¢-$0
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin before 2027?PoliticsYes$44.9¢4.6¢-$0
Will Shohei Ohtani lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?MLBYes$10.7¢2.1¢+$2
Will Rodrigo Pacheco win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?PoliticsYes$916¢4.5¢-$6
Will Aaron Judge win the 2026 American League Hank Aaron Award?MLBYes$64.8¢1.6¢-$4
Will GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026? TechYes$20.8¢0.5¢-$1
Will Trump say "Iran" 3+ times during White House Correspondents Dinner?MentionsNoResolved$1562¢0.0¢-$15

Where the money comes from

Realized + open PnL by category · still crunching older history, totals will deepen

Politics-$16K
MLB+$5.3K
NBA-$2.7K
Premier League+$2.3K
NHL+$2.0K
Mentions+$1.9K
NFL-$1.6K
Soccer (other)-$1.5K
Crypto+$1.2K
Culture-$932
La Liga+$839
Bundesliga-$691
Biggest hit
+$2.0K
Will Trump say 'Elon' or 'Musk' during the 2025 State of the Union?
Toughest beat
-$13K
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?

Recent moves

  • Sold Yes · Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?$246m ago
  • Sold Yes · Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?$241h ago
  • Sold Yes · Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?$91h ago
  • Sold Yes · Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?$41h ago
  • Sold Yes · Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?$241h ago
  • Sold Yes · Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?$241h ago
  • Sold Yes · Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?$241h ago
  • Bought Yes · Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?$61h ago
  • Bought Yes · Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?$61h ago
  • Bought No · Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?$151h ago
  • Sold Yes · Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?$232h ago
  • Bought No · Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?$152h ago