← Whale Watch

paddaa

Predicting since Jul 20251,334 markets tradedPolymarket profile ↗

Up $59K on Politics markets since Jul 2025.

Right now: $26K across 2 Politics markets.

Biggest hit: +$5.2K on Will the US strike Somalia next?.

All-time PnL
+$0
This year
+$0
Last 30 days
+$0
Portfolio value
$0

Deep stats

Bucko Oracle
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Profit over time

What they are betting now

MarketSideStakeEntryNowPnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$16K79¢93¢+$2.7K
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?PoliticsNo$17K91¢95¢+$817
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?PoliticsNo$14K71¢81¢+$1.8K
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?PoliticsNo$9.3K59¢69¢+$1.6K
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$10K60¢56¢-$640
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?PoliticsNo$7.3K60¢80¢+$2.4K
Iran full airspace closure by July 27?PoliticsNo$5.9K84¢97¢+$956
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?PoliticsYes$7.0K59¢56¢-$298
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?PoliticsNo$5.5K59¢71¢+$1.1K
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?PoliticsNo$5.1K58¢73¢+$1.4K
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?PoliticsNo$6.2K56¢56¢+$101
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?PoliticsYes$4.9K46¢60¢+$1.4K
US strike on Cuba by December 31?PoliticsNo$5.2K56¢68¢+$1.1K
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?PoliticsYes$3.9K71¢99¢+$1.5K
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?PoliticsNo$5.2K87¢90¢+$135
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?PoliticsNo$8.1K84¢51¢-$3.2K
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?PoliticsYes$3.0K49¢69¢+$1.2K
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures?PoliticsNo$3.0K64¢89¢+$1.2K
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?PoliticsNo$3.5K72¢80¢+$376
Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium?PoliticsNo$3.5K82¢89¢+$258
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?PoliticsYes$2.5K74¢81¢+$243
Will John Brennan be arrested before 2027?PoliticsNo$1.9K58¢73¢+$471
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?PoliticsNo$2.5K80¢75¢-$143
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?PoliticsNo$1.9K83¢87¢+$76
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?PoliticsYes$66519¢44¢+$863
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?PoliticsYes$1.0K31¢41¢+$335
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?PoliticsYes$38513¢43¢+$879
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?PoliticsNo$1.1K73¢76¢+$42
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?PoliticsYes$1917.6¢41¢+$835
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?PoliticsYes$91217¢17¢-$23
Will James Clapper be arrested before 2027?PoliticsNo$74969¢81¢+$124
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?PoliticsNo$31128¢74¢+$506
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?PoliticsNo$78772¢71¢-$12
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$1.1K58¢38¢-$367
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?PoliticsYes$1.4K41¢21¢-$679
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$62798¢99¢+$12
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by July 31?PoliticsYes$89034¢21¢-$340
US x Cuba economic deal by December 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$50241¢45¢+$47
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?PoliticsYes$1.6K40¢13¢-$1.1K
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?PoliticsYes$23724¢45¢+$208
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?PoliticsNo$38381¢86¢+$21
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$45026¢23¢-$52
Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026?PoliticsYes$736.5¢36¢+$324
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?PoliticsNo$34471¢79¢+$34
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?PoliticsNo$23569¢79¢+$36
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?PoliticsYes$2552.3¢2.4¢+$8
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?PoliticsYes$12526¢45¢+$89
Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by Sep 30?PoliticsNo$16386¢92¢+$11
Will Letitia James be arrested before 2027?PoliticsNo$13065¢85¢+$39
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?PoliticsYes$28325¢14¢-$116
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?PoliticsYes$26313¢8.5¢-$97
Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$9036¢63¢+$65
Will Mahmoud Khalil be arrested before 2027?PoliticsNo$14655¢54¢-$3
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$30325¢11¢-$171
Will the US strike 10 countries in 2026?PoliticsYes$576.5¢11¢+$39
Will Samuel Garcia be out as Governor of Nuevo Leon by July 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$7778¢97¢+$19
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$8573¢79¢+$7
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?PoliticsNo$4967¢94¢+$20
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?PoliticsYes$1007.0¢4.8¢-$32
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$3966¢100¢+$20
Will the US strike 11 countries in 2026?PoliticsYes$576.5¢6.2¢-$3
Trump pays Jan 6 rioter?PoliticsNo$4787¢99¢+$6
Will Israel strike 10 countries in 2026?PoliticsNo$4798¢100¢+$1
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?PoliticsNo$3530¢39¢+$10
Will Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$2842¢65¢+$15
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?PoliticsYes$3734¢32¢-$2
Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026?PoliticsYes$246.3¢8.3¢+$8
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$2373.2¢0.4¢-$211
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?PoliticsYes$2305.3¢0.5¢-$206
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?PoliticsYes$2056.3¢0.7¢-$184
Will Israel strike 7 countries in 2026?PoliticsYes$556.3¢2.3¢-$35
US x Cuba economic deal by July 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$253.0¢2.0¢-$9
Will the US strike 12 countries in 2026?PoliticsYes$576.5¢1.8¢-$41
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?PoliticsYes$7919¢3.9¢-$63
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$44018¢0.6¢-$425
Will Israel strike 11 countries in 2026?PoliticsYes$1206.3¢0.7¢-$108
Will the US strike 13 countries in 2026?PoliticsYes$576.5¢1.2¢-$46
Will the US strike 14 countries in 2026?PoliticsYes$576.5¢1.1¢-$47
Will the US strike 15 or more countries in 2026?PoliticsYes$576.5¢1.1¢-$48
Will Israel strike 8 countries in 2026?PoliticsYes$336.3¢1.3¢-$26
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?PoliticsNo$687¢91¢+$0
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?PoliticsYes$2026¢7.0¢-$15
Will Israel strike 13 countries in 2026?PoliticsYes$1216.3¢0.1¢-$118
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?TechYes$57711¢0.1¢-$575
Will Israel strike 12 countries in 2026?PoliticsYes$576.3¢0.2¢-$55
Will Israel strike 15 or more countries in 2026?PoliticsYes$336.3¢0.2¢-$32

Where the money comes from

Realized + open PnL by category · still crunching older history, totals will deepen

Politics+$59K
Tech-$585
Olympics+$284
Crypto+$225
Mentions-$177
Economy-$151
Culture-$118
Weather-$21
MLB-$20
Other sports+$8
Biggest hit
+$5.2K
Will the US strike Somalia next?
Toughest beat
-$4.7K
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?

Recent moves

  • MERGE US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$3.5K5h ago
  • Bought Yes · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$339h ago
  • Bought Yes · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$1.2K9h ago
  • Bought Yes · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$1110h ago
  • Bought Yes · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$610h ago
  • Bought Yes · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$110h ago
  • Bought Yes · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$010h ago
  • Bought No · US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$4.0K10h ago
  • Bought No · US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$11714h ago
  • Bought Yes · US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?$2615h ago
  • Bought Yes · US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?$3515h ago
  • Bought Yes · US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?$115h ago