← Whale Watch

probability

Predicting since Aug 20243,929 markets tradedPolymarket profile ↗

Down $16K on Politics markets since Aug 2024.

Right now: $80K across 2 Politics markets.

Biggest hit: +$4.5K on Will Fulham win on 2024-12-26?.

All-time PnL
+$0
This year
+$0
Last 30 days
+$0
Portfolio value
$0

Deep stats

Bucko Oracle
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Profit over time

What they are betting now

MarketSideStakeEntryNowPnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?PoliticsNo$40K50¢96¢+$37K
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?NBANo$3.5K98¢100¢+$58
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?PoliticsYes$40K50¢3.6¢-$37K
Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?PoliticsNo$2.4K69¢76¢+$227
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?Formula 1Yes$90021¢36¢+$670
Will the US federal government take a stake in Rigetti Computing, Inc.?PoliticsYes$1.6K75¢68¢-$151
Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?PoliticsYes$93131¢41¢+$300
Will the US federal government take a stake in GlobalFoundries Inc.?PoliticsYes$1.2K86¢79¢-$103
Will Richard Carapaz be awarded the Polka Dot Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?Other sportsYes$37337¢99¢+$633
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?PoliticsNo$1.4K6.9¢4.3¢-$545
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?PoliticsYes$74875¢76¢+$13
Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?NBAYes$73599¢100¢+$6
Will Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?PoliticsNo$61154¢65¢+$119
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Soccer (other)No$74260¢56¢-$40
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?Formula 1No$48173¢83¢+$65
Anysphere (Cursor) IPO before 2027?TechNo$50098¢98¢+$4
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?PoliticsYes$7186.2¢4.1¢-$247
Will the US federal government take a stake in D-Wave Quantum Inc.?PoliticsYes$45879¢71¢-$48
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Soccer (other)Yes$37924¢26¢+$17
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?Formula 1No$32473¢89¢+$70
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?PoliticsYes$38897¢89¢-$30
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?Formula 1No$25569¢85¢+$55
Will Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?PoliticsNo$28052¢53¢+$3
Will the US federal government take a stake in OpenAI?PoliticsNo$11137¢81¢+$132
Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31?PoliticsNo$80.2¢6.0¢+$234
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?Formula 1No$18746¢57¢+$46
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026?PoliticsYes$20019¢20¢+$5
Will Tadej Pogačar be awarded the Polka Dot Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?Other sportsNo$13770¢100¢+$58
Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?PoliticsYes$18129¢29¢-$1
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?TechNo$14670¢81¢+$23
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026?PoliticsYes$27858¢35¢-$111
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? PoliticsYes$53737¢12¢-$372
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?PoliticsNo$4875.1¢1.5¢-$343
Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?PoliticsYes$13314¢14¢+$5
Bank of England rate hike in 2026?EconomyYes$18653¢34¢-$65
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?Formula 1No$12239¢36¢-$9
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?Formula 1Yes$13213¢11¢-$20
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?PoliticsYes$22565¢32¢-$116
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?Formula 1No$8911¢14¢+$20
Will Geraldine Coggins win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?PoliticsYes$1851.5¢0.7¢-$96
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Soccer (other)Yes$10514¢11¢-$19
Will the US federal government take a stake in IonQ, Inc.?PoliticsYes$28972¢21¢-$205
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?PoliticsYes$32537¢9.0¢-$245
Will Angus Taylor be Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?PoliticsYes$7819¢19¢-$1
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$30343¢9.0¢-$240
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?Formula 1No$5429¢29¢-$1
Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?PoliticsYes$4920¢20¢-$1
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?PoliticsYes$230.7¢1.1¢+$13
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Formula 1Yes$363.9¢3.6¢-$2
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Formula 1Yes$2913¢15¢+$4
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?PoliticsYes$230.7¢1.1¢+$10
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?Formula 1Yes$119.9¢28¢+$19
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?PoliticsYes$230.7¢0.9¢+$7
Will Bev Craig win the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?PoliticsNo$9713¢3.5¢-$70
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?Formula 1Yes$2517¢18¢+$1
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$16740¢6.0¢-$142
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by more than 15%?PoliticsYes$2199¢98¢-$0
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?PoliticsNo$2077¢77¢+$0
Will Anthony Albanese be Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?PoliticsYes$35.9¢41¢+$16
Will Juan Ayuso win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?OtherNo$1689¢100¢+$2
T20 European Cup: Romania vs AustriaCricketAustria$1797¢100¢+$1
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election by at least 15%?PoliticsYes$314¢83¢+$14
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?Formula 1Yes$103.2¢5.3¢+$7
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?Formula 1No$1018¢26¢+$5
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?PoliticsYes$230.7¢0.4¢-$9
Will Count Binface win 30–40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?PoliticsYes$4920¢5.5¢-$35
Will Count Binface win at least 40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?PoliticsYes$4920¢4.7¢-$37
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in July?EconomyYes$2415¢7.1¢-$13
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?Formula 1No$1091¢98¢+$1
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?PoliticsYes$745¢63¢+$3
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?Formula 1Yes$103.6¢3.1¢-$1
Will Sian Astley win the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?PoliticsYes$14914¢0.8¢-$141
Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?PoliticsYes$230.7¢0.3¢-$15
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?PoliticsYes$34.7¢10¢+$4
Will Jim Chalmers be Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?PoliticsYes$35.1¢12¢+$4
Will Tadej Pogačar win the 2026 Tour De France?Other sportsNo$4353.6¢0.1¢-$429
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?PoliticsYes$230.7¢0.1¢-$18
Will Alex Padilla win the 2028 US Presidential Election?PoliticsYes$230.7¢0.1¢-$18
Will Mike Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?PoliticsYes$230.7¢0.1¢-$18
Will Tim Scott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?PoliticsYes$230.7¢0.1¢-$18
Will Abigail Spanberger win the 2028 US Presidential Election?PoliticsYes$230.7¢0.1¢-$18
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2028 US Presidential Election?PoliticsYes$230.7¢0.1¢-$18
Will Candace Owens win the 2028 US Presidential Election?PoliticsYes$230.7¢0.1¢-$18
Will Adam Schiff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?PoliticsYes$230.7¢0.1¢-$18
Will Tom Cotton win the 2028 US Presidential Election?PoliticsYes$230.7¢0.1¢-$18
Will John N. Kennedy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?PoliticsYes$230.7¢0.1¢-$18
Will Josh Stein win the 2028 US Presidential Election?PoliticsYes$230.7¢0.1¢-$18
Will Rick Scott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?PoliticsYes$230.7¢0.1¢-$18
Will Doug Burgum win the 2028 US Presidential Election?PoliticsYes$230.7¢0.1¢-$18
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Soccer (other)Yes$144.1¢1.4¢-$9
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Formula 1No$427¢31¢+$0
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?PoliticsYes$1427¢7.3¢-$10
Will Nigel Farage get second place in the Clacton by-election?PoliticsYes$21.8¢3.2¢+$2
Will Marlon Scott West win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?PoliticsYes$90.4¢0.1¢-$6
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election by 10–15%?PoliticsYes$314¢11¢-$1
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?Formula 1Yes$526¢9.0¢-$4
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?PoliticsYes$248¢50¢+$0
Will Isaac del Toro win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?OtherNo$3034¢2.0¢-$28
Will Isaac del Toro win the 2026 Tour De France?Other sportsYes$190.7¢0.1¢-$17
Los Angeles Angels vs. San Francisco GiantsMLBLos Angeles AngelsResolved$23321¢0.0¢-$233

Where the money comes from

Realized + open PnL by category · still crunching older history, totals will deepen

Politics-$16K
NFL-$10K
Premier League+$7.8K
NBA-$5.5K
UFC / MMA+$2.8K
Formula 1+$2.2K
Other sports-$1.1K
Boxing+$1.0K
Olympics+$821
MLB-$389
Tennis-$344
Champions League+$233
Biggest hit
+$4.5K
Will Fulham win on 2024-12-26?
Toughest beat
-$2.3K
Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election?

Recent moves

  • Bought No · Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?$3537m ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?$251h ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$1871h ago
  • Bought No · Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?$81h ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?$111h ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?$21h ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?$41h ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$1331h ago
  • Bought No · Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?$71h ago
  • Bought No · Will Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$2851h ago
  • Bought No · Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?$751h ago
  • Bought No · Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?$21h ago