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QuietRiskisWrong

Predicting since Feb 2026341 markets tradedPolymarket profile ↗

Up $655K on Politics markets since Feb 2026.

Right now: $642K riding on Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?.

Biggest hit: +$255K on Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?.

All-time PnL
+$0
This year
+$0
Last 30 days
+$0
Portfolio value
$0

Deep stats

Bucko Oracle
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Profit over time

What they are betting now

MarketSideStakeEntryNowPnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?PoliticsNo$642K72¢80¢+$65K
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?PoliticsNo$29K87¢94¢+$2.3K
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?FinanceNo$31K92¢82¢-$3.3K
Cuban regime falls in 2026?PoliticsNo$20K77¢86¢+$2.2K
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?PoliticsNo$8.7K67¢75¢+$1.1K
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?PoliticsYes$7.6K95¢100¢+$370
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?PoliticsNo$7.0K80¢86¢+$488
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?PoliticsYes$3.6K63¢73¢+$569
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?PoliticsNo$2.6K72¢81¢+$294
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?PoliticsYes$2.7K91¢96¢+$159
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29?PoliticsYes$1.5K91¢95¢+$67
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?PoliticsYes$1.4K71¢77¢+$109
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?PoliticsYes$46652¢61¢+$73
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 28?PoliticsYes$45692¢97¢+$24
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 30?PoliticsYes$43585¢94¢+$44
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?PoliticsNo$32969¢77¢+$36
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?PoliticsYes$29758¢63¢+$24
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?PoliticsYes$16063¢90¢+$67
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in July?FinanceYes$4093¢99¢+$2
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?PoliticsYes$4068¢69¢+$0
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?FinanceNoResolved$44K79¢0.0¢-$44K
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?FinanceNoResolved$2.3K86¢0.0¢-$2.3K
Will San Diego FC win on 2026-05-02?MLSYesResolved$40085¢0.0¢-$400
Will Mohsen Araki be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?PoliticsYesResolved$100.9¢0.0¢-$10
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?FinanceNoResolved$49963¢0.0¢-$499
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?PoliticsNoResolved$27K3.4¢0.0¢-$27K
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?PoliticsYesResolved$8.2K69¢0.0¢-$8.2K
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5NBAOverResolved$4.3K92¢0.0¢-$4.3K
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31?PoliticsNoResolved$1.8K72¢0.0¢-$1.8K
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?PoliticsNoResolved$5.0K88¢0.0¢-$5.0K
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco GiantsMLBPittsburgh PiratesResolved$9.1K88¢0.0¢-$9.1K
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?PoliticsYesResolved$15K85¢0.0¢-$15K
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?PoliticsYesResolved$9.5K83¢0.0¢-$9.5K
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?PoliticsYesResolved$1.9K58¢0.0¢-$1.9K
Iran closes its airspace by July 31?PoliticsNoResolved$18363¢0.0¢-$183
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?PoliticsYesResolved$10K79¢0.0¢-$10K
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?FinanceNoResolved$3.9K86¢0.0¢-$3.9K
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?PoliticsNoResolved$32968¢0.0¢-$329
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?PoliticsYesResolved$8.9K55¢0.0¢-$8.9K
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago CubsMLBCincinnati RedsResolved$20K93¢0.0¢-$20K
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?PoliticsNoResolved$21K34¢0.0¢-$21K
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?PoliticsNoResolved$17K80¢0.0¢-$17K

Where the money comes from

Realized + open PnL by category

Politics+$655K
World Cup-$48K
Finance-$36K
MLB+$19K
NBA-$8.0K
Tennis+$5.4K
NHL+$3.8K
Bundesliga+$1.6K
Culture+$1.4K
La Liga+$761
Champions League+$718
MLS-$400
Biggest hit
+$255K
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Toughest beat
-$49K
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?

Recent moves

  • Bought Yes · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$44916h ago
  • Sold No · Cuban regime falls in 2026?$44916h ago
  • Bought Yes · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$12117h ago
  • Bought Yes · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$29517h ago
  • Bought Yes · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$65917h ago
  • Sold Yes · Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?$1.1K17h ago
  • Bought Yes · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$46617h ago
  • Bought Yes · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$45617h ago
  • Bought Yes · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$37517h ago
  • Bought Yes · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$15217h ago
  • Sold Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?$1.4K17h ago
  • Bought Yes · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$48817h ago