← Whale Watch

PaddyAlpha

Predicting since Nov 20242,194 markets tradedPolymarket profile ↗

Up $18K on Crypto markets since Nov 2024.

Right now: $5.4K across 15 Culture markets.

Biggest hit: +$3.9K on Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1 AM ET.

All-time PnL
+$0
This year
+$0
Last 30 days
+$0
Portfolio value
$0

Deep stats

Bucko Oracle
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Profit over time

What they are betting now

MarketSideStakeEntryNowPnL
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?PoliticsNo$3.5K91¢95¢+$148
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?PoliticsNo$2.1K84¢81¢-$85
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?CultureNo$2.0K98¢98¢+$1
Will Beauty And A Beat – Justin Bieber & Nicki Minaj be the top song for 2026?CultureNo$1.6K78¢93¢+$289
Trump out as President before GTA VI?PoliticsYes$1.8K50¢50¢-$3
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?PoliticsYes$1.6K50¢51¢+$17
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?CryptoNo$1.1K71¢96¢+$403
Will Alysa Liu be the #1 searched person on Google this year?TechNo$1.4K95¢97¢+$24
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?PoliticsYes$1.2K94¢96¢+$19
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested by September 30?PoliticsNo$1.2K97¢97¢+$0
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?PoliticsNo$1.2K98¢98¢+$6
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?CryptoNo$57349¢92¢+$518
Iran leadership change by September 30?PoliticsNo$1.0K90¢89¢-$14
Will Syria recognize Israel by December 31?PoliticsNo$96988¢93¢+$48
Will Iran recognize Israel by December 31?PoliticsNo$96491¢95¢+$41
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$1.0K94¢92¢-$25
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$83774¢88¢+$148
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?PoliticsNo$98498¢98¢+$1
US strike on Mexico by December 31?PoliticsNo$76673¢88¢+$163
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by August 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$96780¢75¢-$68
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?PoliticsNo$78484¢95¢+$99
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?PoliticsYes$73463¢74¢+$125
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?PoliticsYes$77444¢48¢+$62
Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by July 31?PoliticsNo$82198¢98¢-$3
Will Dai Dai – Shakira & Burna Boy be the top song for 2026?CultureNo$65582¢100¢+$140
Another pandemic before GTA VI?PoliticsYes$79250¢50¢-$0
LA28 Olympics run as scheduled?OlympicsNo$5808.8¢12¢+$198
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Soccer (other)No$82262¢57¢-$65
Iran leadership change by December 31?PoliticsNo$72978¢80¢+$18
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?PoliticsYes$62521¢25¢+$110
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$1.2K14¢8.5¢-$452
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?PoliticsNo$64891¢97¢+$39
Will Argentina dollarize by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$16924¢96¢+$514
Will Erling Haaland be the #1 searched person on Google this year?TechNo$67490¢89¢-$9
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?PoliticsNo$58286¢92¢+$41
Will the Bayeux Tapestry be back in France by December 31, 2027?OtherYes$56682¢88¢+$40
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?CryptoYes$67873¢64¢-$85
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?PoliticsNo$56984¢84¢-$4
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?PoliticsYes$6628.2¢7.0¢-$99
Iran leadership change by December 31?PoliticsYes$61623¢21¢-$60
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$1.4K31¢13¢-$806
Will Trump post "Uranium" on Truth Social this week?MentionsNo$50270¢78¢+$52
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?PoliticsNo$52594¢95¢+$2
Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026?PoliticsNo$51088¢91¢+$17
Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026?PoliticsNo$46176¢87¢+$65
Iran Nuke before 2027?PoliticsNo$51394¢95¢+$3
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$57187¢78¢-$65
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?PoliticsYes$55414¢12¢-$55
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$48295¢99¢+$17
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?PoliticsNo$49797¢97¢-$3
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?PoliticsNo$50356¢52¢-$37
Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by July 31?PoliticsNo$45197¢99¢+$11
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?PoliticsNo$42181¢88¢+$34
US strike on Cuba by December 31?PoliticsNo$43565¢68¢+$19
Will Iran legalize gay marriage?PoliticsNo$44698¢98¢+$1
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?PoliticsNo$41297¢99¢+$9
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026?PoliticsNo$40694¢96¢+$6
Will Total Crypto Market Cap hit 2.5T in 2026?CryptoYes$39482¢85¢+$12
Betmoar FDV above $20M one day after launch?CryptoYes$39966¢67¢+$6
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$31750¢62¢+$76
Will Chase Infiniti be the #1 searched actor on Google this year?TechNo$37489¢92¢+$13
China x Japan military clash before 2027?PoliticsNo$35386¢93¢+$27
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31?PoliticsNo$37788¢87¢-$4
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$33441¢45¢+$29
Will Swim – BTS be the top song for 2026?CultureYes$2.4K40¢5.7¢-$2.1K
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?PoliticsNo$35866¢63¢-$14
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$31532¢33¢+$4
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?PoliticsYes$27233¢37¢+$35
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?PoliticsNo$26881¢93¢+$39
Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?PoliticsNo$29194¢97¢+$9
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?PoliticsYes$32121¢20¢-$24
US strike on Cuba by December 31?PoliticsYes$31836¢33¢-$27
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?PoliticsYes$21735¢45¢+$65
Iran leadership change by July 31?PoliticsNo$26193¢99¢+$15
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?PoliticsYes$23937¢43¢+$36
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?PoliticsNo$27387¢86¢-$1
US strike on Mexico by December 31?PoliticsYes$30914¢12¢-$42
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?PoliticsYes$60213¢5.5¢-$340
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?PoliticsNo$24897¢100¢+$7
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?PoliticsYes$25150¢50¢+$0
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?PoliticsYes$39834¢22¢-$149
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?PoliticsYes$42445¢27¢-$177
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$2099.8¢12¢+$37
Will "Day and Night" - Carly Rae Jepsen first week album sales be between 40k and 50k?CultureNo$22676¢83¢+$20
Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30?PoliticsYes$23680¢84¢+$10
XRP all time high by September 30, 2026?CryptoNo$24698¢98¢-$1
Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 60% or more?PoliticsYes$28744¢37¢-$44
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?PoliticsYes$27119¢17¢-$30
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$16468¢99¢+$77
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?PoliticsNo$23795¢95¢+$1
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?PoliticsNo$27367¢57¢-$40
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30?PoliticsNo$23092¢93¢+$1
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$22599¢100¢+$2
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?PoliticsYes$3528.5¢5.5¢-$125
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?PoliticsYes$14744¢68¢+$79
Will Chuck Norris be the #1 searched passing on Google this year?TechNo$22080¢81¢+$1
US takes Panama Canal before 2027?PoliticsNo$20489¢96¢+$16
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?PoliticsNo$21174¢74¢-$0
Will "Babydoll — Dominic Fike" be the top song for 2026?CultureNo$24876¢64¢-$40
XRP all time high by December 31, 2026?CryptoNo$17982¢94¢+$27

Where the money comes from

Realized + open PnL by category · still crunching older history, totals will deepen

Crypto+$18K
Politics+$16K
Mentions-$6.7K
Culture-$2.2K
Tech+$1.5K
Weather-$1.5K
World Cup-$1.5K
Other sports-$755
Finance+$329
Soccer (other)-$197
Olympics+$119
NFL+$91
Biggest hit
+$3.9K
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1 AM ET
Toughest beat
-$7.1K
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2500 on July 4?

Recent moves

  • Bought Yes · Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$03m ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$15m ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$08m ago
  • Bought Yes · Another pandemic before GTA VI?$18m ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$09m ago
  • Sold Yes · Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$110m ago
  • Sold Yes · US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?$4315m ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$016m ago
  • Bought Yes · Another pandemic before GTA VI?$218m ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$018m ago
  • Bought No · Will Trump say "Percent" 15+ times during Michigan remarks?$221m ago
  • Bought Yes · Another pandemic before GTA VI?$121m ago