← Whale Watch

Tenebrus7

Predicting since Jun 20244,295 markets tradedPolymarket profile ↗

Up $10.0K on Crypto markets since Jun 2024.

Right now: $26K across 2 Politics markets.

Biggest hit: +$12K on Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?.

All-time PnL
+$0
This year
+$0
Last 30 days
+$0
Portfolio value
$0

Deep stats

Bucko Oracle
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Profit over time

What they are betting now

MarketSideStakeEntryNowPnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?PoliticsNo$19K77¢81¢+$799
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?PoliticsNo$14K83¢95¢+$2.0K
Iran Nuke before 2027?PoliticsNo$13K90¢95¢+$662
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?PoliticsNo$8.9K92¢95¢+$232
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$8.3K90¢92¢+$160
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?PoliticsNo$6.9K68¢72¢+$357
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?PoliticsNo$6.3K85¢95¢+$710
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?PoliticsNo$5.3K90¢90¢-$2
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?WeatherNo$4.8K97¢97¢-$23
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?PoliticsYes$6.3K27¢20¢-$1.7K
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?PoliticsNo$4.7K65¢63¢-$151
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?PoliticsNo$3.3K61¢80¢+$1.0K
Iran leadership change by December 31?PoliticsNo$4.4K85¢80¢-$277
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?PoliticsYes$3.0K34¢43¢+$772
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?PoliticsNo$3.2K53¢63¢+$585
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?PoliticsNo$3.2K82¢95¢+$515
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?PoliticsNo$3.5K95¢95¢+$28
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$3.5K87¢88¢+$25
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$3.3K89¢93¢+$130
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$3.5K77¢76¢-$63
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?PoliticsNo$3.2K84¢89¢+$159
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?EconomyYes$3.2K82¢85¢+$92
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?PoliticsNo$3.0K82¢85¢+$100
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?PoliticsNo$2.8K88¢97¢+$298
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?PoliticsYes$2.9K60¢63¢+$111
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?PoliticsNo$3.0K95¢96¢+$8
Iran leadership change by July 31?PoliticsNo$2.7K95¢99¢+$121
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?PoliticsYes$2.8K56¢56¢+$24
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?PoliticsNo$2.9K58¢56¢-$95
Cuban regime falls in 2026?PoliticsNo$2.8K81¢82¢+$26
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?PoliticsNo$2.3K73¢88¢+$481
Trump out as President before 2027?PoliticsNo$2.6K91¢93¢+$43
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?PoliticsYes$2.6K99¢100¢+$26
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?PoliticsNo$2.5K65¢66¢+$2
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?PoliticsNo$2.1K76¢91¢+$389
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?PoliticsYes$2.2K78¢82¢+$119
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?PoliticsYes$2.2K93¢97¢+$113
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?PoliticsNo$2.1K92¢95¢+$64
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? CultureNo$2.0K93¢95¢+$37
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$5.0K30¢12¢-$3.1K
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?PoliticsNo$1.7K88¢98¢+$193
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? PoliticsNo$1.8K86¢90¢+$99
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$1.7K31¢33¢+$83
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$1.3K45¢61¢+$453
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?PoliticsYes$1.6K82¢87¢+$92
Will GameStop acquire eBay?FinanceNo$1.7K85¢88¢+$47
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?EconomyNo$1.7K85¢80¢-$89
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$1.5K88¢96¢+$125
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?PoliticsNo$1.5K84¢89¢+$87
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?PoliticsNo$1.4K60¢69¢+$206
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?PoliticsYes$1.4K62¢72¢+$211
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?PoliticsNo$1.4K96¢96¢-$1
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?PoliticsNo$2.1K75¢52¢-$658
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?FinanceNo$1.3K90¢97¢+$93
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Soccer (other)No$1.3K89¢89¢+$5
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?PoliticsYes$1.0K51¢67¢+$311
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$1.4K80¢76¢-$77
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$1.2K41¢44¢+$82
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?PoliticsNo$1.2K86¢92¢+$79
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison?PoliticsNo$1.1K87¢97¢+$140
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?PoliticsNo$1.3K45¢43¢-$82
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?PoliticsYes$1.3K26¢24¢-$106
Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?PoliticsNo$1.1K89¢94¢+$63
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24?PoliticsYes$1.1K94¢100¢+$64
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?PoliticsNo$1.1K63¢64¢+$12
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?PoliticsYes$1.2K87¢80¢-$91
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?EconomyNo$89878¢92¢+$161
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$91559¢65¢+$87
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?TechYes$93394¢99¢+$59
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?PoliticsYes$91369¢75¢+$72
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$89282¢88¢+$61
JD Vance out as VP by December 31?PoliticsNo$91091¢94¢+$30
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?FinanceNo$93093¢94¢+$5
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?PoliticsNo$92092¢93¢+$5
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?PoliticsNo$77469¢80¢+$113
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?PoliticsYes$1.4K20¢13¢-$528
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?PoliticsYes$1.0K63¢55¢-$136
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?EconomyYes$55345¢69¢+$281
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027?EconomyNo$64772¢90¢+$158
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?PoliticsYes$78178¢79¢+$10
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?PoliticsNo$75682¢81¢-$8
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?PoliticsYes$78239¢38¢-$35
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?PoliticsNo$70793¢97¢+$30
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?PoliticsNo$67681¢88¢+$55
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?TechYes$73482¢81¢-$9
GTA 6 launch postponed again?TechNo$72090¢90¢+$0
Will a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?PoliticsNo$66795¢97¢+$14
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?PoliticsYes$1.0K62¢41¢-$352
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?PoliticsNo$66695¢93¢-$14
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027?PoliticsNo$61587¢91¢+$26
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?PoliticsYes$3758.7¢14¢+$220
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 28?PoliticsYes$52488¢96¢+$43
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?PoliticsNo$62489¢80¢-$64
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?PoliticsNo$50885¢89¢+$21
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?PoliticsNo$34558¢88¢+$178
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?PoliticsYes$47290¢99¢+$43
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?PoliticsNo$48998¢99¢+$8
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?PoliticsNo$41082¢99¢+$86
Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?PoliticsNo$48196¢97¢+$2
Will Netanyahu wear a Yarmulke at next meeting with Trump?PoliticsNo$47896¢96¢+$3

Where the money comes from

Realized + open PnL by category · still crunching older history, totals will deepen

Crypto+$10.0K
Mentions+$9.5K
Politics-$5.5K
Olympics-$4.2K
Tech-$2.8K
Finance-$2.1K
Culture-$1.5K
Basketball (other)-$832
Other-$756
Champions League-$717
NBA+$595
Other sports-$543
Biggest hit
+$12K
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
Toughest beat
-$9.4K
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?

Recent moves

  • Sold Yes · US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?$221m ago
  • Bought No · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$952m ago
  • Sold Yes · US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?$293m ago
  • Bought No · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$03m ago
  • Bought No · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 28?$257m ago
  • Bought No · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?$37m ago
  • Bought No · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?$710m ago
  • Bought No · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?$1110m ago
  • Sold No · Iran leadership change by August 31?$96316m ago
  • Sold No · Iran leadership change by August 31?$9516m ago
  • Bought Yes · US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?$22225m ago
  • Sold Yes · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$39027m ago