 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics | No | $67 | 42¢ | 43¢ | +$0 |
| Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?Politics | Yes | $27 | 32¢ | 50¢ | +$15 |
 Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics | No | $25 | 78¢ | 81¢ | +$1 |
| US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?Politics | Yes | $10 | 25¢ | 52¢ | +$11 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Politics | No | $7 | 36¢ | 99¢ | +$13 |
 Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?Politics | No | $14 | 93¢ | 97¢ | +$1 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?Politics | No | $14 | 88¢ | 88¢ | -$0 |
 Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Tech | Yes | $43 | 0.2¢ | 0.1¢ | -$31 |
 Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?Tech | Yes | $11 | 36¢ | 34¢ | -$0 |
 US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Politics | Yes | $10 | 42¢ | 46¢ | +$1 |
| US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?Politics | No | $8 | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$1 |
| Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?Politics | Yes | $7 | 72¢ | 95¢ | +$2 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?Politics | Yes | $5 | 36¢ | 61¢ | +$3 |
 Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech | No | $7 | 88¢ | 91¢ | +$0 |
 Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?Tech | Anthropic | $7 | 87¢ | 89¢ | +$0 |
 Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Politics | No | $7 | 93¢ | 96¢ | +$0 |
 US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?Politics | No | $5 | 77¢ | 94¢ | +$1 |
| 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?Politics | Yes | $5 | 5.9¢ | 6.5¢ | +$0 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Politics | No | $3 | 45¢ | 72¢ | +$2 |
 Iran leadership change by July 31?Politics | No | $5 | 95¢ | 99¢ | +$0 |
| Will the total US effective tariff rate for Q2 be at least 7%?Politics | Yes | $5 | 71¢ | 72¢ | +$0 |
 Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech | No | $5 | 94¢ | 97¢ | +$0 |
 US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?Politics | No | $5 | 77¢ | 77¢ | -$0 |
 Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics | No | $4 | 87¢ | 92¢ | +$0 |
 Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech | No | $4 | 84¢ | 88¢ | +$0 |
 Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?Politics | Yes | $4 | 69¢ | 80¢ | +$1 |
 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $5 | 92¢ | 83¢ | -$0 |
 Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech | No | $4 | 94¢ | 94¢ | -$0 |
 Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81Crypto | Yes | $13 | 40¢ | 12¢ | -$10 |
| Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026?Tech | No | $5 | 58¢ | 45¢ | -$1 |
 NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics | No | $4 | 82¢ | 72¢ | -$1 |
| Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech | No | $4 | 71¢ | 71¢ | -$0 |
 US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Politics | Yes | $3 | 50¢ | 57¢ | +$0 |
 Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?Tech | No | $3 | 68¢ | 58¢ | -$1 |
 Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026?Crypto | No | $3 | 98¢ | 96¢ | -$0 |
| Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?Crypto | Yes | $8 | 36¢ | 12¢ | -$6 |
 Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?Tech | No | $2 | 41¢ | 51¢ | +$0 |
 Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Politics | Yes | $12 | 57¢ | 13¢ | -$9 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Politics | Yes | $1 | 16¢ | 27¢ | +$1 |
| Will SpaceX have 200 or more launches in 2026?Tech | No | $2 | 96¢ | 96¢ | -$0 |
 Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Politics | No | $2 | 90¢ | 91¢ | +$0 |
| Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech | No | $2 | 92¢ | 94¢ | +$0 |
 Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech | No | $2 | 91¢ | 92¢ | +$0 |
 Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?Tech | Yes | $2 | 85¢ | 89¢ | +$0 |
| Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?Crypto | Yes | $3 | 59¢ | 35¢ | -$1 |
 Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech | No | $2 | 92¢ | 87¢ | -$0 |
| Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?Tech | Yes | $1 | 55¢ | 74¢ | +$0 |
 Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?Politics | Yes | $2 | 6.0¢ | 4.3¢ | -$0 |
| Will Trump say "Russia" during Speech to the Nation?Mentions | NoResolved | $4 | 85¢ | 0.0¢ | -$4 |
 Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?Politics | YesResolved | $5 | 90¢ | 0.0¢ | -$5 |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?Politics | NoResolved | $0 | 18¢ | 0.0¢ | -$0 |
 Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?Politics | YesResolved | $2 | 36¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
 Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 17?Tech | YesResolved | $5 | 5.8¢ | 0.0¢ | -$5 |
 Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?Politics | YesResolved | $0 | 9.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$0 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Politics | NoResolved | $5 | 24¢ | 0.0¢ | -$5 |
 Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $51 | 14¢ | 0.0¢ | -$51 |
 Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?Tech | NoResolved | $3 | 96¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
| Will Trump say "Communist" during Speech to the Nation?Mentions | NoResolved | $2 | 29¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Politics | YesResolved | $13 | 30¢ | 0.0¢ | -$13 |
| Will 150-174 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?Politics | YesResolved | $1 | 47¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
| Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in June 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $1 | 17¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
Cashed out No · Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 23, 2026?$222d ago