← Whale Watch

ernestosparalesto

Predicting since Jun 2026207 markets tradedPolymarket profile ↗
All-time PnL
+$0
This year
+$0
Last 30 days
+$0
Portfolio value
$0

Deep stats

Bucko Oracle
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Profit over time

What they are betting now

MarketSideStakeEntryNowPnL
Will the Republican Party win the GA-07 House seat?PoliticsYes$879¢86¢+$1
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?TechYes$572¢81¢+$1
Will Eric Barlow win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election?PoliticsNo$676¢69¢-$1
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?PoliticsYes$655¢56¢+$0
Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 92m and 98m?CultureNo$581¢92¢+$1
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?PoliticsNo$568¢79¢+$1
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?PoliticsNo$576¢86¢+$1
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?PoliticsNo$548¢50¢+$0
Glean IPO before 2027?TechNo$587¢91¢+$0
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?TechNo$565¢66¢+$0
Will Bernadette Wilson advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?PoliticsYes$576¢76¢-$0
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?PoliticsNo$592¢92¢-$0
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?TechNo$583¢84¢+$0
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?PoliticsYes$570¢71¢+$0
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027?PoliticsNo$582¢86¢+$0
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?PoliticsNo$568¢69¢+$0
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C or higher on July 27?WeatherYes$584¢88¢+$0
Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?PoliticsNo$550¢50¢-$0
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?PoliticsNo$576¢76¢-$0
Will monthly inflation stay flat (0.0%) in July?EconomyNo$575¢73¢-$0
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?PoliticsNo$561¢56¢-$0
Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?PoliticsNo$559¢57¢-$0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?PoliticsNo$484¢85¢+$0
Will the Republican Party win the TN-09 House seat?PoliticsYes$484¢83¢-$0
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in July?EconomyYes$571¢67¢-$0
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?PoliticsYes$554¢40¢-$1
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?PoliticsNo$465¢64¢-$0
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?PoliticsYes$553¢32¢-$2
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?PoliticsNo$560¢33¢-$2
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?World CupYesResolved$512¢0.0¢-$5
Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?World CupNoResolved$559¢0.0¢-$5
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?World CupYesResolved$6442¢0.0¢-$64

Where the money comes from

Realized + open PnL by category

World Cup-$45
Politics-$18
Weather-$9
Tech+$4
eSports+$3
Economy+$2
Soccer (other)-$2
Culture+$2
Crypto+$1
Finance-$1
MLB+$0
Biggest hit
+$23
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?
Toughest beat
-$8
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?

Recent moves

  • Bought Yes · Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C or higher on July 27?$55h ago
  • Sold No · Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 26?$65h ago
  • Bought No · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$47h ago
  • Sold No · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$37h ago
  • Bought No · Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 26?$510h ago
  • Sold No · Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?$510h ago
  • Bought Yes · Will the Republican Party win the TN-09 House seat?$515h ago
  • Sold No · Iran full airspace closure by July 27?$515h ago
  • Sold No · Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on July 25?$120h ago
  • Bought No · Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on July 25?$523h ago
  • Sold No · Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m?$223h ago
  • Bought No · Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?$51d ago