fresh

Predicting since May 20246,201 markets tradedPolymarket profile ↗

Down $7.6K on Politics markets since May 2024.

Right now: $1.6K riding on Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?.

Biggest hit: +$2.1K on Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?.

All-time PnL

+$0

This year

+$0

Last 30 days

+$0

Portfolio value

Deep stats

Bucko Oracle

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Profit over time

What they are betting now

Market	Side	Stake	Entry	Now	PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics	Yes	$1.6K	65¢	21¢	-$1.1K
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 2m barrels per day in 2026?Politics	No	$66	98¢	97¢	-$1
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 270M by September 25, 2026?Politics	No	$50	80¢	99¢	+$12
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by October 30, 2026?Politics	Yes	$35	49¢	68¢	+$13
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.7m barrels per day in 2026?Politics	No	$45	97¢	97¢	-$0
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics	No	$40	67¢	71¢	+$2
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 270M by October 30, 2026?Politics	Yes	$36	38¢	33¢	-$5
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.5m barrels per day in 2026?Politics	No	$29	97¢	91¢	-$2
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics	Yes	$38	19¢	13¢	-$13
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Politics	Yes	$24	48¢	46¢	-$1
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.4m barrels per day in 2026?Politics	No	$19	96¢	94¢	-$0
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Politics	No	$14	72¢	94¢	+$4
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Politics	No	$16	79¢	84¢	+$1
0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by December 31?Politics	No	$17	86¢	83¢	-$1
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics	No	$10	57¢	94¢	+$6
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Politics	No	$11	53¢	78¢	+$5
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics	No	$14	68¢	71¢	+$1
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?Politics	No	$10	75¢	91¢	+$2
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?Politics	No	$10	72¢	84¢	+$2
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.32% in September?Economy	No	$10	99¢	99¢	+$0
Amazon 2026 capex above $170B?Tech	Yes	$10	98¢	99¢	+$0
0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by September 30?Politics	No	$10	99¢	99¢	+$0
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?Politics	No	$7	70¢	99¢	+$3
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.43% in September?Economy	No	$10	99¢	98¢	-$0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Politics	No	$8	75¢	96¢	+$2
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics	No	$6	59¢	73¢	+$1
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?Politics	Yes	$8	84¢	72¢	-$1
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by September 25, 2026?Politics	Yes	$92	28¢	2.0¢	-$86
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Politics	No	$3	33¢	42¢	+$1
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Politics	Yes	$344	43¢	0.4¢	-$340
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Politics	Yes	$14	47¢	12¢	-$11
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics	Yes	$1	9.0¢	19¢	+$1
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Politics	Yes	$6	55¢	19¢	-$4
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Politics	Yes	$5	48¢	17¢	-$3
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousePolitics	Yes	$1	38¢	62¢	+$1
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Politics	Yes	$5	52¢	16¢	-$4
US recession by end of 2026?Economy	Yes	$5	31¢	9.5¢	-$3
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Politics	Yes	$6	57¢	15¢	-$4
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics	Yes	$10	70¢	11¢	-$9
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Politics	Yes	$3	29¢	14¢	-$2
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Politics	Yes	$6	62¢	12¢	-$5
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics	Yes	$2	28¢	15¢	-$1
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics	Yes	$1	5.9¢	6.2¢	+$0
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in September?Economy	YesResolved	$1	1.4¢	0.0¢	-$1

Where the money comes from

Realized + open PnL by category

Politics-$7.6K

Crypto-$2.5K

Economy-$2.0K

Finance+$1.3K

World Cup-$653

Mentions-$79

Tech+$50

Tennis-$32

Culture-$29

Champions League-$24

Formula 1-$21

Weather-$9

Biggest hit

+$2.1K

Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?

Toughest beat

-$11K

Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?

Recent moves

MERGE Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in September?$251d ago
Bought No · Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in September?$201d ago
Bought No · Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in September?$51d ago
Bought Yes · Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in September?$11d ago
Bought Yes · Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in September?$01d ago
Bought Yes · Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in September?$01d ago
Bought Yes · Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in September?$01d ago
Bought Yes · Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in September?$01d ago
Bought Yes · Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in September?$11d ago
Cashed out Yes · Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.17% in September?$11d ago
Cashed out Yes · Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.45% in September?$11d ago
Cashed out Yes · Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.15% in September?$11d ago