Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $819 | 78¢ | 83¢ | +$50 |
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $201 | 26¢ | 54¢ | +$211 |
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?Economy | Yes | $256 | 59¢ | 80¢ | +$86 |
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $467 | 61¢ | 42¢ | -$147 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $195 | 59¢ | 56¢ | -$10 |
| Will voter turnout be between 60% and 70% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?Politics | Yes | $110 | 24¢ | 39¢ | +$72 |
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $184 | 17¢ | 17¢ | -$3 |
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?Tech | Yes | $98 | 51¢ | 81¢ | +$57 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $67 | 20¢ | 30¢ | +$31 |
| Will voter turnout be between 70% and 80% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?Politics | Yes | $85 | 18¢ | 20¢ | +$5 |
| Will voter turnout be between 50% and 60% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?Politics | Yes | $150 | 32¢ | 19¢ | -$64 |
Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?Weather | Yes | $56 | 37¢ | 47¢ | +$15 |
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting?Economy | Yes | $141 | 33¢ | 16¢ | -$72 |
| Will voter turnout be less than 50% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?Politics | Yes | $59 | 13¢ | 13¢ | +$1 |
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after July 2026 meeting?Economy | Yes | $46 | 92¢ | 98¢ | +$3 |
| Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by less than 5%?Politics | Yes | $5 | 11¢ | 100¢ | +$40 |
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?Crypto | Yes | $34 | 49¢ | 64¢ | +$10 |
Will 1250 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?Weather | Yes | $26 | 59¢ | 89¢ | +$13 |
Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?Weather | Yes | $26 | 18¢ | 27¢ | +$13 |
| Will voter turnout be at least 80% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?Politics | Yes | $42 | 9.0¢ | 7.5¢ | -$7 |
Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?Weather | Yes | $40 | 27¢ | 21¢ | -$9 |
Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?Economy | Yes | $6 | 7.8¢ | 40¢ | +$24 |
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $26 | 88¢ | 99¢ | +$3 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $36 | 11¢ | 8.5¢ | -$8 |
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $32 | 4.2¢ | 3.6¢ | -$4 |
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2026?Politics | Yes | $24 | 69¢ | 79¢ | +$3 |
Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Politics | Yes | $36 | 34¢ | 26¢ | -$9 |
Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 30% and 34.9%?Politics | Yes | $21 | 32¢ | 42¢ | +$6 |
Will US GDP growth in 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?Economy | Yes | $9 | 11¢ | 33¢ | +$18 |
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?Politics | Yes | $20 | 21¢ | 28¢ | +$6 |
Will United Russia win between 310 and 324 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Politics | Yes | $13 | 12¢ | 23¢ | +$11 |
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?Politics | Yes | $13 | 14¢ | 26¢ | +$11 |
Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Politics | Yes | $30 | 29¢ | 23¢ | -$6 |
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?Politics | Yes | $28 | 30¢ | 25¢ | -$4 |
Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 25% and 29.9%?Politics | Yes | $14 | 22¢ | 36¢ | +$9 |
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?Politics | Yes | $20 | 37¢ | 34¢ | -$2 |
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Politics | Yes | $11 | 10¢ | 16¢ | +$5 |
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison?Politics | Yes | $14 | 25¢ | 30¢ | +$2 |
Will the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be between 36 and 39 inclusive?Politics | Yes | $18 | 71¢ | 63¢ | -$2 |
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%?Politics | Yes | $14 | 36¢ | 39¢ | +$1 |
Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics | Yes | $13 | 29¢ | 34¢ | +$2 |
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $29 | 3.8¢ | 2.0¢ | -$14 |
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?Tech | Yes | $25 | 13¢ | 8.0¢ | -$10 |
Will there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?Weather | Yes | $9 | 6.1¢ | 10.0¢ | +$6 |
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?Weather | Yes | $23 | 35¢ | 23¢ | -$8 |
Will the Labour Party win 40-44 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?Politics | Yes | $11 | 24¢ | 31¢ | +$3 |
Will the Labour Party win 35-39 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?Politics | Yes | $4 | 8.9¢ | 31¢ | +$10 |
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026?Crypto | Yes | $19 | 30¢ | 21¢ | -$6 |
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics | Yes | $8 | 19¢ | 28¢ | +$4 |
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?Politics | Yes | $8 | 8.7¢ | 13¢ | +$4 |
Will no one dissent the July Fed decision?Economy | Yes | $26 | 57¢ | 27¢ | -$14 |
Will US GDP growth in 2026 be greater than 2.5%?Economy | Yes | $51 | 64¢ | 15¢ | -$39 |
Will two people dissent the July Fed decision?Economy | Yes | $4 | 9.9¢ | 26¢ | +$7 |
Will one person dissent the July Fed decision?Economy | Yes | $8 | 19¢ | 26¢ | +$3 |
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?Crypto | Yes | $11 | 16¢ | 16¢ | +$0 |
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the August meeting?Economy | Yes | $13 | 3.0¢ | 2.5¢ | -$2 |
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.50% and 4.99%?Politics | Yes | $11 | 29¢ | 26¢ | -$1 |
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.2m & 4.4m square kilometers?Weather | Yes | $12 | 19¢ | 16¢ | -$2 |
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.4m & 4.6m square kilometers?Weather | Yes | $5 | 7.1¢ | 16¢ | +$6 |
| Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by more than 10%?Politics | Yes | $4 | 8.1¢ | 23¢ | +$6 |
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the August 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $13 | 88¢ | 67¢ | -$3 |
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics | Yes | $9 | 20¢ | 22¢ | +$1 |
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.0m & 4.2m square kilometers?Weather | Yes | $14 | 21¢ | 15¢ | -$4 |
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.6m & 4.8m square kilometers?Weather | Yes | $3 | 5.1¢ | 15¢ | +$6 |
Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 7?Politics | Yes | $13 | 63¢ | 45¢ | -$4 |
Will the Labour Party win 45-49 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?Politics | Yes | $19 | 42¢ | 20¢ | -$10 |
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $10 | 1.3¢ | 1.1¢ | -$1 |
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?Economy | Yes | $4 | 14¢ | 35¢ | +$5 |
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?Tech | Yes | $14 | 7.4¢ | 4.6¢ | -$5 |
Will United Russia win between 295 and 309 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Politics | Yes | $5 | 4.7¢ | 7.5¢ | +$3 |
Will Jack Doherty be sentenced to no prison time?Culture | Yes | $8 | 83¢ | 79¢ | -$0 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $8 | 2.5¢ | 2.3¢ | -$1 |
Will voter turnout be between 53% and 56% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?Politics | Yes | $5 | 19¢ | 29¢ | +$3 |
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?Economy | Yes | $5 | 20¢ | 28¢ | +$2 |
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $4 | 0.4¢ | 0.7¢ | +$3 |
Will three people dissent the July Fed decision?Economy | Yes | $3 | 7.3¢ | 14¢ | +$3 |
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 40 and 60 years in prison?Politics | Yes | $4 | 7.6¢ | 12¢ | +$2 |
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics | Yes | $8 | 17¢ | 14¢ | -$1 |
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be 1600.00 or higher at the end of December 2026?Politics | Yes | $7 | 70¢ | 57¢ | -$1 |
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?Tech | Yes | $18 | 9.7¢ | 2.9¢ | -$13 |
Will US GDP growth in 2026 be less than 0.5%?Economy | Yes | $4 | 4.4¢ | 6.8¢ | +$2 |
Will the National Party win 35-39 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?Politics | Yes | $4 | 26¢ | 36¢ | +$1 |
Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 11?Politics | Yes | $1 | 6.9¢ | 26¢ | +$4 |
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in prison?Politics | Yes | $5 | 9.7¢ | 9.0¢ | -$0 |
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?Politics | Yes | $8 | 8.2¢ | 5.2¢ | -$3 |
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.50% and 5.99%?Politics | Yes | $4 | 9.5¢ | 12¢ | +$1 |
Will the National Party win 40-44 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?Politics | Yes | $5 | 30¢ | 33¢ | +$0 |
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $13 | 1.3¢ | 0.4¢ | -$9 |
Will voter turnout be between 50% and 53% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?Politics | Yes | $5 | 20¢ | 19¢ | -$0 |
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?Economy | Yes | $5 | 21¢ | 18¢ | -$1 |
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 20 and 40 years in prison?Politics | Yes | $7 | 13¢ | 8.0¢ | -$3 |
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?Tech | Yes | $4 | 38¢ | 43¢ | +$1 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $4 | 1.1¢ | 1.3¢ | +$0 |
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $1 | 6.7¢ | 26¢ | +$3 |
Will the National Party win 30-34 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?Politics | Yes | $2 | 10¢ | 25¢ | +$2 |
Will four or more people dissent the July Fed decision?Economy | Yes | $1 | 2.5¢ | 8.1¢ | +$3 |
Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?Politics | Yes | $4 | 18¢ | 13¢ | -$1 |
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?Tech | Yes | $12 | 6.2¢ | 1.7¢ | -$9 |
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 22 or 23 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?Politics | Yes | $3 | 26¢ | 32¢ | +$1 |
Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 35% and 39.9%?Politics | Yes | $5 | 8.0¢ | 4.8¢ | -$2 |