 Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics | No | $20K | 50¢ | 92¢ | +$17K |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics | No | $15K | 36¢ | 81¢ | +$18K |
 Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?Tech | Yes | $7.5K | 89¢ | 91¢ | +$159 |
 Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics | No | $3.7K | 75¢ | 84¢ | +$428 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics | Yes | $20K | 50¢ | 7.6¢ | -$17K |
 NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics | No | $1.9K | 74¢ | 81¢ | +$179 |
 Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?Politics | No | $1.8K | 88¢ | 98¢ | +$208 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Politics | No | $1.5K | 68¢ | 87¢ | +$411 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Politics | No | $1.3K | 74¢ | 91¢ | +$295 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Politics | No | $1.3K | 83¢ | 87¢ | +$56 |
 Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech | No | $1.2K | 69¢ | 71¢ | +$39 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?Politics | No | $960 | 85¢ | 95¢ | +$102 |
 Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech | No | $1.0K | 95¢ | 97¢ | +$26 |
 Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics | No | $1.0K | 84¢ | 86¢ | +$18 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Politics | No | $416 | 42¢ | 98¢ | +$555 |
 Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Politics | No | $830 | 83¢ | 97¢ | +$139 |
 Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics | No | $780 | 75¢ | 93¢ | +$188 |
| Iran leadership change by November 30?Politics | No | $956 | 91¢ | 91¢ | +$0 |
 US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics | No | $548 | 37¢ | 63¢ | +$393 |
 Will Microsoft have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech | No | $782 | 93¢ | 96¢ | +$21 |
 Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech | No | $693 | 93¢ | 98¢ | +$31 |
 Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?Crypto | Yes | $736 | 36¢ | 34¢ | -$37 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Politics | No | $328 | 41¢ | 78¢ | +$292 |
 Will GameStop acquire eBay?Finance | No | $619 | 93¢ | 92¢ | -$10 |
 Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Tech | No | $358 | 60¢ | 96¢ | +$220 |
| Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?Crypto | Yes | $361 | 53¢ | 82¢ | +$194 |
 Will Alina Habba be the next White House Press Secretary?Politics | No | $529 | 88¢ | 91¢ | +$20 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Politics | No | $303 | 20¢ | 34¢ | +$213 |
 Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?Tech | Yes | $802 | 19¢ | 12¢ | -$314 |
 Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?Tech | Anthropic | $390 | 78¢ | 94¢ | +$79 |
 Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?Politics | No | $404 | 84¢ | 90¢ | +$29 |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Politics | No | $414 | 91¢ | 92¢ | +$4 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech | No | $392 | 87¢ | 88¢ | +$5 |
 Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81Crypto | Yes | $2.2K | 47¢ | 8.5¢ | -$1.8K |
 Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Politics | No | $367 | 88¢ | 95¢ | +$27 |
| Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13?Politics | No | $390 | 92¢ | 93¢ | +$3 |
 Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026?Crypto | No | $352 | 88¢ | 96¢ | +$33 |
 Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?Politics | No | $360 | 86¢ | 92¢ | +$23 |
 Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech | No | $361 | 84¢ | 88¢ | +$16 |
| Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13?Politics | No | $361 | 86¢ | 89¢ | +$11 |
 Will a hurricane make landfall in New York by November 30, 2026?Weather | No | $304 | 95¢ | 97¢ | +$6 |
 Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?Tech | Yes | $268 | 67¢ | 75¢ | +$30 |
| Will a hurricane make landfall in Connecticut by November 30, 2026?Weather | No | $257 | 95¢ | 97¢ | +$6 |
| Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13?Politics | No | $252 | 70¢ | 73¢ | +$9 |
 Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech | No | $239 | 89¢ | 95¢ | +$16 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?Tech | No | $335 | 66¢ | 47¢ | -$100 |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31?Tech | Yes | $221 | 96¢ | 96¢ | +$1 |
 Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?Politics | Yes | $225 | 25¢ | 25¢ | -$9 |
 Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Politics | Yes | $208 | 26¢ | 26¢ | +$0 |
 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?Finance | Yes | $227 | 76¢ | 63¢ | -$39 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in September?Finance | Yes | $215 | 43¢ | 37¢ | -$32 |
| Will SpaceX have 200 or more launches in 2026?Tech | No | $113 | 91¢ | 98¢ | +$9 |
 Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?Tech | No | $60 | 40¢ | 80¢ | +$59 |
 Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech | No | $91 | 91¢ | 92¢ | +$1 |
 Will Kaelan Dorr be the next White House Press Secretary?Politics | No | $84 | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$5 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?Finance | Yes | $100 | 20¢ | 17¢ | -$18 |
| Will SpaceX have 15+ launches in September 2026?Tech | No | $66 | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$6 |
| Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026?Tech | No | $184 | 54¢ | 21¢ | -$112 |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?Politics | Yes | $75 | 13¢ | 12¢ | -$9 |
| Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13?Politics | Yes | $34 | 9.6¢ | 18¢ | +$31 |
 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Politics | Yes | $60 | 15¢ | 13¢ | -$10 |
| Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13?Politics | Yes | $38 | 24¢ | 27¢ | +$5 |
| Will 40 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13?Politics | Yes | $44 | 6.8¢ | 5.0¢ | -$12 |
 US strike on Cuba by December 31?Politics | Yes | $25 | 17¢ | 14¢ | -$5 |
 Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech | No | $18 | 91¢ | 93¢ | +$0 |
| Will a hurricane make landfall in Louisiana by November 30, 2026?Weather | Yes | $11 | 11¢ | 14¢ | +$4 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Politics | Yes | $108 | 54¢ | 6.5¢ | -$95 |
| Will a hurricane make landfall in Florida by November 30, 2026?Weather | No | $3 | 73¢ | 79¢ | +$0 |
 Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech | Yes | $4 | 14¢ | 9.5¢ | -$1 |
Cashed out No · Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1510?$5005h ago