 Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics | No | $25K | 50¢ | 87¢ | +$19K |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics | No | $5.3K | 24¢ | 42¢ | +$3.8K |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics | Yes | $25K | 50¢ | 13¢ | -$19K |
 Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics | No | $3.7K | 75¢ | 80¢ | +$228 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Politics | No | $1.8K | 60¢ | 99¢ | +$1.2K |
| Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?Politics | Yes | $1.4K | 25¢ | 52¢ | +$1.5K |
 Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?Politics | No | $1.8K | 88¢ | 97¢ | +$181 |
 Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?Tech | Yes | $841 | 19¢ | 34¢ | +$675 |
| Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?Politics | Yes | $263 | 19¢ | 95¢ | +$1.0K |
| 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?Politics | Yes | $795 | 7.4¢ | 9.8¢ | +$250 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?Politics | No | $960 | 85¢ | 89¢ | +$34 |
 Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics | No | $780 | 75¢ | 92¢ | +$177 |
 Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Politics | No | $830 | 83¢ | 96¢ | +$127 |
 US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Politics | Yes | $864 | 42¢ | 46¢ | +$65 |
| Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?Politics | No | $766 | 85¢ | 99¢ | +$123 |
 US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?Politics | No | $616 | 77¢ | 94¢ | +$132 |
| US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?Politics | No | $633 | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$109 |
 US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Politics | Yes | $674 | 52¢ | 56¢ | +$61 |
 Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?Politics | Yes | $600 | 67¢ | 80¢ | +$110 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Politics | No | $416 | 42¢ | 72¢ | +$292 |
 US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?Politics | No | $604 | 75¢ | 78¢ | +$16 |
 Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech | No | $556 | 93¢ | 97¢ | +$22 |
 Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81Crypto | Yes | $2.2K | 47¢ | 12¢ | -$1.6K |
 Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech | No | $498 | 70¢ | 71¢ | +$4 |
 Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech | No | $485 | 93¢ | 94¢ | +$5 |
 Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Tech | No | $358 | 60¢ | 81¢ | +$131 |
 Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?Tech | Anthropic | $390 | 78¢ | 89¢ | +$55 |
| US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?Politics | Yes | $230 | 26¢ | 49¢ | +$211 |
 Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?Politics | No | $396 | 95¢ | 99¢ | +$18 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech | No | $392 | 87¢ | 91¢ | +$16 |
 Iran leadership change by July 31?Politics | No | $378 | 95¢ | 99¢ | +$16 |
 Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026?Crypto | No | $352 | 88¢ | 96¢ | +$32 |
 Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Politics | No | $367 | 88¢ | 91¢ | +$10 |
 Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech | No | $361 | 84¢ | 88¢ | +$16 |
 NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics | No | $405 | 81¢ | 73¢ | -$42 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?Politics | Yes | $180 | 36¢ | 61¢ | +$125 |
 Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?Tech | No | $335 | 66¢ | 58¢ | -$42 |
| Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?Crypto | Yes | $736 | 36¢ | 12¢ | -$489 |
| Will the total US effective tariff rate for Q2 be at least 7%?Politics | Yes | $220 | 64¢ | 72¢ | +$26 |
| Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?Crypto | Yes | $361 | 53¢ | 35¢ | -$123 |
 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $204 | 92¢ | 83¢ | -$19 |
| Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026?Tech | No | $184 | 54¢ | 45¢ | -$34 |
 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Politics | Yes | $60 | 15¢ | 30¢ | +$60 |
| Will SpaceX have 200 or more launches in 2026?Tech | No | $113 | 91¢ | 96¢ | +$6 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Politics | Yes | $151 | 20¢ | 16¢ | -$34 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Politics | Yes | $206 | 17¢ | 8.5¢ | -$101 |
 Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech | No | $91 | 91¢ | 87¢ | -$4 |
 Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?Tech | No | $60 | 40¢ | 53¢ | +$19 |
 Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech | No | $77 | 90¢ | 92¢ | +$2 |
 AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?Tech | Yes | $67 | 87¢ | 85¢ | -$2 |
 Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?Politics | Yes | $75 | 5.0¢ | 4.3¢ | -$11 |
 Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?Tech | Yes | $54 | 84¢ | 89¢ | +$3 |
| Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?Politics | Yes | $115 | 24¢ | 10¢ | -$67 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Politics | Yes | $108 | 54¢ | 13¢ | -$83 |
| Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?Politics | Yes | $171 | 99¢ | 14¢ | -$147 |
| Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech | No | $18 | 91¢ | 94¢ | +$0 |
 Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Tech | Yes | $28 | 0.2¢ | 0.1¢ | -$21 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Tech | Yes | $119 | 3.0¢ | 0.1¢ | -$113 |
| Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?Tech | Yes | $3 | 56¢ | 74¢ | +$1 |
 Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Tech | Yes | $628 | 8.4¢ | 0.1¢ | -$624 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech | Yes | $4 | 14¢ | 11¢ | -$1 |
 Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?Politics | YesResolved | $15 | 89¢ | 0.0¢ | -$15 |
 Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 17?Tech | YesResolved | $48 | 3.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$48 |
 Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?Politics | YesResolved | $16 | 8.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$16 |
| Will 150-174 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?Politics | YesResolved | $60 | 30¢ | 0.0¢ | -$60 |
