 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $25K | 84¢ | 82¢ | -$539 |
 Fed rate hike in 2026?Economy | Yes | $17K | 57¢ | 69¢ | +$3.4K |
 Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Politics | No | $6.9K | 69¢ | 94¢ | +$2.4K |
 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy | Yes | $7.9K | 79¢ | 85¢ | +$552 |
| Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?Other | Yes | $6.9K | 86¢ | 87¢ | +$61 |
 Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?Politics | No | $6.6K | 95¢ | 96¢ | +$87 |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 31?Politics | No | $5.5K | 61¢ | 69¢ | +$721 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?Politics | Yes | $4.0K | 40¢ | 62¢ | +$2.2K |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Politics | No | $5.0K | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$4 |
 Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?Politics | No | $4.1K | 82¢ | 86¢ | +$175 |
 Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Politics | No | $3.5K | 68¢ | 74¢ | +$327 |
 Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?Politics | No | $3.5K | 94¢ | 99¢ | +$194 |
 NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics | No | $3.8K | 76¢ | 71¢ | -$265 |
 Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Politics | No | $3.0K | 86¢ | 99¢ | +$448 |
 US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?Politics | No | $3.6K | 87¢ | 78¢ | -$384 |
 Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?Politics | No | $2.3K | 50¢ | 64¢ | +$646 |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Politics | Yes | $2.5K | 13¢ | 14¢ | +$350 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?Politics | No | $3.2K | 64¢ | 56¢ | -$400 |
 Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by July 31?Politics | No | $2.7K | 97¢ | 99¢ | +$43 |
 Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?Politics | Yes | $2.3K | 92¢ | 96¢ | +$81 |
 Iran coup attempt by December 31?Politics | Yes | $2.4K | 13¢ | 13¢ | -$136 |
| Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Politics | No | $2.1K | 99¢ | 99¢ | -$4 |
 IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31?Politics | No | $1.7K | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$177 |
 Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?Politics | Yes | $1.7K | 57¢ | 61¢ | +$115 |
 Nothing Ever Happens: JulyPolitics | Nothing | $1.7K | 85¢ | 82¢ | -$57 |
| US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?Politics | No | $1.3K | 76¢ | 90¢ | +$237 |
 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousePolitics | Yes | $1.5K | 42¢ | 44¢ | +$53 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Politics | No | $2.2K | 56¢ | 38¢ | -$716 |
 China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Politics | No | $1.5K | 74¢ | 74¢ | -$16 |
 US strike on Cuba by December 31?Politics | No | $1.3K | 65¢ | 68¢ | +$49 |
| Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Politics | No | $1.2K | 97¢ | 99¢ | +$26 |
 Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?Politics | Yes | $3.2K | 18¢ | 7.0¢ | -$1.9K |
 Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Politics | Yes | $1.0K | 20¢ | 22¢ | +$78 |
| 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?Politics | No | $792 | 79¢ | 94¢ | +$145 |
 US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Politics | Yes | $904 | 45¢ | 46¢ | +$6 |
 Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics | Yes | $764 | 76¢ | 79¢ | +$28 |
 US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?Politics | Yes | $1.3K | 13¢ | 6.5¢ | -$670 |
| Israel military action against Greater Beirut by July 31?Politics | No | $619 | 88¢ | 92¢ | +$25 |
| Will Ahmad Vahidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Politics | No | $592 | 93¢ | 96¢ | +$20 |
 UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?Politics | Yes | $510 | 25¢ | 31¢ | +$100 |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?Politics | Yes | $653 | 3.4¢ | 3.0¢ | -$74 |
 Romanian PM Bolojan out by July 31?Politics | No | $432 | 74¢ | 99¢ | +$144 |
| Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?Politics | No | $600 | 30¢ | 24¢ | -$130 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Politics | Yes | $356 | 36¢ | 43¢ | +$73 |
 Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics | No | $440 | 44¢ | 38¢ | -$65 |
| Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Politics | No | $254 | 82¢ | 96¢ | +$43 |
 Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Politics | Yes | $262 | 87¢ | 94¢ | +$19 |
 U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?Politics | No | $216 | 73¢ | 90¢ | +$52 |
| Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?Politics | No | $1.6K | 40¢ | 5.1¢ | -$1.4K |
| Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?Politics | Yes | $930 | 19¢ | 4.1¢ | -$725 |
| Israel military action against Yemen by July 31?Politics | No | $170 | 85¢ | 96¢ | +$22 |
 Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?Politics | No | $166 | 96¢ | 99¢ | +$5 |
 Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Politics | Yes | $174 | 24¢ | 21¢ | -$23 |
 Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?Politics | Yes | $50 | 10¢ | 10¢ | -$1 |
 Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?Politics | No | $240 | 12¢ | 2.3¢ | -$195 |
| Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Politics | No | $36 | 89¢ | 99¢ | +$4 |
| Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?Politics | Yes | $125 | 1.8¢ | 0.5¢ | -$91 |
| Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?Politics | Yes | $81 | 1.7¢ | 0.4¢ | -$62 |
 Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Politics | Yes | $15 | 23¢ | 24¢ | +$0 |
| Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?Politics | Yes | $6 | 0.4¢ | 0.6¢ | +$3 |
 Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?NBA | Yes | $2.0K | 50¢ | 0.1¢ | -$2.0K |
Sold Yes · Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$4022m ago