← Whale Watch

TradeDeficitArchitect

Predicting since Oct 20202,228 markets tradedPolymarket profile ↗

Up $67K on Politics markets since Oct 2020.

Right now: $63K across 4 Politics markets.

Biggest hit: +$14K on Will Donald Trump say "border" 15 or more times during his Michigan town hall?.

All-time PnL
+$0
This year
+$0
Last 30 days
+$0
Portfolio value
$0

Deep stats

Bucko Oracle
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Profit over time

What they are betting now

MarketSideStakeEntryNowPnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?PoliticsNo$28K50¢87¢+$21K
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePoliticsNo$17K84¢87¢+$550
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?PoliticsNo$11K83¢95¢+$1.5K
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?PoliticsNo$7.4K87¢88¢+$15
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?PoliticsYes$27K50¢13¢-$21K
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?PoliticsNo$6.1K77¢81¢+$300
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?PoliticsNo$4.8K68¢92¢+$1.6K
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?PoliticsNo$5.7K91¢94¢+$162
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?CryptoNo$5.0K70¢75¢+$306
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?PoliticsNo$5.3K83¢73¢-$640
Trump out as President before 2027?PoliticsNo$4.2K85¢94¢+$425
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?PoliticsYes$3.9K69¢56¢-$708
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?PoliticsYes$2.9K67¢64¢-$161
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?PoliticsNo$2.3K92¢96¢+$114
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?PoliticsNo$2.3K93¢96¢+$76
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?CryptoNo$2.2K48¢51¢+$99
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?PoliticsNo$1.9K97¢97¢+$2
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?PoliticsYes$5014.4¢16¢+$1.3K
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?PoliticsNoResolved$1.5K85¢100¢+$269
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?PoliticsNo$1.9K38¢34¢-$157
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?CryptoNo$1.4K80¢89¢+$150
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?PoliticsYes$2.1K28¢20¢-$625
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?PoliticsNo$1.2K61¢66¢+$82
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?PoliticsYes$1.5K75¢56¢-$370
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?PoliticsNo$1.0K89¢97¢+$95
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?PoliticsNo$71677¢95¢+$172
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?PoliticsNo$96048¢38¢-$210
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?PoliticsYes$29134¢79¢+$395
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?PoliticsYes$64888¢93¢+$33
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?PoliticsNo$2.3K61¢18¢-$1.6K
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?CryptoNo$46661¢83¢+$164
Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027?PoliticsNo$46880¢91¢+$62
Will Jared Polis announce a Presidential run before 2027?PoliticsNo$47691¢96¢+$23
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?PoliticsNo$33581¢96¢+$64
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?PoliticsYes$6043.1¢1.8¢-$249
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?PoliticsYes$32572¢56¢-$71
Will Jerri Green win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Democratic primary election?PoliticsYes$13963¢94¢+$68
Will the Republican Party win the TX-15 House seat?PoliticsNo$17651¢51¢-$3
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?PoliticsYes$2611.8¢1.1¢-$94
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?PoliticsNo$18377¢69¢-$18
Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?PoliticsNo$17963¢56¢-$18
Will Karrin Taylor Robson win the 2026 Arizona Governor Republican primary election?PoliticsNoResolved$15599¢100¢+$2
Will Tom Brady announce a presidential run before 2027?PoliticsNo$14690¢96¢+$9
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?PoliticsYes$9683¢97¢+$17
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?PoliticsYes$1910.9¢0.5¢-$78
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?WeatherNo$5252¢100¢+$48
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?PoliticsYes$9314¢14¢+$3
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship?NFLNo$8787¢94¢+$6
Will Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?PoliticsYes$15411¢6.6¢-$62
Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026?PoliticsYes$5467¢84¢+$14
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?PoliticsNo$4747¢67¢+$20
Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?PoliticsYes$5569¢78¢+$7
Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2027?PoliticsNo$5690¢96¢+$4
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-15 House seat?PoliticsYes$5550¢48¢-$3
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?PoliticsYes$744.0¢2.4¢-$31
Will Bernie endorse Dan Osborn for NE-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?PoliticsNo$4858¢52¢-$5
Will Andrew Yang announce a Presidential run before 2027?PoliticsNo$2791¢98¢+$2
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026?PoliticsNo$963¢80¢+$2
Will December be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?CryptoNo$878¢80¢+$0
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?PoliticsYesResolved$583¢100¢+$1
Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026?PoliticsYes$724¢16¢-$3
Will April be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?CryptoYes$17.0¢10¢+$1
2026 Balance of Power: OtherPoliticsYes$10.4¢0.5¢+$0
Will Jasmine Crockett and Wesley Hunt be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?PoliticsYesResolved-$0-0.2¢0.0¢+$0
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?PoliticsYesResolved$34042¢0.0¢-$340
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?PoliticsYesResolved$8541¢0.0¢-$85
Will James Talarico and Wesley Hunt be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?PoliticsYesResolved-$0-0.2¢0.0¢+$0
First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election?PoliticsYesResolved$43.8¢0.0¢-$4
Will Jasmine Crockett and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?PoliticsYesResolved$20.2¢0.0¢-$2
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?PoliticsNoResolved$4242¢0.0¢-$42
Will Jo Rae Perkins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?PoliticsYesResolved$660¢0.0¢-$6
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?PoliticsNoResolved$5062¢0.0¢-$50
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$24012¢0.0¢-$240
Will 50 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?PoliticsYesResolved$2020¢0.0¢-$20
Will two candidates other than the listed pairs be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?PoliticsYesResolved-$0-0.2¢0.0¢+$0
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?PoliticsYesResolved$79858¢0.0¢-$798

Where the money comes from

Realized + open PnL by category · still crunching older history, totals will deepen

Politics+$67K
Mentions+$60K
Other-$19K
Economy-$3.6K
Crypto-$3.6K
Weather+$2.6K
eSports+$1.5K
Other sports+$1.5K
Culture-$1.4K
Tech-$413
Olympics-$393
Boxing+$352
Biggest hit
+$14K
Will Donald Trump say "border" 15 or more times during his Michigan town hall?
Toughest beat
-$13K
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?

Recent moves

  • Bought No · Will Jared Polis announce a Presidential run before 2027?$16d ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?$47d ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?$117d ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?$37d ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?$157d ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?$147d ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?$87d ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?$87d ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?$447d ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?$27d ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?$17d ago