← Whale Watch

balthazar

Predicting since Jan 202546,521 markets tradedPolymarket profile ↗

Down $35K on NBA markets since Jan 2025.

Right now: $37K across 21 NBA markets.

Biggest hit: +$15K on Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? .

All-time PnL
+$0
This year
+$0
Last 30 days
+$0
Portfolio value
$0

Deep stats

Bucko Oracle
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Profit over time

What they are betting now

MarketSideStakeEntryNowPnL
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?PoliticsYes$6.8K73¢79¢+$544
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?PoliticsYes$2.9K49¢100¢+$3.0K
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$2.7K68¢99¢+$1.2K
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%?PoliticsYes$57216¢98¢+$3.0K
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?TechYes$1.0K36¢96¢+$1.7K
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 31, 2026?TechNo$1.9K91¢97¢+$128
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on July 26?CryptoYes$1.1K51¢96¢+$926
Iran leadership change by December 31?PoliticsYes$2.3K24¢21¢-$366
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?TechNo$1.9K95¢95¢+$5
Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026?FinanceNo$1.7K87¢99¢+$224
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026?TechYes$743.8¢98¢+$1.8K
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?TechNo$1.2K74¢90¢+$258
Will Remco Evenepoel win the 2026 Tour De France?Other sportsNo$1.4K96¢100¢+$51
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on July 27?CryptoYes$1.1K50¢61¢+$238
Will Isaac del Toro win the 2026 Tour De France?Other sportsNo$1.4K99¢100¢+$6
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 26?CryptoYes$1.2K85¢96¢+$165
Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?NBAYes$664.9¢100¢+$1.3K
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?PoliticsYes$393.0¢95¢+$1.2K
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?EconomyYes$94650¢57¢+$142
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?PoliticsNo$94194¢99¢+$52
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on July 28?CryptoYes$1919.1¢47¢+$786
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?PoliticsYes$11010¢86¢+$832
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Soccer (other)Yes$241.1¢44¢+$893
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Formula 1Yes$413.1¢69¢+$861
Will Paul Seixas win the 2026 Tour De France?Other sportsNo$891100¢100¢+$3
Will Larry Rhoden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?PoliticsYes$465.0¢97¢+$846
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's US Open?TennisYes$352.0¢51¢+$826
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Soccer (other)Yes$741.1¢12¢+$686
Will OpenAI's public ticker be $OAI?TechYes$685.3¢57¢+$672
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026?CryptoNo$72897¢98¢+$8
Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$69195¢98¢+$23
Will fewer than 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?PoliticsYes$14020¢100¢+$558
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?TechYes$273.8¢99¢+$669
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?TechNo$55875¢94¢+$134
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?TechYes$273.8¢95¢+$641
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 28, 2026?TechNo$43765¢99¢+$226
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on July 27?CryptoYes$2069.1¢29¢+$451
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?TechNo$60781¢86¢+$34
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?TechYes$223.1¢91¢+$616
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?CryptoYes$59075¢81¢+$42
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on July 28?CryptoYes$1919.1¢30¢+$439
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of August 2026?TechYes$223.1¢90¢+$605
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1?CultureYes$13514¢66¢+$486
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?CryptoNo$60190¢93¢+$17
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?TechYes$223.1¢88¢+$586
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?PoliticsYes$142.2¢93¢+$589
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1?CultureYes$7513¢100¢+$524
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?TechNo$56690¢96¢+$33
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?TechYes$10114¢81¢+$476
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?TechYes$17525¢82¢+$399
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?TechYes$18614¢43¢+$373
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 10, 2026?TechYes$17525¢78¢+$368
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 29, 2026?TechNo$49087¢96¢+$49
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Soccer (other)Yes$241.1¢26¢+$513
Will Jasper Philipsen be awarded the Green Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?Other sportsNo$49492¢100¢+$42
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?EconomyYes$243.4¢77¢+$511
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?EconomyYes$683.6¢28¢+$467
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)MLBChicago White Sox$43257¢71¢+$102
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$39666¢88¢+$129
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?PoliticsYes$23331¢69¢+$289
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?PoliticsYes$51275¢75¢-$2
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?EconomyYes$243.4¢72¢+$476
Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 86m and 92m?CultureYes$32354¢83¢+$175
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?PoliticsYes$516.7¢64¢+$435
Will "Minions & Monsters" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m?CultureYes$12020¢80¢+$360
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?TechYes$293.8¢63¢+$448
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?EconomyYes$213.4¢77¢+$442
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of September 2026?TechYes$193.1¢77¢+$443
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?TechYes$27031¢53¢+$190
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?PoliticsYes$355.0¢66¢+$424
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?PoliticsNo$36573¢92¢+$93
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?TechYes$182.9¢76¢+$435
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?CryptoNo$45090¢91¢+$3
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m?CultureYes$15522¢63¢+$290
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?CryptoNo$36056¢68¢+$72
Will "Moana" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m?CultureYes$26550¢81¢+$162
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?PoliticsYes$213.1¢63¢+$404
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White SoxMLBAtlanta Braves$24632¢53¢+$156
Will GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026?TechNo$19949¢97¢+$200
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?PoliticsYes$212.9¢56¢+$377
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of December?FinanceNo$37092¢97¢+$18
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?TennisYes$352.0¢22¢+$340
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?TechYes$182.9¢63¢+$357
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 26?WeatherYes$10228¢100¢+$267
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?EconomyYes$213.4¢61¢+$346
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?PoliticsYes$253.6¢52¢+$340
Will "PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 30m?CultureYes$21720¢33¢+$141
Will the Malaysian House of Representatives be dissolved by December 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$35047¢47¢-$5
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on July 26?CryptoYes$17550¢98¢+$169
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?PoliticsYes$14020¢49¢+$200
Jay Clayton confirmed as Director of National Intelligence by October 31?PoliticsYes$32497¢98¢+$3
Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?PoliticsYes$14020¢46¢+$179
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?PoliticsNo$1.1K46¢14¢-$772
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?PoliticsNo$50868¢42¢-$197
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?TechYes$31823¢23¢-$12
Will "PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 25m and 30m?CultureYes$21720¢28¢+$89
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?PoliticsNo$19961¢94¢+$106
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on July 28?CryptoYes$1.1K50¢14¢-$746
Will "PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 20m?CultureYes$21720¢28¢+$87
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s US Open?TennisYes$191.5¢24¢+$282

Where the money comes from

Realized + open PnL by category · still crunching older history, totals will deepen

NBA-$35K
Politics+$7.9K
Tech+$5.3K
Weather+$5.1K
Crypto+$4.4K
Economy-$1.5K
Formula 1+$930
NFL+$417
MLB+$332
Culture+$248
Finance+$203
Soccer (other)-$179
Biggest hit
+$15K
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31?
Toughest beat
-$10K
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31?

Recent moves

  • Bought No · Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C on July 26?$1418s ago
  • Bought No · Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C on July 26?$536s ago
  • Bought No · Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 42°C or higher on July 26?$1936s ago
  • Bought No · Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$326m ago
  • Sold Yes · Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$56m ago
  • Sold Yes · Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$56m ago
  • Sold Yes · Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$16m ago
  • Sold Yes · Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$06m ago
  • Sold Yes · Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$06m ago
  • Sold Yes · Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$106m ago
  • Sold Yes · Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$116m ago
  • Sold Yes · Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$16m ago