 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?Politics | Yes | $16 | 13¢ | 12¢ | -$2 |
 Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics | Yes | $15 | 9.8¢ | 8.5¢ | -$2 |
 Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Politics | Yes | $13 | 9.3¢ | 8.5¢ | -$1 |
 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $6 | 0.6¢ | 1.1¢ | +$4 |
 Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics | Yes | $6 | 0.4¢ | 0.6¢ | +$3 |
 Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics | Yes | $10 | 9.3¢ | 8.5¢ | -$1 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $5 | 0.7¢ | 1.2¢ | +$3 |
| Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?Politics | Yes | $6 | 5.0¢ | 6.0¢ | +$1 |
 Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics | Yes | $12 | 1.9¢ | 1.2¢ | -$4 |
| Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics | Yes | $10 | 2.0¢ | 1.1¢ | -$4 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $4 | 18¢ | 24¢ | +$1 |
| Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics | Yes | $3 | 0.3¢ | 0.4¢ | +$2 |
| Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics | Yes | $2 | 0.3¢ | 0.5¢ | +$2 |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics | Yes | $1 | 0.9¢ | 2.7¢ | +$2 |
 Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?Politics | Yes | $4 | 5.7¢ | 5.5¢ | -$0 |
 Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?Politics | Yes | $2 | 13¢ | 20¢ | +$1 |
| Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics | Yes | $4 | 0.3¢ | 0.3¢ | -$1 |
 Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31?Politics | Yes | $4 | 6.2¢ | 5.0¢ | -$1 |
| Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics | Yes | $3 | 0.5¢ | 0.5¢ | +$0 |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?Politics | Yes | $2 | 21¢ | 25¢ | +$0 |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Politics | Yes | $2 | 15¢ | 18¢ | +$0 |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026?Politics | Yes | $2 | 6.1¢ | 7.0¢ | +$0 |
| Will Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics | Yes | $3 | 0.2¢ | 0.1¢ | -$1 |
 Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?Politics | Yes | $3 | 7.8¢ | 5.5¢ | -$1 |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey by September 30, 2026?Politics | Yes | $3 | 0.8¢ | 0.4¢ | -$1 |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria by September 30, 2026?Politics | Yes | $2 | 1.1¢ | 0.8¢ | -$1 |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country by September 30, 2026?Politics | Yes | $1 | 0.5¢ | 0.7¢ | +$0 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $1 | 17¢ | 20¢ | +$0 |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/North Africa country by September 30, 2026?Politics | Yes | $2 | 0.3¢ | 0.1¢ | -$1 |
 Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Politics | Yes | $1 | 3.4¢ | 3.6¢ | +$0 |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt by September 30, 2026?Politics | Yes | $1 | 0.3¢ | 0.4¢ | +$0 |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Politics | YesResolved | $1 | 0.7¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States?Politics | YesResolved | $1 | 0.1¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Economy | YesResolved | $0 | 4.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$0 |
 Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?Politics | NoResolved | $1 | 10¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?Politics | YesResolved | $0 | 0.1¢ | 0.0¢ | -$0 |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran?Politics | YesResolved | $1 | 0.1¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/North Africa country?Politics | YesResolved | $0 | 0.1¢ | 0.0¢ | -$0 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Economy | YesResolved | $2 | 3.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?Politics | YesResolved | $0 | 0.4¢ | 0.0¢ | -$0 |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Politics | NoResolved | $1 | 8.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt?Politics | YesResolved | $0 | 0.1¢ | 0.0¢ | -$0 |