← Whale Watch

trashtier

Predicting since Oct 20244,862 markets tradedPolymarket profile ↗

Down $9.0K on eSports markets since Oct 2024.

Right now: $3.2K across 3 Politics markets.

All-time PnL
+$0
This year
+$0
Last 30 days
+$0
Portfolio value
$0

Deep stats

Bucko Oracle
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Profit over time

What they are betting now

MarketSideStakeEntryNowPnL
Iran leadership change by July 31?PoliticsNo$1.3K93¢99¢+$85
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?PoliticsNo$2.0K77¢51¢-$670
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Soccer (other)Yes$1.1K31¢26¢-$197
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?PoliticsYes$59283¢100¢+$118
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?PoliticsNo$95880¢59¢-$258
Will FaZe Win BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2?eSportsNo$52588¢89¢+$10
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?PoliticsNo$41656¢63¢+$50
Iran leadership change by December 31?PoliticsNo$42274¢80¢+$33
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?PoliticsYes$23529¢50¢+$165
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?PoliticsYes$40946¢44¢-$24
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?PoliticsYes$35589¢81¢-$30
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?PoliticsNo$30768¢69¢+$2
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?PoliticsNo$28463¢66¢+$10
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$26175¢77¢+$6
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?PoliticsNo$24661¢66¢+$16
Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?PoliticsNo$23168¢76¢+$24
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?PoliticsNo$29365¢56¢-$41
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?PoliticsNo$24862¢63¢+$2
Will FaZe win a Tier 1 event in 2026? eSportsYes$16215¢21¢+$56
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?PoliticsYes$22164¢59¢-$21
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24?PoliticsYes$18693¢100¢+$14
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?PoliticsNo$19397¢99¢+$5
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?PoliticsYes$18090¢97¢+$14
Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 60% or more?PoliticsYes$24248¢37¢-$57
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?PoliticsYes$12261¢89¢+$55
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?PoliticsNo$10165¢93¢+$42
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?CryptoNo$10839¢51¢+$32
Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by less than 20%?PoliticsNo$14294¢91¢-$6
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?FinanceNo$16765¢52¢-$32
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?PoliticsNo$12691¢95¢+$6
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$12293¢93¢-$1
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?PoliticsYes$11839¢38¢-$5
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?PoliticsYes$18446¢26¢-$80
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?PoliticsNo$9090¢98¢+$8
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?PoliticsNo$7575¢88¢+$13
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?PoliticsYes$8191¢96¢+$5
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?PoliticsNo$8989¢86¢-$3
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?PoliticsNo$7168¢80¢+$12
Iran leadership change by December 31?PoliticsYes$9223¢21¢-$10
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$7686¢89¢+$2
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?PoliticsNo$7852¢49¢-$5
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?PoliticsYes$7838¢34¢-$7
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?PoliticsNo$12261¢34¢-$55
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?PoliticsNo$6083¢92¢+$6
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?PoliticsYes$6060¢63¢+$3
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Soccer (other)Yes$6012¢12¢-$3
Will Spirit Win BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2?eSportsNo$5560¢62¢+$1
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?Formula 1Yes$4065¢87¢+$13
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?PoliticsYes$5252¢52¢+$1
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?PoliticsNo$4949¢48¢-$1
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?PoliticsNo$5125¢24¢-$4
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?PoliticsNo$4086¢99¢+$6
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Formula 1Yes$14922¢6.5¢-$106
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise GroupeSportsKiwoom DRX$3830¢34¢+$6
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Formula 1Yes$2857¢69¢+$6
Will Jude Bellingham win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Soccer (other)Yes$190.2¢0.4¢+$14
Will Auyl win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections?PoliticsYes$4367¢52¢-$10
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Soccer (other)Yes$2536¢44¢+$6
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?PoliticsNo$3650¢42¢-$6
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousePoliticsNo$2755¢56¢+$1
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31PoliticsNo$2164¢69¢+$1
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?PoliticsNo$1569¢93¢+$5
Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?PoliticsYes$2020¢20¢-$1
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?PoliticsYes$189.0¢9.5¢+$1
Will Lamine Yamal be on the cover of EA Sports FC 27?eSportsYes$35.0¢36¢+$16
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?CryptoYes$2623¢16¢-$8
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?PoliticsYes$2049¢43¢-$3
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?PoliticsNo$2050¢43¢-$3
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?PoliticsYes$1949¢44¢-$2
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?PoliticsYes$256.3¢4.1¢-$9
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026?CryptoNo$843¢79¢+$7
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?EconomyYes$2345¢28¢-$9
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?PoliticsYes$1022¢27¢+$2
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31?PoliticsNo$1295¢99¢+$1
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by August 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$1616¢12¢-$4
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?PoliticsYes$5025¢6.0¢-$38
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-22 House seat?PoliticsYes$1859¢35¢-$7
Kash Patel out by December 31?PoliticsNo$747¢69¢+$3
Will Arman Tsarukyan fight Charles Oliveira next?UFC / MMANo$1632¢19¢-$6
Will Petr Yan fight Merab Dvalishvili next?UFC / MMANo$933¢30¢-$1
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Soccer (other)Yes$203.3¢1.4¢-$11
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?PoliticsYes$111.1¢0.8¢-$3
Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026?Other sportsYes$1117¢10¢-$4
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested before 2027?PoliticsYes$11.1¢6.8¢+$5
Will Count Binface win 30–40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?PoliticsYes$2020¢5.6¢-$14
Will Dplus win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?eSportsYes$46.5¢7.5¢+$1
Will Count Binface win at least 40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?PoliticsYes$2020¢4.6¢-$15
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?PoliticsYes$1249¢20¢-$7
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?PoliticsNo$444¢46¢+$0
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$105.0¢2.0¢-$6
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Soccer (other)Yes$40.4¢0.4¢-$0
Will Pedri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Soccer (other)Yes$40.2¢0.1¢-$1
Will Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?PoliticsNo$7823¢0.7¢-$76
Will there be at least 5000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?WeatherNo$1679¢11¢-$14
Will Geralt of Rivia die during "The Witcher: Season 5"?CultureNo$219¢22¢+$0
Love Wins: 2026 EditionCultureNo$271¢53¢-$1
Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Soccer (other)Yes$10.3¢0.4¢+$0
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1eSportsTHUNDER dOWNUNDERResolved$1824¢0.0¢-$18
Will the State of the Union begin between 9:15PM and 9:30PM ET?PoliticsYesResolved$446¢0.0¢-$4
UFC Fight Night: Geoff Neal vs. Uros Medic (Welterweight, Prelims)UFC / MMAGeoff NealResolved$1665¢0.0¢-$16

Where the money comes from

Realized + open PnL by category · still crunching older history, totals will deepen

eSports-$9.0K
Politics-$8.5K
World Cup-$6.6K
Finance-$2.2K
UFC / MMA-$1.8K
NBA-$699
Formula 1-$603
Other sports-$602
Culture-$517
College Hoops-$470
Mentions-$338
NFL-$298
Biggest hit
+$284
Will "The Substance" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?
Toughest beat
-$318
Energy infrastructure ceasefire in Ukraine in March?

Recent moves

  • Sold No · Iran leadership change by December 31?$1581h ago
  • Bought No · Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?$283h ago
  • Bought No · Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?$23h ago
  • Bought No · Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?$23h ago
  • Bought No · Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?$23h ago
  • Bought No · Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?$23h ago
  • Bought No · Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?$23h ago
  • Bought No · Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?$23h ago
  • Bought No · Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?$163h ago
  • Bought No · Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?$23h ago
  • Bought No · Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?$23h ago
  • Bought No · Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?$24h ago