← Whale Watch

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Predicting since Jan 202543,963 markets tradedPolymarket profile ↗

Down $18K on Weather markets since Jan 2025.

Right now: $800K across 2 Politics markets.

Biggest hit: +$2.5K on Was Milei hacked?.

All-time PnL
+$0
This year
+$0
Last 30 days
+$0
Portfolio value
$0

Deep stats

Bucko Oracle
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Profit over time

What they are betting now

MarketSideStakeEntryNowPnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?PoliticsNo$400K50¢80¢+$238K
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?PoliticsYes$400K50¢20¢-$238K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?PoliticsNo$116K99¢99¢+$746
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?PoliticsNo$86K87¢85¢-$2.2K
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?PoliticsNo$43K87¢95¢+$4.3K
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?PoliticsYes$52K94¢82¢-$6.4K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?PoliticsNo$35K76¢73¢-$1.3K
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$15K50¢84¢+$10K
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?FinanceNo$23K93¢93¢-$28
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?PoliticsNo$19K71¢76¢+$1.3K
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$19K90¢92¢+$262
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?PoliticsNo$18K86¢84¢-$560
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?PoliticsNo$19K46¢42¢-$1.9K
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?PoliticsNo$15K76¢85¢+$1.6K
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$15K92¢99¢+$1.1K
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?PoliticsYes$11K57¢73¢+$3.0K
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?PoliticsYes$17K20¢17¢-$2.8K
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?FinanceNo$14K91¢87¢-$692
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$11K92¢94¢+$162
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?PoliticsNo$11K95¢96¢+$24
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?EconomyNo$12K95¢83¢-$1.4K
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$10K70¢68¢-$375
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?FinanceNo$9.8K98¢99¢+$194
Fed rate hike in 2026?EconomyNo$11K40¢36¢-$1.1K
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?PoliticsNo$12K79¢58¢-$3.2K
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $50 in July?FinanceNo$7.7K92¢98¢+$558
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?PoliticsNo$13K81¢51¢-$4.7K
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?PoliticsNo$7.3K80¢90¢+$884
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$7.9K93¢94¢+$95
Will 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$7.9K99¢99¢+$22
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?PoliticsYes$7.0K77¢87¢+$893
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?PoliticsNo$7.6K96¢99¢+$256
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?TechNo$9.5K81¢60¢-$2.5K
Will 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$6.6K96¢98¢+$142
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?TechNo$6.6K80¢81¢+$31
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$6.9K57¢55¢-$322
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$7.0K82¢77¢-$492
Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?PoliticsNo$6.2K95¢97¢+$116
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$5.6K96¢99¢+$148
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?PoliticsNo$5.8K71¢69¢-$135
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?PoliticsNo$5.6K94¢95¢+$39
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?PoliticsNo$4.9K90¢99¢+$489
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?PoliticsNo$5.2K92¢94¢+$70
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in July?PoliticsNo$4.9K97¢99¢+$98
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?PoliticsNo$4.6K93¢99¢+$309
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?PoliticsNo$5.9K54¢42¢-$1.3K
Betmoar FDV above $20M one day after launch?CryptoYes$5.1K72¢65¢-$518
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $48 in July?FinanceNo$4.3K97¢99¢+$121
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?PoliticsYes$4.4K47¢44¢-$280
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?TechNo$4.0K88¢88¢-$5
US strike on Cuba by December 31?PoliticsNo$4.0K68¢68¢-$46
Iran invades Kuwait by July 31?PoliticsNo$3.9K98¢99¢+$47
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.40 in July?FinanceNo$3.8K97¢99¢+$63
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?TechNo$3.8K89¢91¢+$76
Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by Sep 30?PoliticsNo$3.7K87¢92¢+$211
Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?PoliticsNo$3.7K85¢87¢+$67
US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$3.6K90¢90¢-$20
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?PoliticsNo$3.6K89¢89¢-$17
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,600 in July?FinanceNo$3.4K97¢100¢+$106
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?EconomyNo$3.3K89¢92¢+$75
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?EconomyYes$3.7K92¢83¢-$372
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?EconomyNo$3.7K91¢83¢-$346
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?PoliticsYes$2.9K56¢63¢+$352
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 in July?FinanceNo$3.1K91¢97¢+$174
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?PoliticsYes$4.1K19¢14¢-$961
Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?PoliticsYes$2.7K89¢100¢+$310
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31?PoliticsNo$2.9K86¢87¢+$1
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?EconomyNo$4.1K63¢44¢-$1.2K
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?WeatherNo$3.7K61¢45¢-$960
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?PoliticsNo$2.6K75¢76¢+$23
Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$2.4K85¢86¢+$35
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$1.8K46¢63¢+$667
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $54 in July?FinanceNo$2.1K75¢84¢+$250
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?PoliticsYes$3.4K64¢42¢-$1.2K
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?EconomyNo$2.4K80¢72¢-$238
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?FinanceNo$2.7K68¢54¢-$593
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?PoliticsNo$3.0K66¢47¢-$879
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?PoliticsNo$3.2K57¢38¢-$1.1K
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?FinanceYes$2.1K73¢72¢-$33
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?FinanceNo$2.2K91¢82¢-$208
Will Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?MentionsNo$1.7K86¢100¢+$279
Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?NBAYes$2.0K100¢100¢+$1
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 in July?FinanceNo$1.9K97¢99¢+$29
Iran full airspace closure by July 27?PoliticsNo$1.9K97¢97¢+$0
Israel military action against Yemen by July 31?PoliticsNo$1.9K96¢97¢+$11
Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?PoliticsNo$1.9K95¢94¢-$28
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?FinanceNo$1.9K93¢94¢+$10
Will Erling Haaland be the #1 searched person on Google this year?TechNo$1.8K89¢89¢-$10
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$1.8K88¢88¢-$10
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?TechYes$1.7K90¢91¢+$9
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?PoliticsYes$1.8K24¢24¢-$56
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?TechYes$1.7K89¢89¢-$9
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?PoliticsNo$1.7K84¢84¢-$15
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?MLBNo$1.7K71¢67¢-$111
Will USD-denominated stablecoin market share fall below 99% in 2026?CryptoNo$1.6K79¢80¢+$10
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.00 in July?FinanceNo$1.6K97¢99¢+$38
Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?NBANo$1.6K81¢81¢-$10
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?EconomyNo$1.5K76¢78¢+$43
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?PoliticsYes$1.7K35¢31¢-$172
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?PoliticsNo$1.5K77¢80¢+$45

Where the money comes from

Realized + open PnL by category · still crunching older history, totals will deepen

Weather-$18K
Politics-$17K
Tech-$13K
Economy-$9.5K
Crypto-$7.7K
Culture-$5.3K
Finance-$3.1K
Mentions-$1.1K
NBA-$825
NFL-$647
Other sports-$560
UFC / MMA+$459
Biggest hit
+$2.5K
Was Milei hacked?
Toughest beat
-$6.3K
Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28?

Recent moves

  • Bought No · US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$11115s ago
  • Bought No · US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?$15116s ago
  • Sold No · Will Warsh say "Recession" during July Press Conference?$101m ago
  • Sold No · Will Warsh say "Recession" during July Press Conference?$411m ago
  • Sold No · Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?$272m ago
  • Sold No · Will Warsh say "Recession" during July Press Conference?$102m ago
  • Sold Yes · Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?$55m ago
  • Sold Yes · Will UPS (UPS) beat quarterly earnings?$195m ago
  • Sold Yes · Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?$7936m ago
  • Sold No · Will MrBeast say "Hundred" or "Thousand" or "Million" 10+ times during his next gaming YouTube video?$2110m ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Rick Devens win Big Brother season 28?$210m ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Trump say "Save America Act" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?$213m ago