← Whale Watch

Optimus-

Predicting since Dec 20242,548 markets tradedPolymarket profile ↗

Up $8.6K on Politics markets since Dec 2024.

Right now: $43K across 3 Politics markets.

Biggest hit: +$1.5K on Will anyone say "Advertisement" during the Q2 2025 AMC earnings call?.

All-time PnL
+$0
This year
+$0
Last 30 days
+$0
Portfolio value
$0

Deep stats

Bucko Oracle
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Profit over time

What they are betting now

MarketSideStakeEntryNowPnL
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?PoliticsNo$22K50¢57¢+$3.1K
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?PoliticsYes$22K50¢43¢-$3.1K
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?PoliticsYes$2.8K82¢86¢+$126
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?PoliticsYes$1.7K89¢98¢+$180
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?PoliticsNo$1.0K50¢90¢+$834
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?TechNo$1.6K84¢88¢+$74
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?PoliticsNo$1.2K80¢96¢+$233
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?TechYes$2.4K35¢19¢-$1.1K
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$82665¢81¢+$210
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?TechYes$1.1K69¢54¢-$247
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HousePoliticsYes$72734¢41¢+$129
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?TechYes$1.3K16¢9.5¢-$544
Will Congress override any veto in 2026?PoliticsNo$68278¢90¢+$101
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?TechYes$1.2K68¢43¢-$441
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?PoliticsNo$30042¢99¢+$410
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a technocrat?PoliticsNo$44055¢78¢+$181
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?PoliticsYes$38555¢88¢+$227
Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?PoliticsNo$42553¢73¢+$161
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?PoliticsYes$54391¢96¢+$29
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Soccer (other)No$59860¢56¢-$31
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?TechNo$52057¢62¢+$39
FDA approves Retatrutide this year?TechNo$41172¢98¢+$144
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027?TechNo$43061¢78¢+$122
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?PoliticsNo$45992¢96¢+$22
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? CultureNo$43587¢95¢+$37
Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31?PoliticsNo$33553¢75¢+$136
Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?PoliticsNo$39065¢78¢+$78
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?PoliticsNo$33567¢91¢+$117
Anysphere (Cursor) IPO before 2027?TechNo$41997¢98¢+$6
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?FinanceNo$20814¢28¢+$213
AI bubble burst in 2026?TechNo$33667¢84¢+$84
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?PoliticsNo$33552¢66¢+$84
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?TechNo$45530¢27¢-$57
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?PoliticsYes$34349¢56¢+$46
Andrew Tate released from custody by July 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$34887¢97¢+$39
Will US annex any territory in 2026?PoliticsNo$35689¢96¢+$29
Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by Sep 30?PoliticsNo$31679¢92¢+$50
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?TechNo$20040¢72¢+$160
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?PoliticsNo$30877¢89¢+$48
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?PoliticsYes$31643¢47¢+$30
Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?TechNo$29674¢85¢+$44
Eli Lilly licenses Peptron’s SmartDepot by October 7?TechNo$18045¢84¢+$156
Cuban regime falls in 2026?PoliticsNo$28070¢82¢+$48
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?TechYes$35657¢47¢-$67
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?PoliticsYes$22028¢34¢+$56
Fed rate hike in 2026?EconomyYes$21152¢68¢+$60
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?PoliticsYes$38147¢30¢-$140
Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?PoliticsNo$19464¢76¢+$35
Anthropic IPO before 2027?TechNo$22633¢32¢-$4
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?PoliticsNo$19565¢68¢+$8
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?PoliticsYes$22575¢67¢-$26
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?PoliticsNo$16482¢97¢+$31
Deel IPO before 2027?TechNo$6231¢96¢+$129
Kristi Noem divorce by August 31?PoliticsNo$32064¢37¢-$135
Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet engaged in 2026?CultureNo$13266¢83¢+$34
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?PoliticsNo$13376¢95¢+$32
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?PoliticsNo$8040¢80¢+$79
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026PoliticsYes$11555¢74¢+$40
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?PoliticsNo$9052¢89¢+$64
GTA 6 launch postponed again?TechNo$7852¢90¢+$57
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?PoliticsYes$18537¢26¢-$55
Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by September 30?PoliticsYes$18525¢17¢-$63
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?PoliticsYes$3361.6¢0.5¢-$217
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?PoliticsYes$337.6¢27¢+$84
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?TechYes$25843¢19¢-$147
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?TechYes$38960¢17¢-$279
Will the US federal government take a stake in OpenAI?PoliticsYes$37164¢18¢-$269
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?PoliticsYes$8684¢89¢+$6
McDonald’s in Cuba announced in 2026?PoliticsNo$7878¢91¢+$13
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?PoliticsNo$4824¢43¢+$37
Will BRICS add a new member in 2026?PoliticsNo$1717¢80¢+$63
Will Taylor Swift release "Taylor Swift (Taylor's Version)" in 2026?CultureYes$9048¢43¢-$10
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027?PoliticsNo$7289¢98¢+$7
Will Trump praise Allah again by July 31?PoliticsYes$12525¢14¢-$55
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Soccer (other)Yes$7212¢12¢-$3
Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run before 2027?PoliticsNo$5273¢96¢+$17
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by July 31?PoliticsYes$685.9¢5.5¢-$4
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?PoliticsYes$23429¢7.5¢-$174
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?TechNo$8414¢9.5¢-$27
Kristi Noem impeached in 2026?PoliticsNo$4280¢88¢+$4
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?PoliticsNo$20434¢7.0¢-$162
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026?TechYes$24826¢3.4¢-$216
Will MGM Resorts be acquired before 2027?TechYes$2755¢65¢+$5
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?PoliticsYes$6030¢12¢-$36
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?PoliticsYes$10058¢12¢-$80
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?PoliticsYes$2039¢38¢-$1
Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?TechNo$1954¢54¢+$0
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?PoliticsYes$1017¢23¢+$4
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?PoliticsYes$1862¢35¢-$8
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2026?TechYes$97.0¢7.5¢+$1
Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?CryptoYes$525¢41¢+$3
Kash Patel out by December 31?PoliticsNo$217¢69¢+$6
Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?PoliticsYes$827¢27¢+$0
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Soccer (other)Yes$6241¢4.2¢-$56
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?EconomyYes$4026¢2.8¢-$36
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?PoliticsNo$361¢80¢+$1
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?World CupYesResolved$22922¢0.0¢-$229
France vs. Spain: Team to AdvanceWorld CupFranceResolved$10057¢0.0¢-$100
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?FinanceYesResolved$14271¢0.0¢-$142
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 15?TechYesResolved$30025¢0.0¢-$300

Where the money comes from

Realized + open PnL by category · still crunching older history, totals will deepen

Politics+$8.6K
Tech+$1.9K
Mentions+$1.7K
World Cup-$449
NBA-$420
eSports-$342
Other sports+$289
Economy+$183
Weather+$170
Finance+$106
Soccer (other)-$86
Golf+$81
Biggest hit
+$1.5K
Will anyone say "Advertisement" during the Q2 2025 AMC earnings call?
Toughest beat
-$515
Will Elon register the America Party in 2025?

Recent moves

  • Sold Yes · Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?$1158h ago
  • Sold Yes · Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?$1071d ago
  • Sold Yes · Fed rate hike in 2026?$8801d ago
  • Bought Yes · Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?$91d ago
  • Bought Yes · Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?$101d ago
  • Bought Yes · Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?$61d ago
  • Sold Yes · Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?$111d ago
  • Sold No · FDA approves Retatrutide this year?$3361d ago
  • Sold Yes · Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?$52d ago
  • Bought Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$3852d ago
  • Sold Yes · Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?$112d ago
  • Sold Yes · Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?$1842d ago