← Whale Watch

melganis

Predicting since Nov 20252,606 markets tradedPolymarket profile ↗

Up $8.4K on Politics markets since Nov 2025.

Right now: $1.8K across 5 Politics markets.

Biggest hit: +$2.8K on Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?.

All-time PnL
+$0
This year
+$0
Last 30 days
+$0
Portfolio value
$0

Deep stats

Bucko Oracle
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Profit over time

What they are betting now

MarketSideStakeEntryNowPnL
Will GameStop acquire eBay?FinanceNo$84685¢88¢+$29
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?PoliticsNo$65776¢99¢+$201
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?PoliticsNo$61358¢80¢+$231
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?PoliticsYes$1.1K0.8¢0.5¢-$328
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?PoliticsNo$70992¢95¢+$23
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?PoliticsYes$59674¢83¢+$66
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?PoliticsNo$57682¢95¢+$86
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?PoliticsYes$82274¢59¢-$169
US strike on Cuba by December 31?PoliticsYes$87945¢33¢-$239
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?PoliticsNo$55887¢93¢+$35
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?CryptoNo$51651¢55¢+$44
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?PoliticsNo$46593¢96¢+$15
Kash Patel out by December 31?PoliticsNo$17025¢69¢+$302
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?TechYes$41490¢89¢-$8
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?PoliticsNo$35990¢100¢+$41
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?PoliticsNo$38797¢99¢+$10
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?PoliticsNo$32280¢99¢+$73
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?PoliticsNo$32481¢93¢+$46
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?CryptoNo$34687¢93¢+$24
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?PoliticsNo$32481¢92¢+$42
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?PoliticsYes$24841¢61¢+$115
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$34887¢91¢+$14
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$28872¢89¢+$66
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?PoliticsNo$30075¢88¢+$50
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?PoliticsYes$34664¢56¢-$40
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026?CultureNo$28595¢100¢+$15
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?PoliticsNo$29474¢74¢+$2
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?TechYes$28872¢74¢+$6
Will GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026?TechNo$25786¢97¢+$35
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?PoliticsYes$2964.9¢4.9¢-$5
Fed rate hike in 2026?EconomyYes$25062¢68¢+$20
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?PoliticsNo$22475¢88¢+$39
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?PoliticsYes$21471¢86¢+$43
US strike on Cuba by December 31?PoliticsNo$25869¢68¢-$6
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?PoliticsNo$34185¢62¢-$92
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?PoliticsNo$16146¢66¢+$69
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?CryptoNo$20267¢74¢+$20
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?PoliticsNo$19396¢100¢+$7
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Formula 1No$52677¢29¢-$327
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Formula 1No$19095¢100¢+$10
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?PoliticsNo$18291¢97¢+$13
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?WeatherNo$18994¢97¢+$4
Ebola pandemic in 2026?WeatherNo$18492¢96¢+$9
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?PoliticsNo$18693¢96¢+$7
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?PoliticsYes$18190¢96¢+$11
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?PoliticsNo$18090¢95¢+$10
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?FinanceNo$18591¢94¢+$5
Iran Nuke before 2027?PoliticsNo$17889¢95¢+$12
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?PoliticsNo$15879¢95¢+$31
Trump out as President before 2027?PoliticsNo$17085¢94¢+$17
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?PoliticsNo$16683¢92¢+$17
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$17286¢92¢+$11
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$16683¢89¢+$11
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?PoliticsNo$14673¢88¢+$29
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?PoliticsNo$14271¢87¢+$32
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?PoliticsNo$17286¢81¢-$11
Will GPT-6 be released by August 7, 2026?TechNo$14993¢99¢+$9
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$65637¢8.5¢-$505
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?CryptoNo$12441¢51¢+$27
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?PoliticsYes$20040¢30¢-$50
Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?TechNo$14681¢80¢-$3
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?PoliticsNo$12060¢61¢+$1
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$10190¢97¢+$7
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?TechNo$7856¢73¢+$24
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$8181¢99¢+$18
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31?PoliticsNo$9292¢99¢+$7
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Soccer (other)No$8484¢99¢+$15
Will United Russia win fewer than 280 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?PoliticsNo$8888¢98¢+$10
Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027?PoliticsNo$6454¢82¢+$33
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$8383¢97¢+$14
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?PoliticsNo$8585¢97¢+$12
Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026?CryptoNo$8282¢97¢+$15
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$9292¢95¢+$3
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?PoliticsNo$7676¢94¢+$18
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?PoliticsYes$8787¢93¢+$5
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?PoliticsNo$7272¢93¢+$21
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?EconomyNo$8383¢88¢+$5
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?Formula 1Yes$7777¢85¢+$8
Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?TechNo$8888¢83¢-$5
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?WeatherNo$5063¢100¢+$29
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?PoliticsNo$6363¢69¢+$6
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?CultureNo$6868¢67¢-$2
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?CultureYes$7575¢66¢-$10
Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?TechNo$7373¢65¢-$9
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$5353¢65¢+$12
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?PoliticsNo$4365¢85¢+$13
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?PoliticsYes$540.7¢0.7¢-$2
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$4742¢46¢+$4
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?PoliticsNo$4590¢97¢+$4
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026?CryptoNo$1931¢80¢+$30
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?PoliticsNo$4385¢95¢+$5
Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026?PoliticsNo$4079¢93¢+$7
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?PoliticsYes$3876¢91¢+$7
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?PoliticsNo$3467¢87¢+$10
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 Action of the Year?Other sportsNo$2639¢63¢+$16
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?CultureYes$1429¢83¢+$27
Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?PoliticsNo$6114¢9.5¢-$20
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?TechYes$4182¢81¢-$1
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?PoliticsNo$3689¢95¢+$3
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?PoliticsYes$4949¢37¢-$12

Where the money comes from

Realized + open PnL by category · still crunching older history, totals will deepen

Politics+$8.4K
Crypto+$2.1K
Culture+$1.7K
Mentions+$481
Other sports+$471
Tech-$364
Hockey (other)+$281
Other-$225
Premier League+$219
Formula 1-$135
NFL+$126
Finance+$84
Biggest hit
+$2.8K
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?
Toughest beat
-$1.8K
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?

Recent moves

  • Bought Yes · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$2518h ago
  • Bought No · Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?$6819h ago
  • Cashed out Yes · Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?$1001d ago
  • Cashed out No · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$9844d ago
  • Cashed out No · Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?$2005d ago
  • Sold No · US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$1386d ago
  • Sold No · US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$206d ago
  • Cashed out Yes · World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?$506d ago
  • Cashed out No · World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?$1506d ago
  • Sold No · US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$3528d ago