← Whale Watch

barenverge

Predicting since Dec 20251,635 markets tradedPolymarket profile ↗
All-time PnL
+$0
This year
+$0
Last 30 days
+$0
Portfolio value
$0

Deep stats

Bucko Oracle
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Profit over time

What they are betting now

MarketSideStakeEntryNowPnL
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$854¢88¢+$5
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?PoliticsNo$974¢95¢+$3
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?PoliticsNo$1084¢99¢+$2
Will Kyriakos Mitsotakis be the next Prime Minister of Greece?PoliticsYes$541¢90¢+$6
Will New Democracy (ND) win the most seats in the next Greek parliamentary elections?PoliticsYes$1088¢96¢+$1
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?EconomyNo$1086¢92¢+$1
Iran leadership change by September 30?PoliticsNo$1088¢89¢+$0
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?PoliticsYes$1082¢82¢+$0
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?PoliticsNo$1096¢96¢+$0
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?PoliticsNo$884¢96¢+$1
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in July?FinanceYes$549¢91¢+$4
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?PoliticsYes$527¢50¢+$4
Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch?CryptoNo$536¢61¢+$3
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?PoliticsNo$544¢73¢+$3
Unit FDV above $1B one day after launch?CryptoYes$1246¢31¢-$4
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?PoliticsYes$541¢67¢+$3
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?PoliticsYes$543¢70¢+$3
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?FinanceNo$552¢84¢+$3
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?PoliticsYes$425¢53¢+$4
Iran full airspace closure by August 15?PoliticsNo$550¢77¢+$3
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$566¢99¢+$2
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?PoliticsNo$563¢95¢+$2
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?PoliticsNo$546¢67¢+$2
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?PoliticsYes$562¢87¢+$2
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?PoliticsNo$557¢75¢+$2
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?PoliticsNo$562¢81¢+$1
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?PoliticsYes$542¢54¢+$1
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?PoliticsYes$545¢57¢+$1
Pacifica FDV above $300M one day after launch?CryptoYes$1026¢15¢-$4
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?PoliticsNo$578¢94¢+$1
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$519¢24¢+$1
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?PoliticsYes$553¢64¢+$1
StandX FDV above $200M one day after launch?CryptoNo$534¢39¢+$1
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?PoliticsYes$566¢75¢+$1
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?PoliticsNoResolved$591¢100¢+$0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?PoliticsNo$566¢73¢+$1
Will Zoe Konstantopoulou be the next Prime Minister of Greece?PoliticsNo$592¢99¢+$0
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?PoliticsNo$573¢80¢+$0
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?PoliticsYes$580¢86¢+$0
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?PoliticsNo$592¢98¢+$0
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?CryptoNo$522¢24¢+$0
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$587¢92¢+$0
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?PoliticsNo$584¢88¢+$0
Will Kyriakos Velopoulos be the next Prime Minister of Greece?PoliticsNo$596¢100¢+$0
Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?PoliticsNo$592¢97¢+$0
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29?PoliticsYes$591¢94¢+$0
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?PoliticsNo$584¢87¢+$0
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?PoliticsYes$584¢87¢+$0
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?PoliticsNo$590¢93¢+$0
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?PoliticsYes$598¢100¢+$0
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?CryptoNo$572¢73¢+$0
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 6, 2026?PoliticsNo$588¢89¢+$0
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?PoliticsNo$581¢83¢+$0
Will Microstrategy announce selling any Bitcoin July 7-13?CryptoNoResolved$5100¢100¢+$0
Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$595¢97¢+$0
Will a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?PoliticsNo$597¢97¢+$0
Iran leadership change by July 31?PoliticsNo$597¢99¢+$0
Will Ayyoub Bouaddi win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?World CupNoResolved$591¢100¢+$0
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$482¢100¢+$1
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?PoliticsNo$575¢76¢+$0
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?PoliticsNo$596¢100¢+$0
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?PoliticsNo$595¢96¢+$0
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?PoliticsNo$597¢100¢+$0
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31?PoliticsNo$484¢100¢+$1
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$595¢96¢+$0
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?PoliticsNo$590¢90¢+$0
China x Japan military clash before 2027?PoliticsNo$593¢93¢-$0
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?PoliticsNo$596¢96¢-$0
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?WeatherNo$598¢97¢-$0
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?PoliticsNo$591¢88¢-$0
Will no one dissent the July Fed decision?EconomyNo$575¢73¢-$0
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$584¢80¢-$0
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?PoliticsYes$583¢80¢-$0
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$485¢94¢+$0
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?PoliticsNo$483¢93¢+$1
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?EconomyNo$471¢93¢+$1
Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026?EconomyNo$591¢93¢+$0
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$470¢92¢+$1
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.6% before 2027?PoliticsNo$481¢91¢+$0
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.7% before 2027?PoliticsNo$478¢89¢+$1
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$585¢77¢-$0
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?PoliticsNo$589¢80¢-$1
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?PoliticsNo$482¢88¢+$0
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?PoliticsNo$473¢88¢+$1
Cuban regime falls in 2026?PoliticsNo$366¢85¢+$1
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?CryptoNo$522¢20¢-$1
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?CryptoYes$531¢27¢-$1
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?CryptoNo$481¢83¢+$0
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?PoliticsYes$353¢82¢+$1
Unit FDV above $200M one day after launch?CryptoYes$557¢45¢-$1
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026PoliticsYes$360¢77¢+$1
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?CryptoNo$474¢75¢+$0
Greek snap election scheduled in 2026?PoliticsNo$242¢81¢+$2
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?PoliticsNo$369¢68¢-$0
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?CryptoNo$365¢66¢+$0
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?PoliticsYes$546¢31¢-$2
Iran Nuke before 2027?PoliticsNo$387¢95¢+$0
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?CryptoNo$357¢57¢-$0
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?CryptoNo$356¢52¢-$0
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?PoliticsYes$362¢38¢-$1

Where the money comes from

Realized + open PnL by category · still crunching older history, totals will deepen

Politics+$85
Culture+$46
Crypto-$30
NFL+$13
Soccer (other)+$13
eSports-$9
NBA-$9
Premier League-$8
Economy+$6
Finance+$5
Tech-$3
Basketball (other)-$3
Biggest hit
+$14
US strikes Yemen by December 31?
Toughest beat
-$15
Will Claude 5 be released by March 15, 2026?

Recent moves

  • Bought Yes · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$56h ago
  • Bought No · Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$57h ago
  • Bought Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29?$57h ago
  • Bought Yes · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$519h ago
  • Bought Yes · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$520h ago
  • Bought Yes · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$520h ago
  • Sold Yes · US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$220h ago
  • Sold Yes · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$722h ago
  • Sold Yes · Israel closes its airspace by August 31?$21d ago
  • Bought No · Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?$51d ago
  • Bought Yes · Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in July?$51d ago
  • Bought Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?$51d ago