← Whale Watch

JoeBlack01

Predicting since Dec 2024924 markets tradedPolymarket profile ↗

Down $6.6K on Politics markets since Dec 2024.

Right now: $15K riding on Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?.

Biggest hit: +$14K on Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?.

All-time PnL
+$0
This year
+$0
Last 30 days
+$0
Portfolio value
$0

Deep stats

Bucko Oracle
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Profit over time

What they are betting now

MarketSideStakeEntryNowPnL
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?PoliticsNo$9.9K67¢77¢+$1.4K
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$8.7K50¢53¢+$499
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$7.4K81¢88¢+$659
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$6.1K73¢78¢+$429
US strike on Cuba by December 31?PoliticsNo$3.6K52¢68¢+$1.1K
Trump meets with Putin by December 31?PoliticsNo$4.1K64¢71¢+$449
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$4.3K95¢98¢+$151
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?PoliticsNo$4.4K66¢60¢-$400
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?PoliticsYes$1.8K14¢27¢+$1.8K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?PoliticsYes$4.4K73¢58¢-$900
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?PoliticsNo$2.7K81¢89¢+$236
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?PoliticsYes$2.2K75¢78¢+$75
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?PoliticsYes$1.2K7.8¢12¢+$689
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$1.5K72¢88¢+$322
Will Trump and Putin not meet?PoliticsYes$1.5K62¢69¢+$150
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?PoliticsYes$8975.0¢8.5¢+$624
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$1.2K90¢96¢+$83
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$1.3K43¢40¢-$104
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by July 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$1.0K94¢99¢+$64
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?PoliticsNo$77773¢99¢+$274
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$95095¢98¢+$31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?PoliticsYes$1.3K22¢17¢-$329
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$9709.7¢9.5¢-$20
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?PoliticsNo$24319¢73¢+$703
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?PoliticsYes$1.1K5.7¢4.9¢-$153
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$80186¢92¢+$63
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?PoliticsNo$1.0K33¢27¢-$181
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?PoliticsNo$47660¢94¢+$272
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?PoliticsNo$63837¢41¢+$54
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?PoliticsYes$82167¢53¢-$181
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?PoliticsNo$67142¢38¢-$63
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?PoliticsNo$42761¢87¢+$179
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?PoliticsNo$42747¢50¢+$19
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?PoliticsYes$21126¢46¢+$164
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?PoliticsYes$59724¢13¢-$291
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?PoliticsYes$44044¢28¢-$165
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$3008.0¢6.5¢-$56
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?PoliticsYes$2855.7¢4.7¢-$52
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?PoliticsYes$8.2K29¢0.7¢-$8.0K
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?PoliticsYes$45322¢6.5¢-$322
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?PoliticsYes$24340¢9.5¢-$185
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?PoliticsYes$17634¢10.0¢-$124
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$74131¢1.1¢-$714
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$38013¢0.9¢-$354
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?PoliticsNo$1635¢37¢+$1
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in July?CryptoYes$27511¢0.7¢-$259
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?PoliticsYes$2320¢14¢-$7
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?PoliticsYes$19816¢0.7¢-$190
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?PoliticsYesResolved$20425¢0.0¢-$204
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?PoliticsYesResolved$19833¢0.0¢-$198
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$76042¢0.0¢-$760
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$92422¢0.0¢-$924
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$1041¢0.0¢-$10
Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by March 31, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$75857¢0.0¢-$758
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by April 30?PoliticsYesResolved$27310.0¢0.0¢-$273
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?PoliticsYesResolved$39823¢0.0¢-$398
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 18, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$3313¢0.0¢-$33
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$2.0K50¢0.0¢-$2.0K
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?PoliticsYesResolved$47479¢0.0¢-$474
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?PoliticsYesResolved$2.4K82¢0.0¢-$2.4K
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?PoliticsYesResolved$1.1K24¢0.0¢-$1.1K
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June?CryptoYesResolved$656.5¢0.0¢-$65
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$8021¢0.0¢-$80
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?PoliticsNoResolved$2139.7¢0.0¢-$213
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?PoliticsYesResolved$2456.5¢0.0¢-$245
Ethereum all time high by March 31, 2026?CryptoYesResolved$1086.5¢0.0¢-$108
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$55023¢0.0¢-$550
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$4078.5¢0.0¢-$407
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June?CryptoYesResolved$1.9K32¢0.0¢-$1.9K
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League?Champions LeagueYesResolved$15015¢0.0¢-$150
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?PoliticsYesResolved$40613¢0.0¢-$406
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by March 31?PoliticsYesResolved$88738¢0.0¢-$887
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$56018¢0.0¢-$560
Will Russia capture Lyman by January 31, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$86417¢0.0¢-$864
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?PoliticsNoResolved$82082¢0.0¢-$820
Will Russia enter Rizdvianka by March 31, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$1.1K56¢0.0¢-$1.1K
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$2.6K51¢0.0¢-$2.6K
Will Russia enter Myrne by March 31, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$906.0¢0.0¢-$90
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$2257.5¢0.0¢-$225
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June?CryptoNoResolved$603.0¢0.0¢-$60
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by April 30, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$3232¢0.0¢-$32
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$15K71¢0.0¢-$15K
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?PoliticsYesResolved$3.3K29¢0.0¢-$3.3K
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?World CupYesResolved$381.9¢0.0¢-$38
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3?CryptoNoResolved$8812¢0.0¢-$88
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$24716¢0.0¢-$247
Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$437.1¢0.0¢-$43
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 17?PoliticsNoResolved$36127¢0.0¢-$361
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$1.7K50¢0.0¢-$1.7K
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?PoliticsYesResolved$21.8¢0.0¢-$2
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$48018¢0.0¢-$480
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31?PoliticsYesResolved$7.4K53¢0.0¢-$7.4K
Will Ukraine re-enter Huliaipole by March 31?PoliticsNoResolved$47753¢0.0¢-$477
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30?PoliticsYesResolved$98557¢0.0¢-$985
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?PoliticsYesResolved$2.8K72¢0.0¢-$2.8K
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?PoliticsNoResolved$3.1K38¢0.0¢-$3.1K
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?PoliticsNoResolved$82055¢0.0¢-$820
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$35418¢0.0¢-$354
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$58110¢0.0¢-$581
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?PoliticsYesResolved$1068.5¢0.0¢-$106

Where the money comes from

Realized + open PnL by category · still crunching older history, totals will deepen

Politics-$6.6K
Crypto-$1.5K
Tennis+$832
Culture+$781
NBA+$538
Soccer (other)-$300
World Cup-$295
NHL-$243
Champions League-$150
Other sports-$57
Tech-$50
Biggest hit
+$14K
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?
Toughest beat
-$12K
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by August 31?

Recent moves

  • Sold No · Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?$11410m ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Trump and Putin not meet?$2024h ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Trump and Putin not meet?$84h ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Trump and Putin not meet?$134h ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?$15h ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?$07h ago
  • Sold Yes · US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?$2318h ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?$898h ago
  • Sold Yes · Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?$9917h ago
  • Sold Yes · Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?$8317h ago
  • Bought No · Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$54018h ago
  • Sold No · Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?$819h ago