← Whale Watch

Elias.Thornwell

Predicting since Jun 202518,738 markets tradedPolymarket profile ↗

Up $13K on Politics markets since Jun 2025.

Right now: $23K across 39 Politics markets.

All-time PnL
+$0
This year
+$0
Last 30 days
+$0
Portfolio value
$0

Deep stats

Bucko Oracle
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Profit over time

What they are betting now

MarketSideStakeEntryNowPnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?PoliticsNo$17K94¢96¢+$387
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?CryptoNo$17K93¢94¢+$298
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?PoliticsNo$14K92¢95¢+$444
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$10.0K88¢92¢+$354
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?PoliticsNo$10K78¢80¢+$136
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?PoliticsYes$8.8K85¢82¢-$251
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?WeatherNo$7.4K92¢97¢+$364
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?PoliticsNo$7.0K90¢96¢+$466
Trump out as President before 2027?PoliticsNo$5.5K89¢94¢+$248
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?PoliticsNo$4.6K88¢99¢+$604
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?PoliticsNo$4.6K83¢92¢+$472
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?PoliticsNo$5.0K99¢100¢+$23
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?PoliticsNo$4.5K98¢100¢+$89
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?PoliticsNo$3.7K92¢96¢+$178
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?PoliticsNo$3.7K96¢97¢+$65
Xi Jinping out before 2027?PoliticsNo$3.5K93¢95¢+$103
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?PoliticsNo$3.5K98¢99¢+$27
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?EconomyYes$2.1K52¢85¢+$1.3K
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in July?CryptoNo$3.3K99¢100¢+$21
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in July?CryptoNo$3.1K97¢99¢+$66
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$3.1K90¢91¢+$12
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in July?CryptoNo$3.1K99¢100¢+$23
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?PoliticsNo$3.1K93¢90¢-$93
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?CryptoNo$2.7K82¢93¢+$339
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?PoliticsNo$3.0K99¢99¢-$10
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in July?CryptoNo$2.8K95¢96¢+$37
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?PoliticsNo$2.8K92¢93¢+$17
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?PoliticsNo$2.8K100¢100¢+$2
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in July?CryptoNo$2.7K99¢100¢+$16
Iran Nuke before 2027?PoliticsNo$2.6K93¢95¢+$53
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in July?CryptoNo$2.6K100¢100¢+$5
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026?CryptoNo$2.5K94¢98¢+$106
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?PoliticsNo$2.6K95¢93¢-$47
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026?CryptoNo$2.4K93¢96¢+$91
New "Stranger Things" episode released by July 31? CultureNo$2.3K99¢100¢+$7
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?PoliticsNo$2.2K89¢95¢+$151
Will GameStop acquire eBay?FinanceNo$2.2K86¢88¢+$48
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?PoliticsNo$2.2K87¢89¢+$40
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in July?FinanceNo$2.1K100¢100¢+$0
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?PoliticsNo$1.9K96¢100¢+$69
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?EconomyNo$1.9K100¢99¢-$1
New pandemic in 2026?PoliticsNo$1.8K88¢94¢+$118
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in July?CryptoNo$1.9K100¢100¢+$5
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?FinanceNo$1.7K83¢91¢+$148
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?PoliticsYes$2.0K61¢56¢-$142
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?PoliticsNo$1.9K100¢99¢-$5
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?PoliticsNo$1.8K99¢100¢+$8
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in July?CryptoNo$1.8K100¢100¢+$4
China x Japan military clash before 2027?PoliticsNo$1.7K89¢93¢+$70
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?PoliticsNo$1.6K87¢95¢+$145
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?PoliticsNo$1.6K93¢95¢+$27
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in July?CryptoNo$1.6K99¢100¢+$20
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?PoliticsNo$1.4K88¢99¢+$169
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?PoliticsNo$1.6K95¢97¢+$34
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?PoliticsYes$1.5K94¢93¢-$9
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?PoliticsNo$1.5K100¢100¢+$1
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?PoliticsNo$1.5K100¢100¢+$2
Trump out as President by July 31?PoliticsNo$1.4K99¢100¢+$7
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?PoliticsNo$1.3K82¢87¢+$74
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026?CryptoNo$1.3K86¢91¢+$82
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Formula 1Yes$61036¢75¢+$665
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?PoliticsNo$1.3K97¢97¢+$3
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?PoliticsNo$1.2K94¢98¢+$45
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? CultureNo$1.2K92¢95¢+$31
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?PoliticsYes$92374¢93¢+$240
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?PoliticsNo$1.1K98¢100¢+$15
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?PoliticsNo$1.0K95¢99¢+$43
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?PoliticsNo$1.1K84¢87¢+$36
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026?CryptoNo$1.0K89¢94¢+$55
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?CryptoNo$97585¢93¢+$82
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 by December 31, 2026?CryptoNo$1.0K94¢96¢+$30
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?CryptoNo$1.0K93¢96¢+$35
Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?NBAYes$1.0K100¢100¢-$1
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?PoliticsYes$1.0K97¢98¢+$8
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July?FinanceNo$95097¢100¢+$28
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in July?CryptoNo$92998¢100¢+$14
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePoliticsNo$87782¢87¢+$53
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?EconomyNo$90598¢100¢+$11
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?EconomyNo$93186¢83¢-$34
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?PoliticsNo$85692¢97¢+$39
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$87993¢95¢+$15
GTA 6 launch postponed again?TechNo$88589¢90¢+$8
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?PoliticsNo$87798¢99¢+$1
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?PoliticsNo$87498¢98¢-$2
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?CryptoNo$81088¢94¢+$61
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?PoliticsNo$89191¢88¢-$33
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$79483¢89¢+$55
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?PoliticsNo$81366¢66¢-$2
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$80399¢100¢+$1
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?PoliticsNo$76894¢97¢+$21
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?PoliticsNo$70980¢88¢+$67
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?PoliticsNo$67780¢92¢+$97
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?CryptoNo$67886¢96¢+$77
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$72496¢99¢+$28
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?PoliticsYes$90771¢59¢-$157
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?PoliticsNo$749100¢100¢+$1
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?CryptoNo$64982¢95¢+$98
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?PoliticsNo$71495¢98¢+$28
Will Tyler Kistner be the Republican Nominee for MN-02?PoliticsNo$72798¢100¢+$13
H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026?PoliticsNo$70488¢92¢+$31

Where the money comes from

Realized + open PnL by category · still crunching older history, totals will deepen

Politics+$13K
Crypto+$3.9K
Culture+$1.4K
Economy+$1.3K
Weather+$511
Finance+$439
Tech+$253
Formula 1+$251
World Cup-$234
NHL+$186
NFL+$152
NBA+$148
Biggest hit
+$835
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?
Toughest beat
-$234
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Recent moves

  • Bought No · Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?$73m ago
  • Bought No · Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027?$255m ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Trump say "Hell" 7+ times during Michigan remarks?$037m ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?$045m ago
  • Bought Yes · Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?$555m ago
  • Bought No · Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in July?$201h ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Trump say "Hell" 7+ times during Michigan remarks?$31h ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$21h ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Cory Mills be the FL-07 Republican nominee?$01h ago
  • Sold No · Will the Malaysian House of Representatives be dissolved by December 31, 2026?$91h ago
  • Bought No · Will Nito Abreu win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?$51h ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Trump say "Hell" 7+ times during Michigan remarks?$121h ago