← Whale Watch

UranusProbe

Predicting since Jun 202511,344 markets tradedPolymarket profile ↗
All-time PnL
+$0
This year
+$0
Last 30 days
+$0
Portfolio value
$0

Deep stats

Bucko Oracle
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Profit over time

What they are betting now

MarketSideStakeEntryNowPnL
Weed rescheduled by December 31?PoliticsNo$23958¢77¢+$77
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?PoliticsNo$25255¢45¢-$48
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?PoliticsNo$15391¢96¢+$8
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?PoliticsNo$15093¢97¢+$7
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$14190¢99¢+$15
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$6750¢92¢+$57
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?PoliticsYes$13088¢83¢-$7
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$10991¢98¢+$8
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?PoliticsNo$8253¢72¢+$29
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?PoliticsNo$7864¢89¢+$31
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?PoliticsNo$10194¢99¢+$6
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?PoliticsNo$8984¢99¢+$16
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?PoliticsNo$9787¢90¢+$4
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?EconomyYes$9179¢85¢+$7
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$9692¢92¢-$1
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?PoliticsNo$9290¢90¢-$0
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?TechNo$8887¢91¢+$3
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?EconomyNo$9491¢83¢-$8
Will Justin Bieber's monthly listeners figure hit 150m by August 31?World CupNo$7387¢99¢+$10
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?PoliticsYes$11378¢57¢-$29
US charges Hormuz fees by August 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$7994¢97¢+$3
Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027?PoliticsYes$7587¢95¢+$6
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?PoliticsNo$9324¢21¢-$12
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?PoliticsNo$7777¢80¢+$2
US takes Panama Canal before 2027?PoliticsNo$7491¢96¢+$5
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?PoliticsNo$7486¢91¢+$4
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30?PoliticsNo$7793¢93¢-$1
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?PoliticsNo$7585¢87¢+$1
Yoon out of custody before 2027?PoliticsNo$7487¢89¢+$2
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$25656¢17¢-$181
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?PoliticsNo$6771¢79¢+$7
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 24?WeatherNo$4358¢100¢+$31
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?PoliticsYes$7685¢81¢-$3
Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?PoliticsNo$6992¢97¢+$3
Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06?PoliticsYes$7194¢96¢+$1
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?PoliticsNo$6590¢99¢+$7
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?PoliticsYes$5150¢69¢+$20
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?PoliticsNo$5070¢99¢+$21
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?PoliticsYes$6883¢86¢+$2
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31?PoliticsNo$6290¢100¢+$7
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$6059¢68¢+$10
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$7578¢72¢-$6
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?PoliticsNo$7463¢59¢-$5
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?PoliticsYes$6492¢99¢+$4
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?PoliticsNo$6484¢88¢+$3
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$6189¢98¢+$6
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?PoliticsYes$6594¢95¢+$1
US military draft authorized in 2026?PoliticsNo$6595¢96¢+$1
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?TechNo$5561¢73¢+$10
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?PoliticsNo$6391¢94¢+$2
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?PoliticsNo$6091¢98¢+$5
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?PoliticsNo$4058¢93¢+$24
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$4676¢99¢+$14
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?PoliticsNo$8171¢53¢-$21
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePoliticsNo$5784¢87¢+$2
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?PoliticsNo$4675¢93¢+$11
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?EconomyNo$5594¢97¢+$2
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?EconomyNo$3741¢62¢+$19
Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?EconomyNo$4251¢69¢+$14
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?PoliticsNo$5764¢63¢-$1
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?EconomyYes$3538¢61¢+$21
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?PoliticsNo$5649¢48¢-$1
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$5380¢83¢+$1
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$5184¢89¢+$3
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?PoliticsNo$4858¢66¢+$6
Will Donald Trump visit India in 2026?PoliticsNo$4881¢91¢+$6
Will GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026?TechNo$5193¢97¢+$2
Will Tyler Kistner be the Republican Nominee for MN-02?PoliticsNo$4790¢100¢+$5
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?PoliticsNo$4586¢99¢+$7
Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?PoliticsYes$5263¢63¢-$1
Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?TechNo$5181¢80¢-$1
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?TechNo$5178¢77¢-$1
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?PoliticsNo$5753¢47¢-$7
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $17.5B by July 31?FinanceNo$4590¢99¢+$5
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$4254¢65¢+$8
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?PoliticsNo$5267¢64¢-$2
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?TechNo$4069¢83¢+$8
Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026?PoliticsNo$5094¢91¢-$2
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?PoliticsNo$4959¢57¢-$1
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?PoliticsNo$4671¢74¢+$2
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?PoliticsYes$4739¢40¢+$0
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?PoliticsYes$4793¢94¢+$0
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?TechYes$4392¢97¢+$2
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.0T?TechNo$4288¢89¢+$0
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?PoliticsYes$5254¢44¢-$10
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?PoliticsYes$5812¢8.5¢-$17
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?PoliticsNo$3680¢92¢+$5
China ballistic missile launch by December 31?PoliticsNo$4179¢80¢+$0
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?EconomyYes$2948¢66¢+$11
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?PoliticsNo$4073¢71¢-$1
Will Congress override any veto in 2026?PoliticsNo$3478¢90¢+$5
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?PoliticsNo$2762¢87¢+$11
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?PoliticsYes$2020¢38¢+$18
Will Helena Foulkes win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Democratic primary election?PoliticsYes$3479¢88¢+$4
Trump out as President before GTA VI?PoliticsYes$3649¢50¢+$0
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?PoliticsNo$5253¢38¢-$16
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $330 end of July?FinanceNo$1225¢74¢+$24
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?PoliticsNo$3442¢44¢+$1
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?PoliticsNo$3356¢59¢+$2
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?PoliticsNo$1441¢99¢+$20

Where the money comes from

Realized + open PnL by category · still crunching older history, totals will deepen

Politics-$190
Crypto-$186
Economy+$67
Tech-$56
Mentions+$48
Finance+$36
Weather-$32
Tennis-$29
UFC / MMA-$26
Soccer (other)-$14
Other sports-$12
Premier League-$11
Biggest hit
+$66
Earthquake 7.0 or above by July 31?
Toughest beat
-$33
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 12PM ET

Recent moves

  • Sold HOTU · Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs HOTU (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries European Qualifier Play-In$01m ago
  • Sold HOTU · Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs HOTU (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries European Qualifier Play-In$24m ago
  • Bought Over · FC København vs. Lyngby BK: O/U 4.5$46m ago
  • Sold Varvara Lepchenko · Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Varvara Lepchenko$07m ago
  • Bought HOTU · Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs HOTU (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries European Qualifier Play-In$27m ago
  • Sold Varvara Lepchenko · Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Varvara Lepchenko$48m ago
  • Sold San Francisco Unicorns · Global Super League: San Francisco Unicorns vs Perth Scorchers XI$08m ago
  • Sold HOTU · Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs HOTU (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries European Qualifier Play-In$09m ago
  • Sold San Francisco Unicorns · Global Super League: San Francisco Unicorns vs Perth Scorchers XI$110m ago
  • Sold HOTU · Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs HOTU (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries European Qualifier Play-In$210m ago
  • Bought HOTU · Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs HOTU (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries European Qualifier Play-In$211m ago
  • Sold HOTU · Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs HOTU (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries European Qualifier Play-In$211m ago