← Whale Watch

0x011f2d377e56119fb09196dffb0948ae5571112

Predicting since Jun 2026210 markets tradedPolymarket profile ↗

Up $82K on Politics markets since Jun 2026.

Right now: $31K across 8 Politics markets.

Biggest hit: +$59K on US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?.

All-time PnL
+$0
This year
+$0
Last 30 days
+$0
Portfolio value
$0

Deep stats

Bucko Oracle
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Profit over time

What they are betting now

MarketSideStakeEntryNowPnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?PoliticsNo$22K39¢43¢+$1.9K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?PoliticsYes$8.4K14¢17¢+$1.5K
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?PoliticsYes$8.4K81¢87¢+$582
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?PoliticsYes$4.1K20¢43¢+$4.8K
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?PoliticsYes$8.1K56¢56¢+$71
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?PoliticsYes$7.0K95¢96¢+$92
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$6.5K76¢81¢+$427
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?PoliticsYes$7.1K45¢44¢-$221
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?PoliticsYes$6.8K100¢100¢+$23
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?PoliticsNo$5.8K58¢63¢+$430
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$5.6K89¢92¢+$170
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?PoliticsNo$4.7K79¢95¢+$930
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$4.6K24¢28¢+$757
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24?PoliticsYes$5.0K100¢100¢+$4
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?PoliticsNo$3.3K66¢99¢+$1.7K
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?PoliticsNo$4.9K99¢99¢+$27
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?PoliticsNo$4.7K93¢99¢+$288
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?PoliticsYes$2.3K9.3¢19¢+$2.5K
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?PoliticsNo$4.1K86¢87¢+$19
Iran leadership change by July 31?PoliticsNo$3.9K98¢99¢+$35
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?PoliticsNo$3.9K96¢97¢+$20
Iran full airspace closure by July 27?PoliticsNo$3.8K94¢97¢+$139
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?PoliticsNo$3.2K64¢72¢+$362
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31?PoliticsNo$3.2K100¢100¢+$4
US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?PoliticsNo$3.1K96¢96¢-$9
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?PoliticsNo$2.8K93¢98¢+$159
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?PoliticsYes$4.0K27¢20¢-$1.1K
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?PoliticsNo$2.7K89¢95¢+$175
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$3.3K65¢56¢-$426
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?PoliticsNo$2.8K93¢94¢+$15
US strike on Cuba by December 31?PoliticsYes$3.5K44¢33¢-$904
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 30?PoliticsYes$2.0K85¢89¢+$81
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by August 31?PoliticsNo$1.9K96¢97¢+$8
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?PoliticsNo$1.6K92¢91¢-$23
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?PoliticsNo$1.4K70¢80¢+$187
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?PoliticsNo$1.5K94¢95¢+$8
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$1.4K63¢65¢+$34
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?PoliticsYes$1.1K35¢44¢+$241
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 28?PoliticsYes$93093¢95¢+$15
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?PoliticsYes$59447¢69¢+$288
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?PoliticsNo$1.1K38¢27¢-$326
Iran full airspace closure by August 15?PoliticsNo$54858¢77¢+$185
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?PoliticsYes$62498¢99¢+$4
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?TechYes$00.0¢32¢+$620
Iran invades Kuwait by July 31?PoliticsNo$50099¢99¢+$0
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?PoliticsNo$67413¢7.5¢-$297
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$14912¢25¢+$155
Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?PoliticsNo$25486¢91¢+$13
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026?PoliticsNo$24097¢96¢-$4
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?PoliticsYes$1.9K6.7¢0.7¢-$1.7K
Congress approves Iran deal in 2026?PoliticsNo$17388¢87¢-$2
Will the U.S. lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by July 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$16096¢97¢+$1
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?PoliticsYes$1500.8¢0.7¢-$20
Will the U.S. lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$8745¢65¢+$39
Will a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?PoliticsNo$10997¢97¢+$1
Will the U.S. lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by October 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$6160¢69¢+$10
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in July?CryptoYes$1110.6¢0.4¢-$46
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in July?CryptoYes$622.0¢1.7¢-$11
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? PoliticsYes$510.9¢0.6¢-$18
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$2423¢22¢-$1
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in July?CryptoYes$341.0¢0.5¢-$15
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$37520¢0.4¢-$368
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?PoliticsNo$578¢88¢+$1
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?PoliticsYes$434.9¢0.5¢-$38
Will Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?MentionsYes$1175.9¢0.1¢-$116
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Primary?PoliticsNoResolved$6835¢0.0¢-$68
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$2.9K20¢0.0¢-$2.9K
Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?World CupYesResolved$1680.3¢0.0¢-$168
Israel closes its airspace by June 14?PoliticsYesResolved$7235.6¢0.0¢-$723
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?PoliticsYesResolved$204.4¢0.0¢-$20
Iran full airspace closure by July 24?PoliticsYesResolved$2216.1¢0.0¢-$221
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$30919¢0.0¢-$309
Will Trump accuse China of election interference by July 16?PoliticsNoResolved$190.6¢0.0¢-$19
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?PoliticsYesResolved$1.6K1.5¢0.0¢-$1.6K
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$525.2¢0.0¢-$52
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$73518¢0.0¢-$735
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?World CupYesResolved$2705.4¢0.0¢-$270
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?PoliticsYesResolved$1452.9¢0.0¢-$145
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?World CupYesResolved$954.7¢0.0¢-$95
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?PoliticsYesResolved$53319¢0.0¢-$533
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?PoliticsYesResolved$8.8K58¢0.0¢-$8.8K
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 12, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$2353.6¢0.0¢-$235
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 16?PoliticsNoResolved$552.9¢0.0¢-$55
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?World CupNoResolved$901.7¢0.0¢-$90
Iran leadership change by June 30?PoliticsYesResolved$00.0¢0.0¢+$0
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)UFC / MMADerrick LewisResolved$505.0¢0.0¢-$50
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?PoliticsYesResolved$2.8K6.9¢0.0¢-$2.8K
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$3.1K12¢0.0¢-$3.1K
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$24.6¢0.0¢-$2
Will France win the World Cup?World CupYesResolved$10.5¢0.0¢-$1
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?PoliticsYesResolved$71814¢0.0¢-$718
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$1331.6¢0.0¢-$133
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?PoliticsNoResolved$1.1K32¢0.0¢-$1.1K
England vs. Argentina: O/U 0.5World CupUnderResolved$69023¢0.0¢-$690
Will Graham Platner drop out before the Midterms?PoliticsNoResolved$3.6K7.8¢0.0¢-$3.6K
France vs. England: Team to WinWorld CupFranceResolved$2304.6¢0.0¢-$230
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$3193.2¢0.0¢-$319
Will Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?World CupNoResolved$684.2¢0.0¢-$68
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?PoliticsYesResolved$00.0¢0.0¢+$0
Will Argentina win the World Cup?World CupYesResolved$34420¢0.0¢-$344

Where the money comes from

Realized + open PnL by category

Politics+$82K
World Cup+$6.8K
Finance+$6.3K
Tech-$838
Mentions-$116
NFL-$101
Crypto-$73
UFC / MMA-$45
Biggest hit
+$59K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Toughest beat
-$9.0K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Recent moves

  • Sold Yes · Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$37m ago
  • Bought Yes · NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$812m ago
  • Bought Yes · NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$9412m ago
  • Bought Yes · NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$6212m ago
  • Bought Yes · Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$38218m ago
  • Sold Yes · Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$3218m ago
  • Bought No · IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by August 31?$96218m ago
  • Bought No · IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by August 31?$79818m ago
  • Sold Yes · US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? $237m ago
  • Sold Yes · US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? $637m ago
  • MERGE Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?$2.8K54m ago
  • Bought Yes · Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?$81254m ago